1/25 Great Lakes Clipper

[Tom]

12z GFS going even farther south and a bit less snow...the result from a deepening trough in the East is causing the system to dig farther west and south.  Models should be getting a good handle on this system by tomorrow morning's runs.

[BigDizBliz420]

i heard full sampling at 12z today. Looks good for 1-3" Chicago

[gosaints]

Thats alot drier

[BigDizBliz420]

Thats alot drier

 

 

system is getting weaker, maybe models are too wet?

[Tom]

12z GFS also showing temps drop into the mid/upper 20's for Chicago when the best forcing comes through during the day.

[Tom]

system is getting weaker, maybe models are too wet?

They have gotten weaker since yesterday when the GFS was showing 6"+ totals in MI.  Let's see how they perform over the next 24 hours.

[Maxim]

It's amazing how much this clipper has shifted south/west the past couple of days.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS has taken quite a leap southwest.  Unfortunately, the surface air will be marginal for accumulating snow in Iowa.  The Euro continues to have us in the mid 30s during the best precip.  A few degrees colder and this would be a potential 3-5" snowfall.

[Grizzcoat]

It's amazing how much this clipper has shifted south/west the past couple of days.

Will take all wecan get here. Will be interesting how afternoon disco's go here in C.iA. Still all rain here and surrounding areas in the grids..

[Tom]

It's amazing how much this clipper has shifted south/west the past couple of days.

So much for your "Dab" in your back yard...Clippers have trended south over time, esp this year and last year overall.  This one especially has shift hundreds of miles from GRB a couple days ago, to now possibly DVN getting some accumulation.

[BigDizBliz420]

looks like chicago could get nothing if this trend continues which nws says it will

[gosaints]

Usually we are not worried about surface temps with a clipper in janurary.  

[Hawkeye]

12z UK has shifted sw some as well, especially for those of us in Iowa.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_024-072_0000.gif

[james1976]

Wow, i might actually get some snow this weekend?

[Hawkeye]

Well, the 12z Euro did not move sw at all.  It's actually drier for Iowa and has the snow northeast of us.

[Tom]

12z Euro...it also drops temps during the day on Sunday into the mid 20's for N IL when the snow is falling and the winds turn in off the lake.  The set up for lake enhancement is look more promising and could be a longer duration event (18 hours or so with winds off the lake)

[GDR]

[Madtown]

Lol give me all 2"....pathetic 2 years for snow.

[Tom]

Interesting run on the 18z NAM...increases snowfall as it dives SE....same as the Euro has been trending in previous runs.

[Scott26]

Interesting run on the 18z NAM...increases snowfall as it dives SE....same as the Euro has been trending in previous runs.

It taps into some Pacific moisture as it dives south. The NAM is finally showing the nice banding I was talking about yesterday. Lake enhancement is the wild card in all of this definitely.

[Tony]

It taps into some Pacific moisture as it dives south. The NAM is finally showing the nice banding I was talking about yesterday. Lake enhancement is the wild card in all of this definitely.

LE definitely still has my attention. With warm lake waters and crashing 850's and the winds off the lake for a decent period of time, this could be a nice hit for someone.

[Tom]

LE definitely still has my attention. With warm lake waters and crashing 850's and the winds off the lake for a decent period of time, this could be a nice hit for someone.

Yup, delta T's don't look too bad either.  These are the type of Clippers our area in NE IL/SE WI wish for.  Back on Halloween I was hoping we would see this type of pattern cycle back through....and here it is.  Hope the track stays put.

[Troop]

Snow is snow, at this point I'll take what I can get.   The only thing more depressing than the lack of snow so far this winter is Madtown's constant pitty parties.  Lighten up or shut up. 

[BigDizBliz420]

NAM shows lots of snow for Chicago. Time to get excited! + LE = WOW 

[Tony]

NAM shows lots of snow for Chicago. Time to get excited! + LE = WOW 

It is the NAM but still fun to look at. The 4km NAM was even more robust then the operational so take it for what its worth at this juncture.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015012318/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png

[Madtown]

Welcome to the boards troop...

[Madtown]

Not at all pity...just find it hilarious that this is what our storm tracking has come to. As far as I'm concerned this winter has been great considering I walk dogs for a living. Still love snow but at some point the pattern is what it is. For 2 years we have been clippered to death praying for a phase only to watch more potential go out the window.

[Tom]

After seeing the local mets RPM models, you can see them picking up on lake enhancement.  I'm expecting tomorrow the High Rez models to show more of this as we get closer to the event.  Very nice set up with strong winds off the lake (gusts up to 30-35mph).  Might have some lolipop 6"+ totals lakeside.

[Yerf]

Really like the set up for Sunday. I have no problems with clippers.

[Maxim]

First call for MBY: DAB

Boosting my call. Going with 1.5" for now.

[Tony]

Looking foward yo 0z runs to see what drastic changes are in store for us. Even 24hrs from the event you can't be sure what is going to happen

[Geos]

Just now looking at that the models today. Trends are looking good for something more than 3" finally!

ABC weather news crew is going with 2-5" I saw.

[Tom]

00z NAM...seems like the track is staying put...

[Tom]

00z NAM...

[Tom]

Looking at the 00z NAM 4km radar, you can clearly see the lake effect bands forming out ahead of the "system snows" near MKE..

[Tom]

00z 4km NAM took a jog a bit farther south...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015012400/nam4km_asnow_us_17.png

[Tom]

Skilling's in-house model just showed 5.3" at ORD...pretty much 5-6" totals for Cook/Lake/Kenosha.  Lake enhancement pretty evident.

 

General 3-5" totals for N IL....

[Tom]

00z GFS a little more generous with the spread of snowfall...

[Scott26]

I still like my 1-3 inches call for over here, but I will go higher if greater lake enhancement seems evident.