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Summer 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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As we near the mid portion of Spring, the signals from mother nature are bi polar to say the least.  It has been a really warm start overall since March but that has suddenly flipped around and some of you are feeling (or about to) the last signs of Ol' Man Winter for the season.  Of course, depending on your location, that may change but generally speaking I can say with confidence that we are heading in the right direction once we close out April.  

By the time we enter met Summer, my prediction is for the Heat to build in from the SW into the heartland of the nation.  My only concern is how strong does the blocking pattern form in NE Canada/Greenland that can influence the pattern across the MW/GL's region.  Needless to say, this Summer will feature some unusual blocking formations and cut-off troughs IMHO.  The west coast ridge will fire up early and often as it appears at this point.  All the global models are signaling this to be a strong feature.  Knowingly, the LRC, provides us with clues that the pattern will remain active.  I know some outlets are all-in on a hot/dry summer across the corn belt/heartland, but I have this voice in my head saying " not so fast".  How so??  Let's discuss...

Blocking, Blocking, Blocking...I'm a Big Believer that this year and next will produce anomalous blocking patterns across the N Hemisphere.  Coming out of what has been the lowest Solar Cycle in over 100 years, the jet stream is going to behave in unusual ways in the coming months.  In terms of the Summer, could there be a benefit to this blocking?  Yes, and I am already seeing the global models trending that way.  The CFSv2 has been rock steady of late indicating lower heights over the eastern part of the CONUS.  Notice that west-based Greenland Block (Strong LRC signal).

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Wet signal across the corn belt regions, SE and more importantly, the 4 corners....

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IMO, this summer will be very active with regards to Severe Wx as we close in on June.  Long-Lived MCS's/Derecho's?  Could some members on here experience what IA did last year?  I think the pattern could support this come June/July.  Who will see bursts of Heat???  I don't, however, see long-lasting heat waves this summer but there will be some periods of heat, esp the Plains states and likely Upper MW.

 

 

 

 

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I'm holding the "not so fast" camp down hard, too. My main threats over the interior west going forward are the rapidly increasing drought threat. Drought does not always translate to heat.

If I were over the proper agriculture dept, I'd have a full disaster support initiative ready for a flash drought crisis.

Longer range known climate patters here lead me in the direction of a long-term trough showing up in at least one summer month in a probably 2009ish sort of way. Lots of flavors of the late 80s years and the 1990-1994 mini-era.

I think long-term warmth east of Amarillo is going to be hard to come by in the core of summer while the stable and solid ridge west and southwest US is intensifying through July and Aug...

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Seeing my old friend, the EPO wake up in the last few months, esp as the SSTs make an attempt at looking Niño to CP-based warming rolling forward.

Will be interesting as well to see what effects the Pac tropical season will do as the warm waters surface. West Pacific typhoons are going to be a modulator and influence in our region's weather after July 1.

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For what it is worth Paul Pastelok at Accuweather has his summer outlook. For Michigan and most of the Great Lakes area he thinks that there will more thunder than average and temperatures near to just above average. He thinks the summer will be cooler over all than last summer and just about as wet. His ideas are for “ A weak La Nina to neutral phase of ENSO is expected this summer. The trend we followed was a La Nina in the preceding winter, transition to neutral or weak La Nina in spring and closer to neutral through summer. Also, we are favoring a neutral to La Nina fall. A lean toward La Nina could favor a busy tropical season

On the thunderstorm idea “Upper high pressure will build over the Southwest in May and June. Disturbances tracking over the top of an upper-level high pressure area in the Southwest can produce severe weather in a path from the Dakotas and Minnesota to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Strong, damaging thunderstorms complexes and perhaps a derecho can occur.”

So he is not really sticking his neck out too much. We will see.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The Euro seasonal came out the other day and it is beginning to show signs of trending more towards the CFSv2 climate model which is suggesting the domination of a west coast ridge pattern.  See maps below...

