Jump to content
The Weather Forums

April 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For everywhere wondering/speculating about where I have been, I am very flattered We have been on a road trip to Grand Teton and Yellowstone this week. Took a nice week off before starting a new

Getting married tomorrow so that’s why I’ve not been around a ton of late. Looks like we are about 68F out there and are ready for some much-needed rainfall overnight.

Well I haven't been around in a while. Been a little, erm, preoccupied. Hope everyone's enjoying the sunshine and warmth lately! I'll be in Arizona for the weekend, and hopeful I don't melt!

Posted Images

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope this is right this time...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8747200.png

It’s real. Then another one late-month into first part of May which (imo) will be more stable. So about 3 out of the 4 weeks from April 15 to May 15 will probably average warm.

  • Like 3
  • Downvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s real. Then another one late-month into first part of May which (imo) will be more stable. So about 3 out of the 4 weeks from April 15 to May 15 will probably average warm.

Hoping you are as wrong as you have been about some of your busted cold calls ;)

Although forecasting warmth is a much safer statistical bet anywhere these days.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z GFS continues the theme of unseasonable cold for the 5 to 10 day period.  As I've said if that cold air from AK tracks properly this could be one for the record books.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hoping you are as wrong as you have been about some of your busted cold calls ;)

Although forecasting warmth is a much safer statistical bet anywhere these days.

We are in a general below normal regime though.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Some really impressive surface temps on the 18z GFS.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

70 degrees again at PDX today.

Brrrrrr!!!!!!

I said general.  The last two months were below normal, and tomorrow will be dramatically cooler.  You're not seeing the forest through the trees right now.

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

70 degrees again at PDX today.

Brrrrrr!!!!!!

Yeah from what I can tell most places the nights have been below average-average recently but the daytime highs have been warm enough to knock out any negative departures. The freezes at the end of last month were somewhat impressive but other than that hasn’t been anything too crazy IMO. 

  • Like 1

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

Link to post
Share on other sites

63/40 today...was some sun earlier but it’s clouded up now. Doesn’t really feel muggy though DP is 38.

  • Like 1

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

Link to post
Share on other sites

I will admit I'd be bit peeved if I lived somewhere that has torched so far this month.  All in all right about normal for the first three days here.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah from what I can tell most places the nights have been below average-average recently but the daytime highs have been warm enough to knock out any negative departures. The freezes at the end of last month were somewhat impressive but other than that hasn’t been anything too crazy IMO. 

Another impressive cold front tomorrow, and frost fairly early in the night for many places.  Let's wait and see how it all averages out.

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another impressive cold front tomorrow, and frost fairly early in the night for many places.  Let's wait and see how it all averages out.

The stuff advertised so far this month looks pretty chilly. 

  • Like 1

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah from what I can tell most places the nights have been below average-average recently but the daytime highs have been warm enough to knock out any negative departures. The freezes at the end of last month were somewhat impressive but other than that hasn’t been anything too crazy IMO. 

This seems like a very reasonable take.

For me the fact that it has been a massive uphill battle to even get modestly below average temps in the time of year it should be a relative slam dunk given the ENSO state says a lot.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably the most impressive stat I have come up with so far is I've only had 8 mins above 40 since January 12th.  I'd have to check but that could easily be a new bench mark for my records.

No way to argue against the fact the mins have been impressive, and will continue to be so for a while yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This seems like a very reasonable take.

For me the fact that it has been a massive uphill battle to even get modestly below average temps in the time of year it should be a relative slam dunk given the ENSO state says a lot.

You have to remember we have had below normal 850s a high percentage of the time.  We are in the time of year that days can be warm in spite of that when it's dry like it's been.  I happen to like the cold night sunny day regime this time of year.  We end up with some really cool max temps as well, but  a lot of max temps end up above normal due to sunshine not, because the air mass is warm.

I think you will feel much better 10 days from now although we may have a warm spell in sight by then...but maybe not.  At any rate the models are spitting out some really impressive numbers coming up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The stuff advertised so far this month looks pretty chilly. 

Indeed. We’ve gotten through the hard part which is getting it to show up on the mid range in the models. Now all it has to do is verify which is always a cake walk. ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Port Angeles is down to 47 now.  Cooler air already getting close.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Indeed. We’ve gotten through the hard part which is getting it to show up on the mid range in the models. Now all it has to do is verify which is always a cake walk. ;)

I'm really pulling for the details to go right with this.  That cold air dump from AK that is being shown is quite something.  It's hard to believe some places will be seeing afternoon temps in the low to mid 40s tomorrow with a widespread freeze again tomorrow night.  Classic roller coaster.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Hoping you are as wrong as you have been about some of your busted cold calls ;)

Although forecasting warmth is a much safer statistical bet anywhere these days.

I was wrong about wet 2nd half of March. Could easily happen again.

