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January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm


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The SREF Plume means for JOT have been declining for the last few runs. For Joliet the mean accumulation is now down to 5.5" from a high of 8". The QPF is about the same so that implies the ratios are getting worse.... Maybe a result of the projections shifting northward

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The SREF Plume means for JOT have been declining for the last few runs. For Joliet the mean accumulation is now down to 5.5" from a high of 8". The QPF is about the same so that implies the ratios are getting worse.... Maybe a result of the projections shifting northward

 

Agree. NAM becoming a bit warmer. A bit concerned about ratios and any furthur north trend a mix even up this way ORD.

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Somewhere on the lines of a 20-30 mile north shift seems quite possible. Almost all of our storms this winter have had n/nw shifts, even within 24 hours. I can't remember any storms that have shifted south within the final days this winter. I don't think ratios will be in our favor, especially with a N shift. But I do think mixing will be a minor problem a peru to Joliet line. Its been nice to see this storm shape up after some model mayhem a couple days ago. 

 

Attached is Skiiling's post on his fb page:

1621992_10152140357571760_983121892_n.jpg

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Ord probably under 10:1 ratios this run

 

Probably not. 

 

Widespread 8" totals.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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4km NAM a little south.

 

 

MKX is going to need a watch for some counties.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z GFS...a little south compared to the 00z NAM...

 

Just a little something to chew on; LOT's update indicated the models making a north shift, but had the low possibly moving through Gary.  Funny to note that last winter, we had the December 2012 storm that tracked through Chicago leave us with mostly rain.  Now we have a weak low that may track through Gary, normally a solid track, but the highest totals will be just south.  Kind of unlucky if this pans out.

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I have 5-9" for my area, St. Charles with LOT's point click. I think the Southward shift will be marginal, but it makes a difference. I still think heaviest band of snow will set up between I-80 and I-88, I am just hoping it's juicy enough and the ratios stay about the same. We shall see! 

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I just realized that this storm is coming in exactly 31 days to the tee from our NYE storm that dumped roughly 8-10" of snow and 3 days later another 13" (at ORD, 17" IMBY).  It's kind of ironic that this could happen again in an almost exact 30 day cycle.

 

Anyhow, if we do in fact get 20" or more of snow from Feb 1-8, I don't recall experiencing a winter to have 2 separate weeks producing 20"+ of snow and back to back 10" snowstorms which may happen 2x this winter.  Fascinating if that happens.

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