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January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm


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Ok, the baroclinic zone will be a major player for this so wherever this sets up shop is where the best frontal snows will be. The less progressive and slower the system the better it will be for us. As of now I don't know what to think.

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Really too far out to be favoring any models yet, IMO. Still 8 days away from this occurring. Could be a monster storm, but I could see it not being one as well and more surpressed. I'll start thinking about who to side with later in the week, but for now, way too early and way too many model runs to go.

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Really too far out to be favoring any models yet, IMO. Still 8 days away from this occurring. Could be a monster storm, but I could see it not being one as well and more surpressed. I'll start thinking about who to side with later in the week, but for now, way too early and way too many model runs to go.

Actually I believe this topic is for this Friday's system

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There's 3 systems.

 

One that is between HR 72 and 96 which produces 1-3 inches of snow or so for IA/IL/S. WI 

 

System #2 (between HR 96 and 120) GGEM and ECMWF have a sub 1000 mb low cutter while the GFS/UKMET are suppressed. ECMWF/GGEM would give IL/S. WI 4-8+ of snow. 

 

System #3 (HR 180-216) is the big dog system at the end of the period. 

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LOT is going with EURO/GEM

 

AVE LEANED WITH AN EC/GEM BLEND FOR HANDLING THU NIGHT-FRI
NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING A DRAPED WEST-TO-
EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH 12Z RUNS OF THESE
MODELS...SIMILAR TO 00Z...DEVELOP A RESPONSE ALONG THIS WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LONG WAVE.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW LIKELIES AT
THIS TIME.

 

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48.2 for season

 

January is 4th snowiest month all time

 

What do we have to beat to get to 1st, 2nd or 3rd?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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 here you go -- 

 

RANK AMOUNT MONTH AND YEAR

---------------------------------

1) 42.5" JANUARY 1918

2) 40.4" JANUARY 1979

3) 33.3" DECEMBER 1951

*4) 33.1" JANUARY 2014

5) 32.3" JANUARY 1978

 

Thanks. Definitely can get to 3rd place.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like the 1st wave on Thursday will lay down about an inch or two with a little more farther north into WI.

I think this wave we'll have a large effect on the second wave. A further north solution would likely push the second wave further north. Plus I just don't buy the strength of the high pressure on the GFS so hopefully we will have a better idea about the second wave today.

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I think this wave we'll have a large effect on the second wave. A further north solution would likely push the second wave further north. Plus I just don't buy the strength of the high pressure on the GFS so hopefully we will have a better idea about the second wave today.

You are probably right Scott, the GFS is way too strong with that high pressure compared to the Euro/Gem. I'm guessing the GFS will probably start to come around the next run or two but it has been inching its way north.

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Should be a nice cutter. 

 

1004 low in TX/OK border with no blocking at all to the north like the past runs showed. 

Yup, less high pressure so it's coming in north and amped. Should be a pretty decent run for all of us.

 

 Edit: Nice hit Detroit

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I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere.

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I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere.

 

Thursday system came in with more qpf as well.

 

Could very well be a 2-3 inch snow on Thu and then 4-8 or so for the highest snows for this system.

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