January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[Scott26]

I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere.

[Money]

Yup. I expect a stronger low in future runs. Less blocking should mean more amped and farther north.

[Money]

I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere.

 

Thursday system came in with more qpf as well.

 

Could very well be a 2-3 inch snow on Thu and then 4-8 or so for the highest snows for this system.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Thursday system came in with more qpf as well.

 

Could very well be a 2-3 inch snow on Thu and then 4-8 or so for the highest snows for this system.

 

6" of snow between the two would be a successful haul for sure.

[Money]

GGEM at HR 96

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

[Money]

I hate B/W maps but it looks like a good hit for MKE and maybe N. IL

[Tony]

First wave on Thursday(appetizer) should be a lock with an inch or two.

[Money]

Does anyone have the GGEM snow maps by any chance?

[East Dubzz]

I'm not liking where this first wave is going. Looks like it may end up being even too far north for me to get in on the action!

[Tony]

We have precip issues with this run of the ggem. About 10hrs of moderate to heavy snow then to ice for a few hours. Looks like it comes up to the southern tip of LM.

[Geos]

I hate B/W maps but it looks like a good hit for MKE and maybe N. IL

 

WI good. Mixing issues down this way.

[East Dubzz]

I think the GGEM could have a realistic track for the wave on Thursday. Basically takes it right along the baroclinic zone in southern Iowa, which is pretty strong right now with a huge difference in snow amounts between central and southern Iowa.

[Money]

ukmet also farther nw. 1009 low or so in E. Indiana 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I think the GGEM could have a realistic track for the wave on Thursday. Basically takes it right along the baroclinic zone in southern Iowa, which is pretty strong right now with a huge difference in snow amounts between central and southern Iowa.

 

You must be talking about the second wave, right?  The Thursday storm for us would be the W-E weak low that right now is focused around N Iowa, S Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

[james1976]

im confused...so many systems. lol!

[Geos]

GGEM is moving very slow, but here it is through 96 hours.

 

[Scott26]

GGEM is moving very slow, but here it is through 96 hours.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012812/east/cmc_total_precip_east_17.png

Nice... That isn't all snow I'm guessing

[Money]

GGEM would be 6-8/7-9 for MKE between the two systems. Not bad. EURO out to hr 48 so far. A little north with the 1st system

[Geos]

Nice... That isn't all snow I'm guessing

 

You can kind of see the southern cut off for the first wave and then the continuation of the 2nd.

 

[Money]

HR 54

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_10.png

[Money]

HR 60

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_11.png

 

 

That's the 1st system.

[Money]

HR 72

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13.png

[Geos]

Not all that impressed with the first wave.

 

[Money]

euro is going north based on the 850 and 32 line which is a good bit farther north compared to 12z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png

 

12z

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

[Money]

12z HR 84

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png

 

0z 96

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png

[Money]

12z HR 90

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

 

0z 102

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_18.png

[Money]

HR 96

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png

[East Dubzz]

1-2" inch events from Thursday & Saturday on the Euro that run. Like I haven't seen enough of those this year.

[Money]

And thats the end of that.

 

Onto the end of the run and see if it shows the big one.

[Tom]

Weak sauce on the 12z Euro, prob a bad run.  All other models showing more precip and with a baroclinic zone setting up I would expect higher qpf totals.

[East Dubzz]

So let me get this straight... The first wave is just light precipitation from a cold front/upper level disturbance?

 

Then the second wave is actually a SLP tracking through that could potentially produce some 3-6" snows, if everything goes together right?

 

Sorry I've been trying to track this all via my phone lately, and that often gets me very confused! Lol.

[Tony]

Plenty of time to iron things out but for the most part it was a good suite of runs so far today except the Euro seems to be a bit wacked.

[DominicR]

So what total QPF for this on euro? GFS looks much better here.

[gosaints]

Sref mean for first event 3 inches here

[Tom]

SREF's mean for ORD .23qpf

[DominicR]

SREF's mean for ORD .23qpf

 

Just thursday event for both?

[gosaints]

NAM north amped no surprise though cant be thrown out. System is a racer

[Tom]

Dominick, that's through 84 hours..precip starts to spike at 84 Hour though...max is .72qpf

[East Dubzz]

Wow that first wave is just terrible on the NAM. At least give me something with the second wave!

[gosaints]

Terrible its the juiciest of any model run yet!?