January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[DominicR]

Parts of Quads and C IL under warnings now.

[East Dubzz]

Here is a graph over here from a local met:

[DominicR]

18z GFS might be a tad weaker but still overall 6-8 inches at least.

[gosaints]

Don't worry, once gosaints sees this, I'm sure he'll claim ratios are down to 4:1 lol

Lol what?

I do believe I said 10:1.

[Madtown]

MKX just left out tomorrow out of their discussion?

[Sciascia]

Mike Caplan now riding 5-6" total.

[MKEstorm]

MKX just left out tomorrow out of their discussion?

 

LOL! I noticed that! They seem to be more concerned about next week's storm.

[Scott26]

Mike Caplan now riding 5-6" total.

He is the one to jump to conclusions. The global models seemed to dry up a bit today, but 5-6 is still too conservative. I'm going to ride the 6-10 inches that LOT is going with and I think ORD will hit 8 inches. SREF Mean actually went up to 7 inches will most of the plumes between 8-9 for ORD.

[Sciascia]

He is the one to jump to conclusions. The global models seemed to dry up a bit today, but 5-6 is still too conservative. I'm going to ride the 6-10 inches that LOT is going with and I think ORD will hit 8 inches. SREF Mean actually went up to 7 inches will most of the plumes between 8-9 for ORD.

He was referencing less moisture, faster movement, and the mixing line as reasons for lowering snow expectations.

[Trinomial]

NBC just showed two models. One giving the whole Chicagoland area 6-7, and one giving us 3 - 3.5 (southern track). Yet his closure at the end was showing 5 - 9+. How are we still so far off on totals?!

[DominicR]

Don't trip on lower totals. We are getting pretty close to event now.

 

LOT:

 

[Sciascia]

Hunch last night has been telling me to ride the high side of totals. I'll predict 8.1" to fall at ORD. If I'm gonna bust, I'll bust sky high.

[Troop]

Been prowling on the site for years and years but never posted.   Makes you wonder how many are following this blog from the shadows.   What a winter its been though - and it keeps getting better.  

 

One favor to ask - so many of us post about how a storm will hit them, miss them to the north, be stronger to the east, etc. but they don't have their location listed in their profile.  It would help a lot for the frequent bloggers to have their locations in their profile so we know where they're at and can better figure out how the weather is behaving around them.   Just a friendly suggestion from a long time fellow weatherhound.  

[DominicR]

Been prowling on the site for years and years but never posted.   Makes you wonder how many are following this blog from the shadows.   What a winter its been though - and it keeps getting better.  

 

One favor to ask - so many of us post about how a storm will hit them, miss them to the north, be stronger to the east, etc. but they don't have their location listed in their profile.  It would help a lot for the frequent bloggers to have their locations in their profile so we know where they're at and can better figure out how the weather is behaving around them.   Just a friendly suggestion from a long time fellow weatherhound.  

 

Hey welcome and thanks for being with us!

 

Yes we like everyone who has not done so to add there locations for reason above. It will make it much easier to know the location where the discussion/observation is coming from.

[gosaints]

Rgem at 18z jackpots detroit

[MarcusBeier]

DTX is saying High-End Advisory with good chance of upgrade but they cant seem to get into agreement on this bullsh*t freezing rain/rain situation. Plus all the snow today compacted down as we reached 34 degrees. I hate loses snow right before you get new snow, does nothing for the snowpack. I need the EXPERTS here to tell me..im in SW Oakland county in SEMI. Whats your opinions on me staying all snow and how much?

[ChiTownBlizzard11]

My grid has 4-10"... quite the spread.

[Sciascia]

NAM coming in drier.

[Scott26]

NAM coming in drier.

And south. Not liking the trend...

 

Edit: not really drier, but definitely south with the heaviest snows.

[Sciascia]

And south. Not liking the trend...

 

Edit: not really drier, but definitely south with the heaviest snows.

Yep. May lose our WSW.

[DominicR]

Maybe NW counties but Chicago still looks fine.

[Scott26]

SREF mean dropped to 6 inches for ORD. Still a decent spread between 6-7.

[Sciascia]

Would love to see 6 from this. If for no other reason, add up some more numbers for the record chase of 2013-14.

[DominicR]

Met from americanwx:

 

The latest guidance is not necessarily the best guidance. The 00z runs before the March 5th event last year backed off fairly significantly on qpf, only to be completely wrong. QPF is what the models do worst, so I highly doubt there's gonna be any downgrades based off a few runs of the NAM. The forcing parameters are what's important, not specific qpf totals.

 

[bud2380]

Nws dvn just came out with a new afd and dropped snow totals an inch or so based off latest nam

[Scott26]

Met from americanwx:

Mass freak out on the Americanwx forums. I'm glad we're not like that lol. We'll see what LOT does. I say they trim amounts, but keep the Warning pretty much everywhere. Canceling warning for some counties would be pretty extreme.

[Tom]

I believe N IL will be just fine.  Just do a comparison (as I did) to how far north the precip shield is compared to where the model believed snow would be falling right now over KS/NE.  It actually had no snow whatsoever at this time on the model in NE.  It goes to show you that a model is all but a virtual reality of what it believes will happen and in order to forecast we need some human touch to it.

[DominicR]

000

FXUS63 KLOT 010221

AFDLOT

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

821 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2014

 

.DISCUSSION...

800 PM CST

 

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. RAISED POPS AND SNOW

AMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER

BANDING OCCURRING. NOTE HOWEVER...STILL THINKING STORM TOTAL SNOW

AMOUNTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WERE NOT CHANGED AND STILL REMAIN

IN THE 2 TO 6 RANGE. THE BANDING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

 

LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE IL/WI STATE LINE THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW

IS ADVANCING A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. NOW EXPECTING SNOW TO

REACH THE STATE LINE OVERNIGHT.

 

EVERYTHING ELSE REMAINS ON TRACK INCLUDING THE ONGOING HEADLINES.

NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED FEATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND/OR HINTED

AT LESS QPF...BUT AM HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

THEREFORE LEFT WELL ENOUGH ALONE.

 

[Tom]

HRRR thru 9:00am and still snowing...Skilling's rpm model showed it arriving later and snowing later...I think it showed it snowing pretty good through 3:00pm.

 

 

[Sciascia]

Mike Caplan touting the new NAM numbers & promoting lower snow totals. I always thought he was more of a guy that didn't live run-to-run...perhaps I was wrong.

[The Snowman]

Mike Caplan touting the new NAM numbers & promoting lower snow totals. I always thought he was more of a guy that didn't live run-to-run...perhaps I was wrong.

Caplan, Taft & friends are uber-conservative. Taft more so than Caplan, but the whole ABC 7 team prefers lower totals.

[cirrus1]

Trend is not good

[Geos]

Time to stop watching the models and watching the radar. Not worried about any adjustments in the models at this time. '

 

Did want to post this though.

 

[FiNsTa]

Trend is not good

Don't buy into what the models are showing.

[FiNsTa]

Time to stop watching the models and watching the radar. Not worried about any adjustments in the models at this time. 

+1 thank you.

[Tom]

Exactly, its a nowcast event now...lets see this puppy develop...

[Tom]

Got some very light snow falling right now...

[cirrus1]

Thanks Tom!

[Geos]

Skilling just said on air - earlier model runs have been/can be better than the ones right before an event. Take the newest model runs with a grain of salt.

 

 

[DominicR]

GFS still pretty good. Just saying if they wanna hype NAM.