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Here we are, mid/late April and we are tracking a potential formidable late season snowfall across the MW/GL's region.  It will be April's version of a TX Panhandle cutter which will begin developing along a very potent cold front dropping down through the Great Plains on the infamous day of 4/20 (for various recreational reasons).  Let's discuss...

00z Euro still holding onto the idea that MI will be the jack zone... @jaster220, I didn't realize that there is so much vegetation in bloom since I'm out here in AZ.  This would be a bad scenario and I have to agree with you that it would be bad timing.

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In any event, the farther east you are the better chance of getting more snow bc it'll likely fall at night...otherwise, those who see snow falling during the day will prob just see slushy accumulations unless its ripping hard.

00z EPS...

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Yeah it is definitely going to be all about the timing all the models have heavy snow in my area but the GFS and the Euro have some of the snow falling while it's dark. The NAM has all of the snow falling in the daytime hours which would give me hardly any if any accumulation.

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Fun fact: Our last measurable snowfall in TOP was Feb 17 (0.4") which would be over two months ago (62 days) from April 20 (our next chance).

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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The NAM is sticking with a farther nw track.  My guess is it will trend southeast toward the other models.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, Hawkeye said:

The NAM is sticking with a farther nw track.  My guess is it will trend southeast toward the other models.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Do you think it's more of a Northwest track or is the NAM a little slower with the system overall and the accumulation is further north west due to timing of the snow?

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RDPS is still well south of the NAM

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It looks like the heaviest snow is trending south of I-80. 12z Euro Kuchera is also somehow slightly higher totals than 10:1 lol. I can't imagine very good ratios out of this. 

 

1619028000-nd02LK4XQ4g.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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18z GFS continues to show a damaging amount of snow for Missouri given how far along the vegetation is. My fruit trees are leafed out and many other trees are as well.

image.thumb.png.1308a05b338ff0352fed6820de0408af.png

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00z NAM shifted south

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is way south.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The trend for the snow is now more south and lighter. So it looks like the big issue for the week with be for a hard freeze. At this time it is nice and sunny and a pleasant 61 here at my house. I think this will be a good time to go out and cut the grass.

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Looks like the main show will pass to my south, but I just want 0.6" to hit 50" for the season, haha. Also might as well get snow if we're going to be stuck in the 30s all day tommorrow. Would probably break a daily record without a midnight high. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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WWA issued for KC

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021


KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-190400-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0010.210420T0300Z-210420T1500Z/
Atchison KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Atchison MO-
Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-Holt-Andrew-
De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-
Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-
Including the cities of Atchison, Wathena, Elwood, Troy,
Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
Lenexa, Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City,
Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer,
Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City, Greentop, Downing, Glenwood,
Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah,
Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star,
Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan, Green City,
Kirksville, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg,
Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe,
Brookfield, Marceline, Macon, La Plata, Parkville, Platte City,
Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty,
Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,
Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City, Independence,
Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette,
Glasgow, and New Franklin
259 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
CDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Monday to 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.
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00z HRRR... still much farther north than the global models.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z 3k NAM... have to think the HRRR will trend south tomorrow.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There’s a rain/snow mix being reported in parts of central Iowa this morning. I don’t mind the snow mostly missing here. The main thing for me to worry about now is how hard it will freeze.

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The battle between the Euro/EPS and GFS/GEFS for this system...GFS/GEFS will win this one as it looks like a swing and a miss for Chicago (I'm sure there are plenty who are thrilled).  The GFS always maintained a weaker and SE track across the Lower Lakes region but held steady near KC/MO.

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

There’s a rain/snow mix being reported in parts of central Iowa this morning. I don’t mind the snow mostly missing here. The main thing for me to worry about now is how hard it will freeze.

The latest Euro has 27º here Wednesday morning and 24º Thursday morning.  Plants will need to be covered well.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 4/17/2021 at 10:47 AM, Stacsh said:

Oh good, maybe we can make up the almost 3' snowfall deficit in GR this year...

Darn, couldn't even get snow out of this.  Not our year in GR.  

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Wet snowflakes are falling in Lincoln this afternoon. First time since 2/21 as well.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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The global models won this battle.  The NAM/HRRR blew it.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Visibility is probably down to like a quarter mile right now. Dang we needed this band later, tonight will be mostly to the south.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The global models won this battle.  The NAM/HRRR blew it.

I think there still might be some surprise changes with this one. 18z NAM just went back north again.

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Snow has tapered off considerably now, just a very light dusting. 0.1" would be a generous number. It was quite the sight to see considering how late in the season it is and not a flake has fallen in nearly 2 months. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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All I got out of this is a few sprinkles this morning.  That's fine with me.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last evening I thought for sure the forecast was a bust.  We had fairly heavy snow in the late afternoon, but hard to accumulate in the daytime hours of April.  About 8:30 PM it started to snow, which went till after midnight.  I woke up this morning with a solid 2" on the grass and cars.  Streets and sidewalks had no accumulation, but were very slick in places.  Our school parking lot looked like glass when I arrived 15 minutes ago.  Our school supt. even tweeted this morning that he'd been out driving and warned of slick spots, but that school would be starting on time.

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Picked up 3.75" at my house with light snow still falling. This is the 2nd heaviest snowfall this season here. Crazy.

20210420_072818.jpg

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  • Snow 4
  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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35 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

@ClintonDid you guys get any accumulation?  I usually look at the KC Scout highway camera website, but it appears to be down.  With a brother and family living in Shawnee, I am always interested in KC weather.  Oh, and I'm also a huge Royals fan.  

About a 1/2in here snow didn't start until 6:30.  It will have a hard time piling up with the daylight.

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10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Picked up 3.75" at my house with light snow still falling. This is the 2nd heaviest snowfall this season here. Crazy.

20210420_072818.jpg

If some of it can stay around it may protect your vegetation from the freeze.

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