 

 

1.png

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What was once a dry June, it has trended a lot wetter for the heartland...on a side note, if you look at the maps above and what I find strikingly fascinating is the suggestion of a displaced vortex over the northern parts of Canada.  Year without a Summer up there?  Sheesh.  Imagine living up that way and possibly seeing it snow in the summer.  My personal opinion, this is a Big time clue for what is the evolution of a climatic shift.  Moreover, how will this effect our winter next year??  My mind is always pondering on these ideas.  Let's get through Summer first...who will have an enjoyable summer pattern and who will not???  That is the question that remains to be seen.

4.png

 

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It's always next year that is going to be the "never ending winter" or the beginning of a climate shift. That call has been made for several years in a row now. I can guarantee you I can go back to posts last year talking about the same thing and the year before that, etc. Can't wait to see what next winter's forecast is going to be. Actually I already know.....

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8 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It's always next year that is going to be the "never ending winter" or the beginning of a climate shift. That call has been made for several years in a row now. I can guarantee you I can go back to posts last year talking about the same thing and the year before that, etc. Can't wait to see what next winter's forecast is going to be. Actually I already know.....

If you look closely at the data, it’s already begun IMHO.  It started around 2013-14.  We can always disagree.  Btw, I wasn’t referring to the U.S. but instead, I was looking at the globe as a whole and specifically what’s been transpiring up north in Canada in recent summers, or lack there of.

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On 5/7/2021 at 10:06 AM, Tom said:

If you look closely at the data, it’s already begun IMHO.  It started around 2013-14.  We can always disagree.  Btw, I wasn’t referring to the U.S. but instead, I was looking at the globe as a whole and specifically what’s been transpiring up north in Canada in recent summers, or lack there of.

Absolutely and unequivocally correct and well said. Have to see the globe as a whole instead of looking at all the places we're told. Same that we need to look at the atmosphere vertically more than we do.

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33 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Absolutely and unequivocally correct and well said. Have to see the globe as a whole instead of looking at all the places we're told. Same that we need to look at the atmosphere vertically more than we do.

There is evidence the top of the atmosphere is cooling rapidly and causing the fuel in planes to clog up in the engines.  From what I remember, this hasn’t happened in a very long time and has come on very quickly.

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

There is evidence the top of the atmosphere is cooling rapidly and causing the fuel in planes to clog up in the engines.  From what I remember, this hasn’t happened in a very long time and has come on very quickly.

Perfect observation and incredibly well timed, my friend.

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Thinking by then west coast ridge has more prominence, trough more center-east of Rockies. There's going to be weird stuff up this July. Could be a both scenario, too. Closed heat dome over the GLs with a full trough blocked in underneath. Ridge stacked E/NE US. 

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Huge 7 day temp spike in the N. PAC "Blob 2021" region. ENSO contrast reflects Modoki flavor development or future development in terms of atmosphere.

Almost cued up just as written. 

On 4/17/2021 at 4:15 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Seeing my old friend, the EPO wake up in the last few months, esp as the SSTs make an attempt at looking Niño to CP-based warming rolling forward.

Will be interesting as well to see what effects the Pac tropical season will do as the warm waters surface. West Pacific typhoons are going to be a modulator and influence in our region's weather after July 1.

My summer is over, in essence. My hard summer will be about 4 weeks. For the rain and flooding, party like it's 1989-94. Region under most concern for a stationary heat dome in terms of regional extremes is the NE part of our area and Great lakes

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Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

Huge 7 day temp spike in the N. PAC "Blob 2021" region. ENSO contrast reflects Modoki flavor development or future development in terms of atmosphere.

Almost cued up just as written. 

My summer is over, in essence. My hard summer will be about 4 weeks. For the rain and flooding, party like it's 1989-94. Region under most concern for a stationary heat dome in terms of regional extremes is the NE part of our area and Great lakes

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.35 (1).png

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Some more climate model data came in the other day as the IRI Multi-Model ensemble is suggesting a normal summer down in the S Plains into the MW, Hot in the West and C Plains (I don't believe NE/KS will get that warm) and a cool summer in the Upper MW (I don't think so)??

JJA21_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JJA21_NAm_pcp.gif

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Here are some maps from the JMA seasonal for the upcoming Summer season...

