Tom Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 Here we are, mid/late April and we are tracking a potential formidable late season snowfall across the MW/GL's region. It will be April's version of a TX Panhandle cutter which will begin developing along a very potent cold front dropping down through the Great Plains on the infamous day of 4/20 (for various recreational reasons). Let's discuss... 00z Euro still holding onto the idea that MI will be the jack zone... @jaster220, I didn't realize that there is so much vegetation in bloom since I'm out here in AZ. This would be a bad scenario and I have to agree with you that it would be bad timing. In any event, the farther east you are the better chance of getting more snow bc it'll likely fall at night...otherwise, those who see snow falling during the day will prob just see slushy accumulations unless its ripping hard. 00z EPS... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 Yeah it is definitely going to be all about the timing all the models have heavy snow in my area but the GFS and the Euro have some of the snow falling while it's dark. The NAM has all of the snow falling in the daytime hours which would give me hardly any if any accumulation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 From EAX 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 Fun fact: Our last measurable snowfall in TOP was Feb 17 (0.4") which would be over two months ago (62 days) from April 20 (our next chance). 5 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 The NAM is sticking with a farther nw track. My guess is it will trend southeast toward the other models. 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 Just now, Hawkeye said: The NAM is sticking with a farther nw track. My guess is it will trend southeast toward the other models. Do you think it's more of a Northwest track or is the NAM a little slower with the system overall and the accumulation is further north west due to timing of the snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 Oh good, maybe we can make up the almost 3' snowfall deficit in GR this year... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 RDPS is still well south of the NAM Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 It looks like the heaviest snow is trending south of I-80. 12z Euro Kuchera is also somehow slightly higher totals than 10:1 lol. I can't imagine very good ratios out of this. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2021 Report Share Posted April 17, 2021 18z GFS continues to show a damaging amount of snow for Missouri given how far along the vegetation is. My fruit trees are leafed out and many other trees are as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 00z NAM shifted south 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 Looks like most of the snow for my back yard will fall between 7am through noon. I would think it would be unlikely that I would see more than a slushy inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 NWS KC targeting NW MO with highest accumulation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 00z Euro/EPS nudged SE a bit... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 The GFS is way south. 2 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 12z models coming into agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 (edited) Henry Margusity "Weather Madness" prediction... Edited April 18, 2021 by kush61 .webp image not visible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 12z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 The trend for the snow is now more south and lighter. So it looks like the big issue for the week with be for a hard freeze. At this time it is nice and sunny and a pleasant 61 here at my house. I think this will be a good time to go out and cut the grass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 Looks like the main show will pass to my south, but I just want 0.6" to hit 50" for the season, haha. Also might as well get snow if we're going to be stuck in the 30s all day tommorrow. Would probably break a daily record without a midnight high. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2021 Report Share Posted April 18, 2021 WWA issued for KC Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-190400- /O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.210420T0300Z-210420T1500Z/ Atchison KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Atchison MO- Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew- De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell- Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard- Including the cities of Atchison, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City, Greentop, Downing, Glenwood, Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan, Green City, Kirksville, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury, Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, and New Franklin 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 00z HRRR... still much farther north than the global models. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 00z 3k NAM... have to think the HRRR will trend south tomorrow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 6z GFS remains mostly the same. For the KC area most of the snow falls between 4am and noon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 There’s a rain/snow mix being reported in parts of central Iowa this morning. I don’t mind the snow mostly missing here. The main thing for me to worry about now is how hard it will freeze. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 The battle between the Euro/EPS and GFS/GEFS for this system...GFS/GEFS will win this one as it looks like a swing and a miss for Chicago (I'm sure there are plenty who are thrilled). The GFS always maintained a weaker and SE track across the Lower Lakes region but held steady near KC/MO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Sparky said: There’s a rain/snow mix being reported in parts of central Iowa this morning. I don’t mind the snow mostly missing here. The main thing for me to worry about now is how hard it will freeze. The latest Euro has 27º here Wednesday morning and 24º Thursday morning. Plants will need to be covered well. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 ATTM NWS point forecast has 29° here for 2 nights. I hope the Euro is wrong! Currently it is raining lightly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 On 4/17/2021 at 10:47 AM, Stacsh said: Oh good, maybe we can make up the almost 3' snowfall deficit in GR this year... Darn, couldn't even get snow out of this. Not our year in GR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 12z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 Getting a few flakes right now. First time it's snowed in almost 2 months (2/21)!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 Wet snowflakes are falling in Lincoln this afternoon. First time since 2/21 as well. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 The global models won this battle. The NAM/HRRR blew it. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 Quite the map for April 19th 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 April 19th folks lol! Too bad it’s the middle of the afternoon, this could probably accumulate at night. IMG_0336.MP4 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 Visibility is probably down to like a quarter mile right now. Dang we needed this band later, tonight will be mostly to the south. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: The global models won this battle. The NAM/HRRR blew it. I think there still might be some surprise changes with this one. 18z NAM just went back north again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 It’s trying (but struggling) to stick to grassy surfaces 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 Snow has tapered off considerably now, just a very light dusting. 0.1" would be a generous number. It was quite the sight to see considering how late in the season it is and not a flake has fallen in nearly 2 months. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 19, 2021 Report Share Posted April 19, 2021 In da Yoop till move in day on May 7th. 3" down. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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