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1/25 Great Lakes Clipper


Tom

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Skilling just mentioned their newest in-house model run is even more generous with snowfall, esp lakeside counties.  I think this could be a decent event IMBY.  Looking like it could be the biggest snowfall of the season (which is 3" at ORD).  Could double that with this Clipper.

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Hopefully there's no more south trend on this system...

This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model.

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This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model.

The RPM model is picking up on the lake enhancement and I find that it does very well with the track/intensity within the 24-48 period.

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The RPM model is picking up on the lake enhancement and I find that it does very well with the track/intensity within the 24-48 period.

 

I'll take seasonal trends over initially bullish hi-resolution models, decent chance it comes back to earth wrt totals, I'm saying around 2" here, and that might be too bullish.

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I'll take seasonal trends over initially bullish hi-resolution models, decent chance it comes back to earth wrt totals, I'm saying around 2" here, and that might be too bullish.

I've been conservative with making calls systems this season, but this one is packing a little more ammo for NE IL.  My call is 4-6" for ORD.

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This is the reason why I'm not going with anything more than 1-3 inches at this time. Best forcing and banding looks to be to the south of here. South side of Chicago through Northern Indiana possibly into Ohio looks to be in the best place right now for the higher totals. It's funny that yesterday I was thinking Wisconsin and Michigan were going to be the winners with this one. The Euro, the southern outlier, was even too far north will the heaviest band yesterday. We will see if lake enhancement over here can up our totals similar to Skilling's RPM model.

 

I will say - at least this time there isn't a frigid Arctic high wanting to push the system further south. Unlike a few weeks ago.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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DVN going with around 2" for me. Pretty much nothing along I-80 but did mention potential for heavy snow ina given spot if someone gets lucky.

 

Last 2 clippers were overperformers for me so curious to see this come through...

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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For lake enhancement it looks alright... Although I'd like to see a steady decrease in temperature in the column as opposed to it leveling off then decreasing. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like a couple of inches over here at best. Has anybody been tracking the potential major blizzard for the east coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame? Our system phases with an Atlantic low to create a monster storm. 12Z Euro was probably one of the most impressive runs I have ever seen for a winter storm. It gives NYC 2.2 inches of precipitation with temperatures in the 20's. That would translate to over 2 feet of snow! At least this clipper will be useful for something...

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Looks like a couple of inches over here at best. Has anybody been tracking the potential major blizzard for the east coast in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame? Our system phases with an Atlantic low to create a monster storm. 12Z Euro was probably one of the most impressive runs I have ever seen for a winter storm. It gives NYC 2.2 inches of precipitation with temperatures in the 20's. That would translate to over 2 feet of snow! At least this clipper will be useful for something...

I am from NYC and I have been through some very big winterstorms there. I have been here in SEMI now for a couple of years and I have not seen anything close to what the EC gets. I am used to be getting feet of snow, not 1-3 inches or 2-4 inches and clipper crap. Anyways, family of mine told me that conditions there will deteriorate very fast sometime Monday and especially Tuesday. To be honest, I was thinking of flying there tomorrow to experience the Blizzard there. 

Also, more snow for them on Thursday and possibly more over the weekend with bitter cold air. EC is the place to be next week and beyond. Boston will get inundated as well. Fun times ahead there.  

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From LOT:

 

 

DID BUMP UP SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WINDS TURN NE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARING AT LEAST POSSIBLE.
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A SLIGHT MAX IN THE QPF
VALUES OVER THE AREA AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A BUMP IN
THE LOW LEVEL OMEGA STARTING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE 1-3 INCHES WEST OF A
WAUKEGAN TO STREATOR LINE...AND 2-4 INCHES EAST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE MESOSCALE BANDING THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. 
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Wife is headed to NYC tomorrow till tues night...how bad does it look?

 

Pretty nasty.

Looks like Boston will get the brunt though.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Should I go with?

 

Yeah I'd go with to experience that!

Never been in a Nor'easter before. Been in a few winter storms out West and the Southeast though.

 

They're going to get more than we will in the next week or so.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Should I go with?

If you're still wondering, no doubt you should go. I would say NYC is the city to be in for this one out of all of the major east coast cities. If you have the chance to experience a historic storm to epic proportions you should definitely jump on the opportunity. Airports may be closed for a while though so don't expect to get back here in a couple of days.

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