January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[Money]

Time for a thread.

 

GFS/UKMET vs EURO/GGEM

 

Which models will win? Will Chicago get buried? 

 

Discuss.

[Tony]

Ok, the baroclinic zone will be a major player for this so wherever this sets up shop is where the best frontal snows will be. The less progressive and slower the system the better it will be for us. As of now I don't know what to think.

[East Dubzz]

Really too far out to be favoring any models yet, IMO. Still 8 days away from this occurring. Could be a monster storm, but I could see it not being one as well and more surpressed. I'll start thinking about who to side with later in the week, but for now, way too early and way too many model runs to go.

[Money]

This is for the one within 84-120 hours out or so.

[Tony]

Really too far out to be favoring any models yet, IMO. Still 8 days away from this occurring. Could be a monster storm, but I could see it not being one as well and more surpressed. I'll start thinking about who to side with later in the week, but for now, way too early and way too many model runs to go.

Actually I believe this topic is for this Friday's system

[Money]

There's 3 systems.

 

One that is between HR 72 and 96 which produces 1-3 inches of snow or so for IA/IL/S. WI 

 

System #2 (between HR 96 and 120) GGEM and ECMWF have a sub 1000 mb low cutter while the GFS/UKMET are suppressed. ECMWF/GGEM would give IL/S. WI 4-8+ of snow. 

 

System #3 (HR 180-216) is the big dog system at the end of the period. 

[East Dubzz]

Oh, you're right. My bad on that!!

[Money]

NAM looks more impressive for the HR 60-84 period. 35 dbz showing up at HR 66 in E. IA

[Geos]

This is the 1st one.

 

 

 

[Tom]

18z NAM...

 

 

[Tony]

18z NAM looking like a couple inches for the 1st system

 

^Beat me to it Tom

[DominicR]

What is ORD sitting at right now on the season?

[ChicagoToSeattle]

What is ORD sitting at right now on the season?

48.2 for season

 

January is 4th snowiest month all time

[Tom]

If the 12z GGEM transpires through Saturday, it will be the all time snowiest month.  I believe we need 10 more inches to hit #1.

[DominicR]

LOT is going with EURO/GEM

 

AVE LEANED WITH AN EC/GEM BLEND FOR HANDLING THU NIGHT-FRI
NIGHT WHICH IS WHEN THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING A DRAPED WEST-TO-
EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH 12Z RUNS OF THESE
MODELS...SIMILAR TO 00Z...DEVELOP A RESPONSE ALONG THIS WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LONG WAVE.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THE FRI/FRI NIGHT PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW LIKELIES AT
THIS TIME.

 

[Money]

18z GFS looks quite a bit different than 12z GFS.

[Geos]

48.2 for season

 

January is 4th snowiest month all time

 

What do we have to beat to get to 1st, 2nd or 3rd?

[ChicagoToSeattle]

What do we have to beat to get to 1st, 2nd or 3rd?

 here you go -- 

 

RANK AMOUNT MONTH AND YEAR

---------------------------------

1) 42.5" JANUARY 1918

2) 40.4" JANUARY 1979

3) 33.3" DECEMBER 1951

*4) 33.1" JANUARY 2014

5) 32.3" JANUARY 1978

[Geos]

 here you go -- 

 

RANK AMOUNT MONTH AND YEAR

---------------------------------

1) 42.5" JANUARY 1918

2) 40.4" JANUARY 1979

3) 33.3" DECEMBER 1951

*4) 33.1" JANUARY 2014

5) 32.3" JANUARY 1978

 

Thanks. Definitely can get to 3rd place.

[Money]

GFS is def. moving more towards a euro/ggem solution. LOW is still weaker and SE than those two but bringing snow up to IL/WI now.

 

Through HR 126, 4+ for WI and IL

[Tom]

GFS always playing catch up....and almost always a SE bias.  Better run tonight for sure.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

 

[Jaycee]

00z GGEM...

Is it me, or does the GGEM show the storm following this one^ well to the south of everyone on this forum??

 

 

EDIT: sorry, I tried to delete this post but it wont let me lol. got the answer though.

[Money]

UKMET is wetter for the thu system and has come farther NW on the system for the 1st-2nd. Has a 1006 low in Ohio now.

[Money]

euro still going with a cutter that hits Chicago/MKE

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_19.png

[Tom]

00z Euro Precip...

 

 

[DominicR]

00z Euro Precip...

 

Pretty solid still. Thinking wide area of advisory snows and band of low end warning snows in S WI/N IL/MI/N IN/OH if this materializes. GFS seems to be heading in right direction.

[Sciascia]

We're just more than 2 inches away from reaching 50 inches on the season. I think it'd be cool to get it in January. But if it must be February, that's alright too.

[Tom]

ORD has a decent chance to get about 9" (that's what we need to get #1) through Saturday if the Fri/Sat system can juice up a bit more, if not, we'll prob end up in 2nd for snowiest January.

[bud2380]

Saturday is feb1 so ord will need to get this snow by midnight Friday. Euro showing .4" for Friday night into sat morning for Iowa city. Gfs much weaker

[Tony]

Looks like the 1st wave on Thursday will lay down about an inch or two with a little more farther north into WI.

[Scott26]

Looks like the 1st wave on Thursday will lay down about an inch or two with a little more farther north into WI.

I think this wave we'll have a large effect on the second wave. A further north solution would likely push the second wave further north. Plus I just don't buy the strength of the high pressure on the GFS so hopefully we will have a better idea about the second wave today.

[Tony]

I think this wave we'll have a large effect on the second wave. A further north solution would likely push the second wave further north. Plus I just don't buy the strength of the high pressure on the GFS so hopefully we will have a better idea about the second wave today.

You are probably right Scott, the GFS is way too strong with that high pressure compared to the Euro/Gem. I'm guessing the GFS will probably start to come around the next run or two but it has been inching its way north.

[Money]

NAM at HR 84 (I know lol) but looks like it would follow the euro with a far NW track of the low, right?

[Money]

Some major changes on the 12z GFS compared to 0z/6z GFS.

[Money]

Should be a nice cutter. 

 

1004 low in TX/OK border with no blocking at all to the north like the past runs showed. 

[Scott26]

Should be a nice cutter. 

 

1004 low in TX/OK border with no blocking at all to the north like the past runs showed. 

Yup, less high pressure so it's coming in north and amped. Should be a pretty decent run for all of us.

 

 Edit: Nice hit Detroit

[Money]

Ends up being a pretty weak low (1008) but the track ends up from about STL to LAF.

 

3-5 for most areas in IA/IL/WI.

 

Step in the right direction.

[Tom]

This is what I expected of the GFS, always playing catch up.  Hopefully we see the GGEM/Euro showing a juicier 12z run.