Tom Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 The models are now suggesting what could potentially turn into quite a meteorological feat into early next week. An unusually strong trough will track out of the N Rockies today and develop across the central Plains states as a potent closed ULL will form near KS/MO late on Friday. By Sat, this system rapidly develops into a strong SLP across MO and cuts up NNE into the GL's region while plugging into deep GOM moisture sparking a major severe wx outbreak down south. Farther north, this system wraps up into a dynamic little beast that will produce heavy rainfall and strong winds. How low will the Baro go??? Now, where things get a bit interesting, another system will track through B.C. and into the Upper MW and ultimately will interact with the GL's system producing a Fujiwara Effect. The result will be a monster Cut-Off Low across the N GL's region. Will it snow? How much? Let's discuss... 00z Euro... @FAR_Weather 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 The Devils Lake basin needs the moisture, they've been missed by this current system. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 12z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 @OKwx2k4, looks like you may need to hunker down later tonight my friend! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, Tom said: @OKwx2k4, looks like you may need to hunker down later tonight my friend! Yup he is now included in the enhanced risk. Moderate risk area also expanded to the NW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 The 3kNAM is solidly east of the HRRR Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 12z Euro 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 12z Euro dumping a lot of late season snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 I don't know how much rain we'll get Saturday. The 18z HRRR has widespread 1-2+" across eastern Iowa. The 18z NAM & 3kNAM have shifted well east and have removed nearly all rain from my area. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 I just took a look at the models for the first time today and noticed the huge disparity on the 18z NAMs as Hawkeye mentioned. So again, makes the forecast tough. NWS has 100% chance of rain and 1/2 to 3/4" in the grids. Either way it looks to be a cool and dreary day. Good day to make some soup and play some board games with kids for me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: @OKwx2k4, looks like you may need to hunker down later tonight my friend! Yup. Gonna get bumpy down here tonight. This could be a super severe season later on in this part of the pattern. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 9, 2021 Report Share Posted April 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: I don't know how much rain we'll get Saturday. The 18z HRRR has widespread 1-2+" across eastern Iowa. The 18z NAM & 3kNAM have shifted well east and have removed nearly all rain from my area. Yeah the NAM’s were the about furthest west, now those are mostly missing me. I’m hoping for 1” since next week appears mostly dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 00z HRRR 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 The 18z NAM did not stick at all. The 00z is well back to the nw. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 As twilight begins to emerge above the mountain ranges to my east, the MW is experiencing quiet the compact "beast"... I'm digging the pattern over here next week as a strong trough becomes cut-off from the main flow as the signature part of the LRC shows itself once again. This was the part of the pattern that sent waves of energy out of the SW for numerous days. Temps are to cool into the low/mid 80's...finally some relief from the 90's around here..more importantly, a lot of moisture/snow for the mountains where exceptional drought conditions continue. SLP deepening into the 990's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Looks like a lot of hail/wind reports yesterday but no tornado's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Cool windy rainy morning here. So far 1.07in of rain has fallen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 12z HRRR... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 3k NAM is pretty similar. Yesterday's HRRR runs were too aggressive for Cedar Rapids. Models have met in the middle. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 I’m up to 0.27” of rainfall now on my Vantage Pro station. Maximum rainfall rate was 0.40” per hour during the brighter radar returns. Moderate rain continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Iowa City Airport has .22”. My digital gauge says .23”. Both my thermometers and the Airport say 46°. Makes me feel pretty confident my equipment is working properly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Already 0.80" in Davenport, over an inch in Moline. The rain has been fighting dry air up here so far. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Only .32” here. Another band of heavier rains looks to try to move in shortly. Well see if it makes it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 It’s interesting watching the rain fighting the dryer air or bumping up against an invisible wall on the radar. I’m now up to .60” and it’s 46° here also. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 Up to .58” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 10, 2021 Report Share Posted April 10, 2021 I’m finally up to around 1” while they already had over 2” in some places along the Mississippi River. Now the moderate band is streaming in from an easterly direction. The clouds are currently kind of connective looking though the steady rain doesn’t seem that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 11, 2021 Report Share Posted April 11, 2021 I finished with 0.96”. The Iowa city airport reported over 1.5”. CR airport had about 0.7”. Over 2.5” in the quad cities 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2021 00z Euro still aggressive with the snows up north.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 11, 2021 Report Share Posted April 11, 2021 Picked up 1.63 inches of rain bringing my monthly total to 2.47in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 11, 2021 Report Share Posted April 11, 2021 ^^ Nearly the same amount here with a storm total of 1.62”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 11, 2021 Report Share Posted April 11, 2021 0.73" in my gauge. There was a significant drop-off between Iowa City and Cedar Rapids. There are some totals well over 3" along and just east of the river. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 13, 2021 Report Share Posted April 13, 2021 Actual accumulations are gonna be way less than what models are advertising. The fact that this is a daytime event in April with temps at freezing is a recipe for mediocrity. This will at least bring much needed heavy moisture to the Devils Lake basin which was missed by the last couple of rain events and has had super high fire danger up to this point. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted April 14, 2021 Report Share Posted April 14, 2021 I had 1.30 inches on Saturday. And almost 2 inches total wed through sat. Its actually needed this wind can rapidly dry and crust the surface. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 14, 2021 Report Share Posted April 14, 2021 Decent flakage outside right now. Amazing how despite how dreadful amount-wise this snow season was, it still began in early October and will likely end in mid-April. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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