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April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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Those GOA/NE-Pacific SSTAs are gonna tank real good if this verifies. Soaks up a lot of OHC to moderate that airmass coming out of AK.

EBD3CF87-BAA2-4B57-81ED-309FD8EEBFA7.png

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For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

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This is impressive for an ensemble mean at D6.

Verbatim this depicts -34C 850mb temperatures over Alaska..very cold by mid-April standards. 🥶 

1E9A268A-0B43-4E5A-80EA-84D63466E5C4.png

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Those GOA/NE-Pacific SSTAs are gonna tank real good if this verifies. Soaks up a lot of OHC to moderate that airmass coming out of AK.

EBD3CF87-BAA2-4B57-81ED-309FD8EEBFA7.png

The PDO is already low and will probably fall off the charts if this happens.  Any onshore flow events this summer should have a good bite to them blowing off that cold ocean.  Hopefully 2011 like.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The ECMWF is really running with the idea of Sunday night being exceptionally chilly for this time of year.  Another case of an amazingly fast clear out behind a significant cold front.  The most impressive is how long it shows some places remaining below freezing that night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Holy crap!  The ECMWF shows a low of 20 for Arlington on this run on day 9.  The 500mb setup sure looks like record low potential in general.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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00Z EPS still showed an eventual pattern change... with the west warming up while the rest of the country cools down.    

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8272000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8704000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently 45 degrees and cloudy. I had snow falling on this day one year ago. Anyway even though it has been a bit chilly I am quite thankful that it hasn’t been endless days of heavy drizzle and rain...Like it usually is. I’m sure we will pay for that in the next month and my dogs will be back to 90% covered in mud instead of their current 40% covered in mud status. 

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS still showed an eventual pattern change... with the west warming up while the rest of the country cools down.    

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8272000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8704000.png

Let’s hope so! 

FA784A3A-122D-47FD-92CE-030707635E12.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

3rd morning in a row with a low of 40. 

Had a low of 37 here. Like I have mentioned before...I have spent more time in the 30’s over the last two months than the October-January timeframe. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS still showed an eventual pattern change... with the west warming up while the rest of the country cools down.    

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8272000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8704000.png

These poor fir trees down here sure need more dry weather.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The models are showing some OMG cold for this time of year.  The 12z GFS has 850s dropping to -8 with northerly surface gradients.  That dump of cold air from AK beforehand is insane.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Almost 20 degrees warmer in South Dakota than Florida today.

 

FB_IMG_1617464588051.jpg

Amplified regime to say the least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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This looks like it might be the spring I have dreamed of.  It's exhibiting come of the behavior of the absolute classics if you like late cold and lots of frost.  The real test will be if we can still pull off some of this in May.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

PDX running +4.8 for April so far.

That is shocking.  I'm about -0.5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

3rd morning in a row with a low of 40. 

So far this month it has been 35, 36, 37 here.  Obviously tomorrow will have an evening low and Monday will have widespread frost.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Everything is shocking. 

I guess with PDX overachieving temps isn't.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Looks like SEA is +1.8 for the first couple days of the month.

OLM is right at average.

Pretty obvious this is going to change big time.  Try to enjoy the fact we have something special coming if the models are correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Pretty incredible that the 0z ECMWF and 12z GFS both spit out a low below 24 for Arlington after April 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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GFS ensemble bottoms out at -6.5.  Incredible mean for this late.  This might end up being quite impressive.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty incredible that the 0z ECMWF and 12z GFS both spit out a low below 24 for Arlington after April 10.

Euro does show some pretty chilly lows for this time of year on and off the next 10 days. Will be interesting to see if they verify. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Already up to 53 so far. Past 6 days have all been pretty similar with varying degrees of sunshine and warm afternoons. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Already almost 60 in North Bend and mostly sunny.    It's been partly to mostly sunny for most of the last 6 days.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already almost 60 in North Bend and mostly sunny.    It's been partly to mostly sunny for most of the last 6 days.    

Bad timing on your Vegas trip, then.

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I just noticed we had a 51 degree spread on March 31st when the low was 20 and high 71.

I have only experienced 50+ diurnal changes during Indian Summers until this point. That has to be impressive both for March and overall in spring.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bad timing on your Vegas trip, then.

Yeah... it has been really nice since we left.    But tomorrow looks sort of crappy so we get to miss one of our endless string of cold and wet Sundays.     It's been perfect here so that is good.   Next weekend would be the one to miss at home.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like it's going to come down to details on whether we are able to put up some historic numbers in the 5 to 10 day period.  The pieces are there on all of the models.  All runs show impressive low temps and at least a couple of notable chilly max temps.  If the cold air dump from AK takes just the right track to us it could get pretty real for this time of year.

  • Storm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I just noticed we had a 51 degree spread on March 31st when the low was 20 and high 71.

I have only experienced 50+ diurnal changes during Indian Summers until this point. That has to be impressive both for March and overall in spring.

This is really neat stuff to me at least.  No doubt has a 1951 flavor to it.

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks like the ECMWF has added Monday night to the freeze list now.  It also shows some places getting to freezing before midnight tomorrow night.  Some places could easily get 3 more freezing low temps over the next few days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The ECMWF shows a 43 / 32 type day for several places in the Puget Sound area next Friday.  Pretty eye popping.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looking like another 6-8 degree above average high temp today. Looking forward to the cool down closer to average tomorrow. Wish it was coming with some rain.

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Came in for drinks... see its pretty warm at home despite being in the most epic cold pattern ever. ;)

Screenshot_20210403-125745_Chrome.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a 43 / 32 type day for several places in the Puget Sound area next Friday.  Pretty eye popping.

I had a 43 degree high on 04/28/2018 (also a cold core t'storm with a nice hailstorm I got on video). It sure felt chilly out there, and that was only two days after we had a high of 82 in K-Falls. I think overall that wasn't a very cool month, but sure had a couple interesting moments. I didn't have any accumulating snowfall that April but had some wet snow in there.

  • Storm 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
Apr '21 - 00.50"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I had a 43 degree high on 04/28/2018 (also a cold core t'storm with a nice hailstorm I got on video). It sure felt chilly out there, and that was only two days after we had a high of 82 in K-Falls. I think overall that wasn't a very cool month, but sure had a couple interesting moments.

Barrow, Alaska, another climate very similar to ours, had a 43 degree high on 7/1/20.

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Hope this is right this time...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8747200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the 12Z EPS isn't quite as fast to push troughing off to the east next weekend as the operational run. Hope to see that idea get built upon.

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Up to 61 currently...just another degree warmer and it’ll be the warmest of the year so far. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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Gonna be interesting going from the low 60s today to upper 40s tomorrow. Wish the nice day this weekend had been sunday instead of today but oh well. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Came in for drinks... see its pretty warm at home despite being in the most epic cold pattern ever. ;)

Screenshot_20210403-125745_Chrome.jpg

Whatcha drinking?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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