Jump to content
The Weather Forums

April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

Not sure if it was mentioned but PDX set a new crooked number for consecutive 70+ degree days in April with eight.  New runner up is six from April 25-30, 2004.  Also a raging nina.🤔

Never seen soils this bone dry this early. Decent chance they won’t be this dry again until July.

  • Sad 1
  • Sun 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not sure if it was mentioned but PDX set a new crooked number for consecutive 70+ degree days in April with eight.  New runner up is six from April 25-30, 2004.  Also a raging nina.🤔

Never seen soils this bone dry this early. Decent chance they won’t be this dry again until July.

Yeah... we have been building our raised beds and the ground in the garden area is dusty right now.    That is usually reserved for late July and August here.    And probably will be again this year once it starts raining.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice evening. Front lawn looking good after 2 days of watering. 

CA822ABC-376E-4F00-9947-90D916CC0345.jpeg

0ABCB02E-D1B1-4320-B5F6-F4788F3476FE.jpeg

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we have been building our raised beds and the ground in the garden area is dusty right now.    That is usually reserved for late July and August here.    And probably will be again this year once it starts raining.

Got our big landscape project done about six weeks earlier than I had gamed out though.  Ready for winter!

  • Snow 1
  • Downvote 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we have been building our raised beds and the ground in the garden area is dusty right now.    That is usually reserved for late July and August here.    And probably will be again this year once it starts raining.

Building up a lot of cold/wet karma. 🌊 

  • lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d say there’s 60/40 chance May ends up cooler/wetter than average for the first time since the 2010-12 period.

Would be a much higher confidence forecast if it weren’t for the late month MJO excursion back thru the Pacific/WHEM.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice evening. Front lawn looking good after 2 days of watering. 

CA822ABC-376E-4F00-9947-90D916CC0345.jpeg

0ABCB02E-D1B1-4320-B5F6-F4788F3476FE.jpeg

 

Utterly insane that you would still pretend to need to be watering after 6-7 weeks where it has scantly rained!

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
  • Storm 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Caught this little nymph poking his/her head out thru one of the holes.

Getting close to emergence. Maybe 3 weeks out?

B1EB3146-A920-46A3-AE0B-CC00E56D4346.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Caught this little nymph poking his/her head out thru one of the holes.

Getting close to emergence. Maybe 3 weeks out?

B1EB3146-A920-46A3-AE0B-CC00E56D4346.jpeg

Is that the larval four corners high?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the trend the models are showing of wanting to merge the high latitude / Aleutian blocking with the Pacific High in week two.  NW flow brings my absolute favorite weather in the spring and summer.

  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope you are all happy now... the marine air came inland and OLM was 7 degrees above normal on their low temperature this morning.   Not worth it if OLM warms up!  Side note... I was surprised to see the average low temp there is still 38.     

Still clear here but the clouds are are just over the ridge.    The ECMWF is still showing sun by afternoon with highs in the mid 60s for most of the area.    

And the 00Z ECMWF showed very little rain from Sunday morning all the way through Thursday morning.    This upcoming wet period has become a mostly dry period.  I hope the rain on Saturday can over-perform.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I like the trend the models are showing of wanting to merge the high latitude / Aleutian blocking with the Pacific High in week two.  NW flow brings my absolute favorite weather in the spring and summer.

Going to really need to some wet SW flow at some point... maybe May can deliver.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Utterly insane that you would still pretend to need to be watering after 6-7 weeks where it has scantly rained!

I didn't say he was pretending... I was said its not necessary water the grass yet at 1,600 feet.     There has still been a few inches of rain up there in that period.   And going 6-7 weeks without rain in July and August is very different than in March and April when everything has been in winter dormancy up there for most of that time anyways.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I didn't say he was pretending... I was said its not necessary water yet at 1,600 feet.     There has still been a few inches of rain up there in that period.   And going 6-7 weeks without rain in July and August is very different than in March and April when everything has been in winter dormancy up there for most of that time anyways.    

You also have to remember how things went into dormancy here. The second week of September under less than ideal conditions. It’s been a hard year for vegetation down here on many levels.

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You also have to remember how things went into dormancy here. The second week of September under less than ideal conditions. It’s been a hard year for vegetation down here on many levels.

No argument there.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest SSTA map shows the water has warmed up off the West Coast.    The 7-day change map on Tropical Tidbits shows the same thing.     

I just checked Ocean Shores... water temp is 53.2 degrees right now and normal is around 51 in late April.  

 

2021 (6).png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (3).png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Not sure if it was mentioned but PDX set a new crooked number for consecutive 70+ degree days in April with eight.  New runner up is six from April 25-30, 2004.  Also a raging nina.🤔

Never seen soils this bone dry this early. Decent chance they won’t be this dry again until July.

They also recorded six consecutive April 16-21, 2016. Some really old school stuff.

  • lol 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Crazy to think Medford will see their first April rain on 04/23, let's all get a good soaking!

  • Like 2

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

They also recorded six consecutive April 16-21, 2016. Some really old school stuff.

April 2016 was a LOT more colorful however. Aside from the odd cherry bloom, there is almost nothing now.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

April 2016 was a LOT more colorful however. Aside from the odd cherry bloom, there is almost nothing now.

