January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[bud2380]

That map is total snow though. Friday night into Saturday is more like 4-7"

[Tony]

Indeed it has Tony and coming in very juicy...6-11" totals for N IL...coming in line with what Skilling's map showed.

Seems like the past 3 runs or so of the models are starting to catch up to the ggem qpf maps from a couple days ago. Maybe the ggem is onto something here.

[bud2380]

Gfs has about .4" for Iowa city. Right around .5" for ord not bad

[Tony]

That map is total snow though. Friday night into Saturday is more like 4-7"

I think we will be lucky to see an inch from the first wave, at least for NE IL

[Tom]

Looks like the snow ratios will be very high with this system once again.  Showing solid .50-.60qpf.

 

[Tom]

Your right Tony, models are coming in juicier for tonights 00z runs and following suit on what the GGEM was showing a couple days ago.  I recall I posted a map showing 1.2"qpf or so (prob not happening).  Would be nuts if that actually happens.  We are still 60 hours out so there will still be adjustments.

[DominicR]

Tommorow I think we have shot of 1-2 inches. Using NAM sim-reflectivity could be quite heavy around dinner. Still solid 6-10 inches by time it's done with both waves. I know tom wave very small but it could add.

[bud2380]

Using instantweathermaps it shows 6-7" for Chicago on Saturday. Could warrant a winter storm watch. Hopefully gem stays the course. I think I could get a winter wx advisory out of this for possibly 3-5"

[Tony]

GGEM totals were kind of high but I could probably see the models coming in even a little wetter than what they are currently showing.

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_total_precip_east_13.png

[East Dubzz]

Dangit Money, I was in the process of posting that!

[Money]

sorry lol

 

some images

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_10.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_11.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_12.png

[Geos]

GGEM rides the freezing line all the way to I-80/90 on this run. Going to be a wet snowfall, but that's kind of what I want.

 

[Tom]

GGEM has been the warmest of all the model runs.  We'll see what the Euro shows tonight. 

[Geos]

GGEM has been the warmest of all the model runs.  We'll see what the Euro shows tonight. 

 

So do you think there is a chance winter storm watches go out by tomorrow night?

[Tom]

I like our chances for LOT to pull the trigger tomorrow to issue WSW during AFD pckg after 12z runs.

[Money]

Euro

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_13.png

[DominicR]

Intial slug of WAA precip may generate 2-4 inches in C IL/N IN Friday evening...

 

[DominicR]

To bad it scoots east instead of wrapping around but still solid run of NAM with 6-10 inch band in far N MO/N-C IL/N IN/S MI. Heaviest would be south of Chicago but still 6-8 inches in with a little less towards border.

[Money]

Last 2 storms all have a solid NW trend in them. Don't see the next one being any dif. (Feb 4th-5th)

[East Dubzz]

Would have some decent snow here right now based off radar returns, but it's all virga.

[DominicR]

12z NAM is solid hit still 6-8 inches in central and northern IL but looks like mainly coming from intial band tommorow as main wave scoots off to the east rapidly.

[DominicR]

Looks weaker and more progressive with main wave but intial band makes up for that.

[gosaints]

Weak sauce

[DominicR]

Weak sauce

 

Yeah but snow amounts still add up almost similar to previous run but the intial WAA advection tommorow makes up for that with 12z NAM.

[Geos]

Liking the EURO above...

 

NAM ok.

 

[Money]

Chicago area is king this winter. Nice screw hole near me lol

[gosaints]

Yeah but snow amounts still add up almost similar to previous run but the intial WAA advection tommorow makes up for that with 12z NAM.

Yep WAA looks nice just impossible to know where that will set up..

[DominicR]

Looks pretty impressive out in IA right now.

[gosaints]

Looks pretty impressive out in IA right now.

Huge virga storm in iowa. Check out last hour in Ames. Overcast!!!

[East Dubzz]

Huge virga storm in iowa. Check out last hour in Ames. Overcast!!!

Yeah pretty lame.

[gosaints]

Rip city outside right now

[Sciascia]

GFS 12z painting 6-8" for Chicago thru 57hr. The 8-9" inch marker ain't too far from the city, though.

 

EDIT: 6-10" swath across NC IL & N IL. 6-8 inches falls in 24 hours, which would fit WSW criteria.

[Tom]

12z GFS bumped up qpf totals...winds howl NE off the Lake...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Best virga storm of my life!

[Tom]

If GGEM/EURO show similar qpf as the GFS, I'm sure LOT will issue WSW for afternoon pckg...

[Tom]

12z GFS Snowfall...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Coming down now. Won't be more than an inch tho, maybe half an inch if we get lucky. Bleh

[East Dubzz]

Had a nice burst move through. But it's almost already over.

[Tom]

12z GGEM loading up the moisture...around .80qpf for ORD.  GGEM also corrected colder this run.