Though colder than average temps have been the rule out there this spring. So that hasn’t busted yet.

  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Jesse said:

70 degrees again at PDX today.

Brrrrrr!!!!!!

Are you suggesting warm days can happen in overall cool regimes?? Impossible. 😱

  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Only 69 at PDX so far. Lame. Hopefully they just rip the band aid off and go for it.

This could potentially cost us a Hanukkah snow flurry couldn’t it Matt? 😢 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Ensemble mean is now -7.1 on the 11th.  Wow!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

60% of the analogs on the CPC 6 to 10 day outlook are pre 1965.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Coldest ECMWF run yet for tomorrow night.  It shows McChord dropping to 27.  Not a bad result from a little trough digging though.  Right now it's 33 degrees at a location on Vancouver Island that is only 1800 feet.  Nice cold front.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Only 69 at PDX so far. Lame. Hopefully they just rip the band aid off and go for it.

This could potentially cost us a Hanukkah snow flurry couldn’t it Matt? 😢 

You seem really anxious about the season change. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

First mow of the season along with the first car washing since January! Also first time spraying weeds in 8yrs since leaving the landscaping field...But now it’s a vinegar mixture instead of chemicals. I now get nauseous when I smell roundup or Casoron which I’m sure is my body warning me that after thousands of gallons (or pounds of casoron) that I have applied that if I am around it anymore I will become walking cancer timebomb. Anyway it worked quite well, the weeds were cooked by the end of the day! 

7CEBBC6C-A35E-45DE-8FEA-358FE91F9DD9.jpeg

755DB075-3051-4306-8908-F563875168B7.jpeg

3886CF41-1519-43BA-99AB-A763B23ABA5D.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You seem really anxious about the season change. 

You seem really anxious about other people seeming anxious.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MossMan said:

April 2008 repeat! 

This looks colder than that.  Potentially historic cold for this late in the season!

Incredibly the ensemble mean is -7.2 on the 0z run and the operational drops to -9 on the 850s.  Some places could see their coldest April mins in over 50 years with this pattern coming up.  Even the tiny appetizer tomorrow and tomorrow night looks cold.  Wow!

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think people have fully grasped just how amazingly cold that trough is being modeled later next week.  Looks totally incredible for this time of year right now.  Multiple runs of all models have shown places in the Western lowlands getting into the low to mid 20s with numerous freezes in many places.

This is about the most stoked I've ever been this late in the season.  as most of you know I normally lose interest by now.

Can't wait to see how this all plays out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

D**n I love cold anomalies!  In case you couldn't tell.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MossMan said:

April 2008 repeat! 

The Snoqualmie Valley had barely squeaked out one single 60-degree day to this point in 2008.    We have had 9 days above 60 since March 1st this year... including 66 today.    

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't think people have fully grasped just how amazingly cold that trough is being modeled later next week.  Looks totally incredible for this time of year right now.  Multiple runs of all models have shown places in the Western lowlands getting into the low to mid 20s with numerous freezes in many places.

This is about the most stoked I've ever been this late in the season.  as most of you know I normally lose interest by now.

Can't wait to see how this all plays out.

518 thicknesses at SEA is definitely pretty nuts for April 12th.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Ksea

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF does not show any meaningful lowland snow... maybe some ice pellet showers.  

Looks like the really wet periods are Wednesday night and Friday night on this run.   We sneak in a pretty nice day on Thursday between lobes of the main trough.    

Also looks like a ridge is building in by Saturday night... so we might flip the script next weekend with Sunday being the nicer day.  😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

The cold gets very continental on the ECMWF.  Very hard to pull off significant continental cold so late in the season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

518 thicknesses at SEA is definitely pretty nuts for April 12th.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Ksea

I think this has potential to put up some great numbers.  Some lowland snow is a quite possible at some point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Snoqualmie Valley had barely squeaked out one single 60-degree day to this point in 2008.    We have had 9 days above 60 since March 1st this year... including 66 today.    

This year is much more of a roller coaster for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure looks like some places could have 10+ freezing mins this month.   Top drawer stuff for April.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we have a decent chance of April ending up normal or even warmer than normal.    One chilly week can be easily erased if we get into a pattern favorable for western ridge for 2 or 3 weeks as Phil has been indicating.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites

Side note... the 00Z ECMWF shows a decent chance at mid to upper 60s by day 9 and 10.   Maybe even 70.   Its not all cold and wet. 👍

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think this has potential to put up some great numbers.  Some lowland snow is a quite possible at some point.

That sounds wonderful honestly. I hope you guys up north get what you enjoy.

  • Like 1
 

My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.38" (as of 5/16/21)

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.89" (11 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Mild low of 45 overnight. Had some sprinkles overnight but no measurable rainfall. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-1

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.57”

Warm Season Rainfall-1.73”

Warmest high temp-80

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...