Yeah even though that month was a lot warmer on the whole it was a soaker compared to this one so far. I think the unusually low dewpoints have also worked to dry things out. A lot of newly emerged leaves here already look wilted. Hopefully what little rain we get Saturday can perk things up some.

  • Storm 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You also have to remember how things went into dormancy here. The second week of September under less than ideal conditions. It’s been a hard year for vegetation down here on many levels.

Yup this has been an ongoing picture since September here. #6 driest start to Fall on record, on top of a significantly dry start to Spring.

122913917_3435451099870769_1167298595839789429_n.png

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice evening. Front lawn looking good after 2 days of watering. 

CA822ABC-376E-4F00-9947-90D916CC0345.jpeg

0ABCB02E-D1B1-4320-B5F6-F4788F3476FE.jpeg

That pig has been well fed by the looks of it 🤪

  • Excited 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Got down to 47 this morning currently 50 and cloudy for the first time in awhile. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

Link to post
Share on other sites

With this kind of headline and AFD you'd think this is late June in southern OR.

WeatherStory1 (2).png

2021-04-22 08_43_41-Window.png

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

 Euro shows us getting 1” of rain through the end of the month. That would still put me in driest April ive recorded territory. Current record is 1.51”.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Latest SSTA map shows the water has warmed up off the West Coast.    The 7-day change map on Tropical Tidbits shows the same thing.     

I just checked Ocean Shores... water temp is 53.2 degrees right now and normal is around 51 in late April.  

 

2021 (6).png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (3).png

Why are you using 2 different sources for SSTAs when the tropical tidbits SSTA map is literally on the same page as the 7-day change map? :huh:

Here’s the correct SSTA map.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z EPS mean. Nice retrograding anticyclone in the LR.

AA172FD2-790B-4B8E-BCF9-DEE76D86BA02.gif

I sense another warm period coming around the second week of May.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phil said:

Why are you using 2 different sources for SSTAs when the tropical tidbits SSTA map is literally on the same page as the 7-day change map? :huh:

Here’s the correct SSTA map.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

It shows the same picture... the WB version seems to be higher resolution but I don't see a 7-day change map on WB.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I sense another warm period coming around the second week of May.

I don’t see anything sustained. Maybe a few days here and there but the tropical forcing isn’t western ridge favorable at that time.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:

I don’t see anything sustained. Maybe a few days here and there. 

I see sustained warmth May-September. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Phil said:

And those warmer waters are quite shallow. They’ll likely be mixed out quickly with the changing pattern.

In general SW flow tends to warm water off our coast.    And that is the basic pattern for the next week.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It shows the same picture... the WB version seems to be higher resolution but I don't see a 7-day change map on WB.

 

One is OISSTv2 the other is CDAS. The former WxBell OISSTv2 maps have a warm bias increasing w/ poleward latitude.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phil said:

One is OISSTv2 the other is CDAS. The former WxBell OISSTv2 maps have a warm bias increasing w/ poleward latitude.

Same general picture.   

And I cross-referenced with actual SST data.   It actual is a little warmer than normal off the WA coast now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In general SW flow tends to warm water off our coast.    And that is the basic pattern for the next week.  

It’s not just SW flow. It’s the pressure gradient over the N-Pacific w/ respect to the eastern boundary current. The previous pattern was perfect to slow the boundary current w/ inverted wind stress.

This upcoming pattern is more analogous to a suppressed anticyclone (which morphs into a true anticyclone/-PNA). I’ll bet you dollars to donuts those waters cool over the next 10 days. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:

It’s not just SW flow. It’s the pressure gradient over the N-Pacific w/ respect to the eastern boundary current. The previous pattern was perfect to slow the boundary current w/ inverted wind stress. This upcoming pattern is more analogous to a suppressed anticyclone (which morphs into a true anticyclone/-PNA).

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts those waters cool over the next 10 days. 

Got it... time will tell!  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same general picture.   

And I cross-referenced with actual SST data.   It actual is a little warmer than normal off the WA coast now.    

But the one I posted is more accurate.

Just..try post the correct source next time. :) 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Phil said:

But the one I posted is more accurate.

Just..post the correct source next time.

Either way... its all about the trends.    Both maps tell the same story.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Either way... its all about the trends.    Both maps tell the same story.

They don’t tell the same story, though. Not exactly.

If you’re taking an CDAS 7-day SSTA change map, you should supplement that with the actual CDAS SSTA map, not a map from a completely different data source.

Because then you’re not telling the same story. You’re telling two different stories.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Phil said:

They don’t tell the same story, though. Not exactly.

If you’re taking an CDAS 7-day SSTA change map, you should supplement that with the actual CDAS SSTA map, not a map from a completely different data source.

Because then you’re not telling the same story. You’re telling two different stories.

Not true.   

Same story.    Water warmed up... I have no idea how long it will last but it actually is warmer than normal now.    According to you it will be crashing soon.  Time will tell!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro has now come inline with the GFS for precip totals in the Sierra for this weekends storm. What is interesting is that the GFS has been the first to pickup on changes whether it be drier or wetter for storms 7+ days out in our area. The Euro then falls in line with the GFS direction 1-3 days later. Is the new GFS upgrade superior to the Euro? The Euro was almost twice as wet for our area the last couple of days until matching the GFS this morning. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...