Scott26 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yup. I expect a stronger low in future runs. Less blocking should mean more amped and farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wouldn't worry too much about QPF at this point. Just so we get a good track this should be a decent event for us. This is definitely not looking like a huge snowstorm by any means, but there will likely be a thin strip of warning snows somewhere. Thursday system came in with more qpf as well. Could very well be a 2-3 inch snow on Thu and then 4-8 or so for the highest snows for this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thursday system came in with more qpf as well. Could very well be a 2-3 inch snow on Thu and then 4-8 or so for the highest snows for this system. 6" of snow between the two would be a successful haul for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 GGEM at HR 96 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hate B/W maps but it looks like a good hit for MKE and maybe N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 First wave on Thursday(appetizer) should be a lock with an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Does anyone have the GGEM snow maps by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm not liking where this first wave is going. Looks like it may end up being even too far north for me to get in on the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 We have precip issues with this run of the ggem. About 10hrs of moderate to heavy snow then to ice for a few hours. Looks like it comes up to the southern tip of LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hate B/W maps but it looks like a good hit for MKE and maybe N. IL WI good. Mixing issues down this way. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the GGEM could have a realistic track for the wave on Thursday. Basically takes it right along the baroclinic zone in southern Iowa, which is pretty strong right now with a huge difference in snow amounts between central and southern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 ukmet also farther nw. 1009 low or so in E. Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the GGEM could have a realistic track for the wave on Thursday. Basically takes it right along the baroclinic zone in southern Iowa, which is pretty strong right now with a huge difference in snow amounts between central and southern Iowa. You must be talking about the second wave, right? The Thursday storm for us would be the W-E weak low that right now is focused around N Iowa, S Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 im confused...so many systems. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 GGEM is moving very slow, but here it is through 96 hours. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 GGEM is moving very slow, but here it is through 96 hours. http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012812/east/cmc_total_precip_east_17.pngNice... That isn't all snow I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 GGEM would be 6-8/7-9 for MKE between the two systems. Not bad. EURO out to hr 48 so far. A little north with the 1st system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice... That isn't all snow I'm guessing You can kind of see the southern cut off for the first wave and then the continuation of the 2nd. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 HR 54 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 HR 60 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_11.png That's the 1st system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 HR 72 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not all that impressed with the first wave. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro is going north based on the 850 and 32 line which is a good bit farther north compared to 12z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png 12z http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z HR 84 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png 0z 96 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z HR 90 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png 0z 102 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012800/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 HR 96 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 1-2" inch events from Thursday & Saturday on the Euro that run. Like I haven't seen enough of those this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 And thats the end of that. Onto the end of the run and see if it shows the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Weak sauce on the 12z Euro, prob a bad run. All other models showing more precip and with a baroclinic zone setting up I would expect higher qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 So let me get this straight... The first wave is just light precipitation from a cold front/upper level disturbance? Then the second wave is actually a SLP tracking through that could potentially produce some 3-6" snows, if everything goes together right? Sorry I've been trying to track this all via my phone lately, and that often gets me very confused! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Plenty of time to iron things out but for the most part it was a good suite of runs so far today except the Euro seems to be a bit wacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 So what total QPF for this on euro? GFS looks much better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sref mean for first event 3 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF's mean for ORD .23qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 SREF's mean for ORD .23qpf Just thursday event for both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM north amped no surprise though cant be thrown out. System is a racer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dominick, that's through 84 hours..precip starts to spike at 84 Hour though...max is .72qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow that first wave is just terrible on the NAM. At least give me something with the second wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Terrible its the juiciest of any model run yet!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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