 

 1.png

 

Temp & Precip...

Y202105.D1100_gl2.png

 

It's interesting to see that it may get wetter in the SW and the S plains/GOM region remain wet...

Y202105.D1100_gl0.png

 

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Temp...

Y202105.D1100_gl2.png

 

SW deserts could finally have a good Monsoon season...the CFSv2 has been indicating a good start come July...SE coast of U.S. showing tropical trouble???  IMO, I think this will be focused more on W FL and the eastern Gulf come July.

Y202105.D1100_gl0.png

 

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Temp...

Y202105.D1100_gl2.png

 

Widespread wet pattern across the eastern CONUS...this could very well be an active part of the Hurricane season with systems coming up from the GOM.

Y202105.D1100_gl0.png

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If not numerous in terms of hurricane activity, destructive will be likely at the least. As Tom said, Gulf and EC are going to get razed, it appears while the Plains and E. US sit under normal to below or even much below in temps. Will feel like the shortest summer in my life if my thoughts actually come to fruition. Only seeing isolated 1c above temps in the models is a sign that there should probably be more cold there. 

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As we near the start of met Summer, I think it's safe to say that many of us are already in "summer mode".  The unofficial kick off to summer begins this weekend as we celebrate Memorial Day weekend while giving thanks to those military personnel who have sacrificed their lives serving the armed forces for our beloved country.  I always enjoy this time of year for many reasons, including my B Day weekend, but none moreso than spending time outdoors with family and friends.  With that being said, that brings me to the topic of this post...what type of weather could we experience???

 

Is there a real possibility that a "Year Without a Summer" may occur for a few members on here???  When looking at the broad scope of things across North America, the LR signal I'm seeing over the course of the summer months,  real summer may only show itself this year here and there.  If you live down in TX/OK, the wx pattern is not so bright... @OKwx2k4 and those folks up near the KC/MO region could be stuck in a trough-like pattern.  Months ago, the CFSv2 had been showing signs that a central CONUS trough would set up somewhere over the Plains or MW, migrating east and west a bit.  As we near the start of June, where does this trough set up???  If you believe the CFSv2 weeklies and Euro weeklies, TX/OK and the S Plains are going to be stuck in a rough wet and cool pattern.

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The CFSv2 is rock steady of a cooler pattern with abundant moisture for the S Plains...

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Meanwhile, those who live to the N and E of the aforementioned central CONUS trough, this is where bursts of heat and real summer will occur.  I truly feel that the Upper MW will end up having the highest departures from normal and skirt east into the GL's region.  However, there appears to be a signal that Aug may turn abruptly chilly as has been the case in a few years during the last 5-7 years over areas of our Sub Forum.  The way the blocking patterns are setting up this season, it won't surprise me to see unusually amplified patterns that tug down cold troughs out of Canada mid/late summer.  Blocking, Blocking and more Blocking....that is, and will be, the theme of 2021 and into 2022...this is my gut feeling as we move along this year.

 

I'd like to wait and see what the climate models show early next week before diving into more details for the Summer months.  Maybe I'll chime in on what is going on up in Canada for our climate folks.  Something really fascinating is brewing up there.  Nature is working in her mysterious ways and delivering very interesting weather patterns across the globe.

 

 

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I haven't posted the updated seasonal maps due to an extremely busy schedule, but today I have some time and I'll post some maps below.  Since we are already into June, I'm not going to pay much attn to this month but instead focus our attn to July/Aug.  The Euro seasonal is suggesting and following the CFSv2 lead of firing up the NW NAMER ridge.  If you recall, the Euro did not show this in previous runs, thus, it allows for the continuation of BN temps across the southern parts of the central CONUS.  

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I do like the trend towards a wetter Monsoon in the SW as this has been on my mind for weeks now.

5.png

 

In August, another torch month for the Upper MW and MW???  Hmmm, not going to completely buy that scenario ATM, but instead, I'm predicting a cooler finish to the Summer for a broad area of the central states.  Something really unusual is brewing up and my gut is telling me to look out for strong summer CF's to push through mid/late Aug.

