January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[Tom]

N IN gets a lot of rain this run, Snow from Gary, IN on NW this run...

[Money]

UKMET at HR 96: 1006 L over Detroit. About 8 MB stronger than GFS.

[MarcusBeier]

SE MI looks good at this point, Detroit metro may get close to the rain/snow line but I think it will be a close call.  NW of Detroit looking good for 3-6".

 Thank you..the one after this looks nuts..so far out tho

[Money]

EURO 1st system (THU)

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_9.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

EURO 1st system (THU)

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_9.png

 

I smell this area being a screw zone in between the two systems, hopefully I'm wrong and the  second wave comes north as well.

[Money]

2nd wave is weak.

[East Dubzz]

Well the first wave was pretty disappointing, that's way north.

 

Hope the second wave gives me a little more hope.

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13.png

[East Dubzz]

Welp, second wave was even worse. Lol. If that's how it ends up, that'll just be sickening, unless something magical happens with next weeks systems and eases the pain! L.

[Money]

Actually, I have no idea what it's trying to do.

 

HR 78

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png

 

 

12z HR 90

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

[Money]

HR 84

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png

[East Dubzz]

Actually, I have no idea what it's trying to do.

 

HR 78

 

 

 

12z HR 90

 

It's throwing a high pressure over the area and killing the storm. DVN AFD mentioned that the GFS and NAM must have previously been doing this.

[Money]

HR 90

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

[Money]

The difference between 12z an 0z is just odd for the EURO. It used to be the king on everything and rarely wavered. 

[Money]

HR 96

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png

 

Total precip

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_17.png

[DominicR]

Much better in terms of QPF and strength but south of where we like it.

[East Dubzz]

The difference between 12z an 0z is just odd for the EURO. It used to be the king on everything and rarely wavered.

It really hasn't been having that great of a winter. It's been struggling pretty bad with the clippers, which is about all we've had this year. Maybe it'll have a better handle now that we're headed in a little different pattern, but it definitely has had its fair share of struggles so far this year.

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_18.png

 

All you gotta do is look at those two maps and you'll see how consistent they are from it's last run.

[Tom]

Looks like the GGEM has had the best consistency handling the 2nd system so far.  All models are slowing the arrival of the system for later on Saturday it looks like.

[DominicR]

EURO/GFS/NAM coming into agreement with a solid band of 6-10 inches in C IL/IN/OH. Looks like heaviest could miss Chicago to the south but plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

[Money]

Nice little NW trend on the 12z nam from 6z for this system. Brings the heaviest snow through Chicago.

[Money]

Brings 4-6 to Chicago. 2-3 to Milwaukee and 1-2 for here.

[DominicR]

Nice little NW trend on the 12z nam from 6z for this system. Brings the heaviest snow through Chicago.

 

Yeah fills in the hole to. Solid 5-8 inches N IL/N IN/S MI.

[DominicR]

Yeah 4-6 inches. 1-2 inches from Thursday system if we even get any from that.

[Money]

Yeah 4-6 inches. 1-2 inches from Thursday system if we even get any from that.

 

Yeah, should be interesting to see if this is a trend or not.

[Geos]

Yeah fills in the hole to. Solid 5-8 inches N IL/N IN/S MI.

 

Nice! That should guarantee that I see Day 65 of snow cover.

 

[Money]

I have no clue what the models are doing right now. It seems every run is completely different. 

[Money]

Looks like GFS splits it into 2 parts or something.

 

6+ for Chicago.

[gosaints]

I have no clue what the models are doing right now. It seems every run is completely different. 

Its laughable

[Geos]

GFS snowfall map at 10:1 > 96 hours.

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

 

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_12.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_13.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_14.png

[Money]

ECMWF is a nice hit for ORD. Farther NW

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png

[Money]

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_15.png

[Tom]

12z Euro...looking good

 

[Geos]

I'll take that for a weekend system! Should be a 6" storm for northern IL.

[gosaints]

emsembles all over the place for both the weekend system and the following system

[Tom]

By Friday 00z runs we should be getting better sampling and more consistency on the models.  Today's operational models have shown some consistency on track.

[Tom]

ORD SREF's...

 

[Tom]

18z NAM a tad more bullish for N IL for Thursday's system...showing 2-3"