Jump to content
The Weather Forums

4/9 - 4/14 GL's Cutter


Recommended Posts

The models are now suggesting what could potentially turn into quite a meteorological feat into early next week.  An unusually strong trough will track out of the N Rockies today and develop across the central Plains states as a potent closed ULL will form near KS/MO late on Friday.  By Sat, this system rapidly develops into a strong SLP across MO and cuts up NNE into the GL's region while plugging into deep GOM moisture sparking a major severe wx outbreak down south.  Farther north, this system wraps up into a dynamic little beast that will produce heavy rainfall and strong winds.  How low will the Baro go???

Now, where things get a bit interesting, another system will track through B.C. and into the Upper MW and ultimately will interact with the GL's system producing a Fujiwara Effect.   The result will be a monster Cut-Off Low across the N GL's region.  Will it snow?  How much?

 

Let's discuss...

 

00z Euro...

@FAR_Weather

1.png

 

2.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom changed the title to 4/9 - 4/14 GL's Cutter
  • Tom pinned this topic

The Devils Lake basin needs the moisture, they've been missed by this current system.

  • Like 2

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Rain 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 3kNAM is solidly east of the HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
  • Rain 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know how much rain we'll get Saturday.  The 18z HRRR has widespread 1-2+" across eastern Iowa.  The 18z NAM & 3kNAM have shifted well east and have removed nearly all rain from my area.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just took a look at the models for the first time today and noticed the huge disparity on the 18z NAMs as Hawkeye mentioned.  So again, makes the forecast tough.  NWS has 100% chance of rain and 1/2 to 3/4" in the grids.  Either way it looks to be a cool and dreary day.  Good day to make some soup and play some board games with kids for me. 

  • Like 3

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I don't know how much rain we'll get Saturday.  The 18z HRRR has widespread 1-2+" across eastern Iowa.  The 18z NAM & 3kNAM have shifted well east and have removed nearly all rain from my area.

Yeah the NAM’s were the about furthest west, now those are mostly missing me. I’m hoping for 1” since next week appears mostly dry.
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z NAM did not stick at all.  The 00z is well back to the nw.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As twilight begins to emerge above the mountain ranges to my east, the MW is experiencing quiet the compact "beast"...

I'm digging the pattern over here next week as a strong trough becomes cut-off from the main flow as the signature part of the LRC shows itself once again.  This was the part of the pattern that sent waves of energy out of the SW for numerous days.  Temps are to cool into the low/mid 80's...finally some relief from the 90's around here..more importantly, a lot of moisture/snow for the mountains where exceptional drought conditions continue.

SLP deepening into the 990's...

2.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3k NAM is pretty similar.  Yesterday's HRRR runs were too aggressive for Cedar Rapids.  Models have met in the middle.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already 0.80" in Davenport, over an inch in Moline.

The rain has been fighting dry air up here so far.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m finally up to around 1” while they already had over 2” in some places along the Mississippi River. Now the moderate band is streaming in from an easterly direction.
The clouds are currently kind of connective looking though the steady rain doesn’t seem that way.

 

63867406-CB54-40F1-AB11-87BD09B3B56F.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

0.73" in my gauge.  There was a significant drop-off between Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  There are some totals well over 3" along and just east of the river.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actual accumulations are gonna be way less than what models are advertising. The fact that this is a daytime event in April with temps at freezing is a recipe for mediocrity.

This will at least bring much needed heavy moisture to the Devils Lake basin which was missed by the last couple of rain events and has had super high fire danger up to this point.

  • Like 4

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Decent flakage outside right now.

 

Amazing how despite how dreadful amount-wise this snow season was, it still began in early October and will likely end in mid-April.

  • Like 2

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...