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Now, let's see what the CPC's SST CA long lead forecasts show for the entire Summer....

cat2m_anom.0.png

 

caprec_anom.0.png

 

 

Hints of the pattern heading into Sept???  @CentralNebWeather, those farmers you were speaking of that make LR predictions of an early start to Autumn may be in the cards.  Both the Euro & CFSv2 are seeing it....yet another year whereby Canada fills up with Cold early and often.  Build that snow up there nature...we will be seeing you soon!

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7.png

 

 

The CFSv2 last 25 runs...

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The last 15 runs...

 

 

 

1.gif

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31 minutes ago, Tom said:
31 minutes ago, Tom said:

n August, another torch month for the Upper MW and MW???  Hmmm, not going to completely buy that scenario ATM, but instead, I'm predicting a cooler finish to the Summer for a broad area of the central states.  Something really unusual is brewing up and my gut is telling me to look out for strong summer CF's to push through mid/late Aug.

Here in Grand Rapids in past summers very warm years when June's mean temperature was much above average (1919, 1933, 1921,1934, 2005, 1923,1987 ect) had warm July's while not all but most had cooler temperatures in August.

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I haven't posted the updated seasonal maps due to an extremely busy schedule, but today I have some time and I'll post some maps below.  Since we are already into June, I'm not going to pay much attn to this month but instead focus our attn to July/Aug.  The Euro seasonal is suggesting and following the CFSv2 lead of firing up the NW NAMER ridge.  If you recall, the Euro did not show this in previous runs, thus, it allows for the continuation of BN temps across the southern parts of the central CONUS.  

1.png

 

3.png

 

I do like the trend towards a wetter Monsoon in the SW as this has been on my mind for weeks now.

5.png

 

In August, another torch month for the Upper MW and MW???  Hmmm, not going to completely buy that scenario ATM, but instead, I'm predicting a cooler finish to the Summer for a broad area of the central states.  Something really unusual is brewing up and my gut is telling me to look out for strong summer CF's to push through mid/late Aug.

4.png

 

Now, let's see what the CPC's SST CA long lead forecasts show for the entire Summer....

cat2m_anom.0.png

 

caprec_anom.0.png

 

 

Hints of the pattern heading into Sept???  @CentralNebWeather, those farmers you were speaking of that make LR predictions of an early start to Autumn may be in the cards.  Both the Euro & CFSv2 are seeing it....yet another year whereby Canada fills up with Cold early and often.  Build that snow up there nature...we will be seeing you soon!

6.png

7.png

 

 

The CFSv2 last 25 runs...

8.png

 

The last 15 runs...

1.gif

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I will be talking to my farmer friend next week to see what Agricultural Meteorologists are saying about fall and winter. They have for 9 months been predicting 2021-2022 Fall and Winter to be brutal, early cold, big snow season, extremely cold winter. Will be interesting to see if they are sticking to this or not. 

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17 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I will be talking to my farmer friend next week to see what Agricultural Meteorologists are saying about fall and winter. They have for 9 months been predicting 2021-2022 Fall and Winter to be brutal, early cold, big snow season, extremely cold winter. Will be interesting to see if they are sticking to this or not. 

The Southern Hemisphere has been onto a rocking start.  Hope that’s a sign for the US.  The CFSv2 has been suggesting this for weeks teasing me with a banner winter.  Slower start in Dec but Jan-Mar looks like a non-stop parade.  I pray it holds!

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Thank you for sharing those Tom.

You guys can lock that in on the massive winter setup. I'm not even being modest with it. I've never witnessed seasons or patterns basically "telegraph" crashes across one another the way we are seeing now. I saw hints of stuff like it in 2009 and going back to weather data in one of the 70s winters but all harbingers point to getting ready as we can for a doosy. Eastern 2/3 to a central winter that locks and rocks. 

An unbelievable amount of snow around the pole is going to do a great thing for us next year, as Tom is hinting.

So much for me not talking about winter. Lol. I survived like 3 days....

