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January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm


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The euro had two real nice runs yesterday for eastern Iowa with about 0.37" of precip falling in CR, but the 12z took a big chunk of that back, knocking 1-2 inches off of the totals.  The model average is around 0.25-0.30".  That would be the best precip of the month, but it's still just another dimer.  We are having trouble getting out of the nickel & dimer rut.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The euro had two real nice runs yesterday for eastern Iowa with about 0.37" of precip falling in CR, but the 12z took a big chunk of that back, knocking 1-2 inches off of the totals.  The model average is around 0.25-0.30".  That would be the best precip of the month, but it's still just another dimer.  We are having trouble getting out of the nickel & dimer rut.

 

Yeah, I'm getting tired of this winter pattern, just suppressed enough to make it cold and dry more often than not.

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My forecast is calling for 8-12 inches! sweet!!! :huh:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As East Dubzz said, the overrunning event over IA/IL has produced 3-5" totals so far.  I don't think that high of totals were expected.  TWC has just alluded to this storm becoming an over achiever.  They are predicting 5-8" for Chicago.

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What is your guys thought for some freezing rain in northwest Indiana? Local papers saying freezing rain for tomorrow

 

It's looking a bit cooler. Where you at by? I think there be more snow than anything. Might be some ice or plain rain as SLP moves up this way but not looking like anything significant.

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As East Dubzz said, the overrunning event over IA/IL has produced 3-5" totals so far.  I don't think that high of totals were expected.  TWC has just alluded to this storm becoming an over achiever.  They are predicting 5-8" for Chicago.

There can also be some convection associated with this sytem which could enhance rates. I could see certain areas picking up 10" and 12" lolipop not out of the question.

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GRR gonna go to advisory as well 5-7 inches.

 

GRR:

THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT THIS
TIME. FIRST... THERE IS NOT A REALLY WELL DEVELOPED UPPER SYSTEM AND
IT IS MORE AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE AT H5. SECOND... THE H8 LOW
TRACKS PRETTY FAR NORTH FROM MKG TO THE SAGINAW BAY... AND THE SFC
LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP EITHER. MUCH OF THIS EVENT IS STRICTLY
MID LEVEL FGEN RELATED AND IT IS VERY HARD TO NAIL DOWN IF/WHERE THE
HEAVIER BANDS MAY SET UP AND HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THINGS A BIT RELATED TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE AND AM HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO ITS EXCESSIVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.

 

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Corrected one.

 

 

 

That would boost me up in my personal snowfall rankings to 8th place.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LOT:
 

 

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SOME PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRONG BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN PROXIMITY TO A DECENT LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV.
SIMILARLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DGZ...WITH EVEN A LITTLE CAPE NOTED FOR
PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE 650 MB. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG FGEN...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW RATES AROUND
AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS SATURDAY MORNING AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB AROUND 0 TO
-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...SUGGESTS THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GOOD
AGGREGATION OF SNOW FLAKES...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW.

OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A GOOD 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL FALL
WITHIN HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SLIGHTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SNOW SHOULD ABATE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS
SOUTH APPEAR THAT THEY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.

 

 

Get ready for some lightning!

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