"HI. My name is OkWx2k4 and I'm a winterholic....." 😂

The Blob is back....back again....Blob is back....tell a friend..... 😀

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The mean this year after the first 11 days of June at Grand Rapids is 73.5 that is a departure of +7.2. It is too early to think of where this year will end up. But there have been 28 years were June has had a mean of 70 or better for June. Of the 28 years only 3 years (1931, 1939 and 2016) also had a July and August that were warmer that average. (that is more than +0.5°) So in that regard history tells us that after June (if indeed June ends up with a mean of 70.0 or more) that either July or August will be most likely be below average or near average.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The mean this year after the first 11 days of June at Grand Rapids is 73.5 that is a departure of +7.2. It is too early to think of where this year will end up. But there have been 28 years were June has had a mean of 70 or better for June. Of the 28 years only 3 years (1931, 1939 and 2016) also had a July and August that were warmer that average. (that is more than +0.5°) So in that regard history tells us that after June (if indeed June ends up with a mean of 70.0 or more) that either July or August will be most likely be below average or near average.

Thanks for digging up those stats.  I’m optimistic that the models do point towards a more seasonal July and cooler Aug around here.  I’d rather have a hot June than later in July/Aug when we reach peak avg temps.

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Sorry about that OmahaSnowFan. I know what my post sounded like. I should use more calm amd objective terms. I believe this will be a short summer and we have exceedingly high chances for that turning into a short autumn and a both lengthy and cold winter again. 

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8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Wash, rinse, repeat..... things not seen before or in decades are showing an epic winter is coming, then fail again. And again.

See topic here: 

 

They need a support group for people addicted to winter weather😆

I'd probably be in that support group LOL. I know your backyard got shafted a bit last year, but I'd consider the Late Jan-mid Feb stretch pretty epic in Lincoln. Though I know 09-10 is the 21st century gold standard for Nebraska winters. Just looking at the data, that year had very long periods of consistent cold, a bit less extreme cold. Which definitely helped maintain a snowpack for 3 months straight. 18"+ depths achieved in Omaha/Lincoln not seen in 18/19 or last winter. In 09-10, it probably helped that the snowpack started building in December vs. winter finally arriving in late January. The February sun angle doesn't play around. 03-04 would be an exception, three back to back 6-12" storms. KOMA maxed out at a snow depth of 26"! Omaha was basically the bullseye for that pattern though, so of course it's going to be a rare occurance. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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6 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'd probably be in that support group LOL. I know your backyard got shafted a bit last year, but I'd consider the Late Jan-mid Feb stretch pretty epic in Lincoln. Though I know 09-10 is the 21st century gold standard for Nebraska winters. Just looking at the data, that year had very long periods of consistent cold, a bit less extreme cold. Which definitely helped maintain a snowpack for 3 months straight. 18"+ depths achieved in Omaha/Lincoln not seen in 18/19 or last winter. In 09-10, it probably helped that the snowpack started building in December vs. winter finally arriving in late January. The February sun angle doesn't play around. 03-04 would be an exception, three back to back 6-12" storms. KOMA maxed out at a snow depth of 26"! Omaha was basically the bullseye for that pattern though, so of course it's going to be a rare occurance. 

I remember driving around neighborhoods after the Christmas storm and the mountains of snow was unbelievable. And it stayed forever!

I actually liked last winter for the most part. Minus the 2 weeks in February, every month would have averaged above normal and we had above average snowfall, although nothing really big IMBY. Of course the snowfall suddenly ended in mid February too.

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10 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I remember driving around neighborhoods after the Christmas storm and the mountains of snow was unbelievable. And it stayed forever!

I actually liked last winter for the most part. Minus the 2 weeks in February, every month would have averaged above normal and we had above average snowfall, although nothing really big IMBY. Of course the snowfall suddenly ended in mid February too.

It's rare air to get above avg snowfall and temps both. 

I never got any of the model hyped snows last winter either but finished as an average but fun winter with a taste of the arctic.

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16 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I'd probably be in that support group LOL. I know your backyard got shafted a bit last year, but I'd consider the Late Jan-mid Feb stretch pretty epic in Lincoln. Though I know 09-10 is the 21st century gold standard for Nebraska winters. Just looking at the data, that year had very long periods of consistent cold, a bit less extreme cold. Which definitely helped maintain a snowpack for 3 months straight. 18"+ depths achieved in Omaha/Lincoln not seen in 18/19 or last winter. In 09-10, it probably helped that the snowpack started building in December vs. winter finally arriving in late January. The February sun angle doesn't play around. 03-04 would be an exception, three back to back 6-12" storms. KOMA maxed out at a snow depth of 26"! Omaha was basically the bullseye for that pattern though, so of course it's going to be a rare occurance. 

2009-10 is the "Gold Standard" of winter for our era, for sure. It gets a 10/10 for all metrics from me, then 2010-11 blew the standard away after that for what winter had done. 2010-11 was the balance to counter 2008-09 in my opinion. Was as snowy as 08-09 was icy here. Unforgettable trifecta. 

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14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I remember driving around neighborhoods after the Christmas storm and the mountains of snow was unbelievable. And it stayed forever!

I actually liked last winter for the most part. Minus the 2 weeks in February, every month would have averaged above normal and we had above average snowfall, although nothing really big IMBY. Of course the snowfall suddenly ended in mid February too.

That seems like it was quite the intense blizzard. Temps in the teens, 25-30 mph sustained winds, a foot of snow, probably insane drifts. 1/25 this year had a couple more inches in Lincoln, but probably looked tame in comparison to the 09 Christmas blizzard. I did like the relatively light winds though, snow is usually more enjoyable when it's not pelting your face. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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As we near the mid point of the calendar year, will Summer ever appear for our Canadian friends up north?  It's looking doubtful as the LR climate models all point towards a long term-long wave Vortex to be parked up near Hudson Bay and just west of Greenland.  Why is this important???  Well, it is my opinion that this will have eventually have an impact for the lower 48 as we move into the later parts of the Summer when we should typically see the "dog days" of Summer in August.  While not getting to far ahead of myself, I don't foresee any long standing heat waves for our Sub in August.  

Let's focus on what the latest JMA seasonal has to say for the remaining months of Summer (July and Aug).  This model has been doing a decent job with the pattern so I'm pretty confident to see the development of a long wave W NAMER ridge to pop in July and into Aug.  There are other LR clues that suggest this to transpire which I look for and that ridge will likely keep the -EPO pattern entrenched, thus, leading our Sub into a more seasonal, at times, cooler and more active pattern.  As @westMJim showed in his stats, the odds of this month of June ending up warmer than normal suggest that July/Aug may end up cooler.  I'm starting to lean that way and more impressively, I see Aug being the coolest month.

 

Here is the July 500mb pattern...

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August...

 

2.png

 

Temp/Precip for August...W/NW coast and inter-mountain Heat, cool Texas and pretty much seasonal eastern CONUS...

 

Y202106.D1000_gl2.png

 

Precip...SW Monsoon looks good...

Y202106.D1000_gl0.png

 

August...looks pretty similar to July

Y202106.D1000_gl2.png

 

Precip...

Y202106.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

Monday's Euro Weeklies maintain a -EPO/-WPO throughout the entire run into the end of July.  This mirrors the velocity maps above that the JMA seasonal is suggesting as well.  Boy, this has me thinking longer range...the talk of Blizzards and Winter in previous posts above, you all know the thought of Snow is on my mind...can the Winter of 2021-22 shine???  Let's all enjoy this summer and whatever wx it brings.

 

 

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I’m hoping that predictions of another bitter snowy or icy nightmare doesn’t materialize for No Tx.  
Last years week without electricity and 37* in the house was not fun.  I spent 75% of it alone as my husband was busy keeping the City Emergency Services on their feet.  
 

However, I think my hopes will be dashed and I’m preparing.  Including solar lamps and cell charger.  Converting my fireplace away from an electric start.  
This new phase is not good for the southern third of the nation as we are not adapted to it in a hundred ways.  
But it is what it is and I’m getting ready.  
 

Keep me informed. I’d appreciate it.  
And yes, it’s been an odd summer here so far.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anyone remember how blow torch warm the Euro seasonal was not long ago?  Well, here we go...what did the latest seasonal run of the ECMWF show??  Kuddo's to the CFSv2 for being the lead climate model showing a cooler July and Aug because the almighty (cough) Euro is playing catch up.

July has trended a lot cooler for the central/eastern CONUS and wetter....this same trend continues into Aug and my personal prediction is for a broad area of BN temps for our Sub.

 

July....

1.png

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Aug...

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While we begin the 2nd half of Summer, met Fall is not to far away to begin discussion on what may lie down the road.  As the warm waters in the NE PAC continue to grow, the EPO is likely to be a driving force to the North American pattern.  It has tried to appear here and there over the last few years but this year I do see strong agreement among the models that this coming cold season it will be an important piece to the puzzle.

SST Anomaly Charts - 20210707

 

So, the Euro seasonal continues to keep a long term long wave PAC NW/West Coast Ridge into Sept and an EC ridge...the path of least resistance would suggest a troughy pattern across our Sub.  Early start to Autumn??  I'm on the side of some late summer CF's swinging through as Autumn really fires up across Alaska and N C.A. this year.  The summer that never was will continue across the Archipelago and near Greenland.  There is a strong possibility that the ice up near Baffin Bay/Baffin Island may not fully melt this summer.  Nearly every climate model keeps an anomalously strong trough in this vicinity keeping it cold throughout the remaining months of summer and an early start to the snow season up there in late Aug.

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The latest sea ice map shows some really thick ice over northern parts of Hudson Bay/Hudson Straits...

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This years Arctic summer has been one of the coldest since 2013 & 2014 which some scientists suggest was the start of the reversal of Arctic sea ice melt.  There are some very interesting wx phenomena happening across the globe today and the ferocious Winter the Southern Hemisphere is experiencing is probably an indication of what will transpire for the Northern Hemisphere.  I don't know about you, but I'm enjoying every bit of summer bc my gut feeling is that the majority of the U.S. is overdue for an old fashioned Winter...meaning, from start to finish.  Who's ready??

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

KC office posted this over the weekend and my summer has been below average temps and above average on precip. Even with the hot weather coming I believe summer will finish the same.

Halfway through the summer (Jun-Aug) we are 2.3 degrees below normal for the season. KC, on average has 15 days of 90 degrees or more at this point...this year we've had 14. We have not had a 100 degree day this summer with the warmest temp being 98 on 6/17 and 6/18. The 90s will return later this week. #Summer2021InKC

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A warm 78* this AM with humidity at 58%.  Chance of rain this morning then here comes the heat.  
91* for the high.  It’s still summer.  
🤠👍
 

Update:   As feared, rain was a no show!😄

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Models haven't picked up on it yet but we should see a strong tropical system target the Louisiana coast around Aug 3rd or 4th.  There are 2 reasons I'm watching this, the 1st is we have a family vacation to the Florida panhandle and leave on the 8th and the second reason is some believe a new cycle length begins to take shape in late July and early August.  This is certainly an easy system to look for.

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Since this is the end of meteorological summer here is how KC finished up.

Summer (Jun-Aug) of 2021 in KC was hotter and wetter than normal. Temps were 2.3 degrees above normal making it the 34th warmest on he 133 year record. Precip was 1.04" above normal at 15.11". This was the 42nd wettest Summer on the 133-year record. #Summer2021InTheBooks

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No place to really share this but dtill….Imagine the weather that created this situation and how the fella must have felt.  
 https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2021/09/01/Hurricane-Ida-St-Bernard-Parish-Louisiana-cow-tree/5231630517311/?spt=su

Weather wise, we will see a drop in temps in a week but 94 from 100 isn’t the cool I was hoping for. 
It will be welcomed however.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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ORD finished off with the 8th warmest summer on record.  While it was warm and at times hot, what really stands out this summer is the humidity and very warm/muggy overnight temps.  Not a bad summer, esp if you consider how bad some of you got it out west and north. 

 

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