February 3rd-4th Plains Winter Storm

[Jaycee]

Shift more nw please!!

It will dude! Its our turn, it just has to haha

[DominicR]

I am rooting for you guys to! I need that NW trend to but to crazy though.

[gabel23]

It will dude! Its our turn, it just has to haha

You sure would think we could get one of these! 18z gfs sucks, lucky for us it's the 18z gfs.....

[gabel23]

Nam holds its course, solid 6-10 for most of eastern nebraska. I really hope other models follow suit tonight....

[Jaycee]

Nam holds its course, solid 6-10 for most of eastern nebraska. I really hope other models follow suit tonight....

 

http://grib2.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=00Z&STATIONID=OAX

[jcwxguy]

 

http://grib2.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=00Z&STATIONID=OAX

thats last nights 00z run, says 00z -01 FEB 2014

[Jaycee]

thats last nights 00z run, says 00z -01 FEB 2014

Oh goodness haha good catch. Well that sucks...

[jcwxguy]

Oh goodness haha good catch. Well that sucks...

new one

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/gfs_zpsaafaa63d.png

[winterfreak]

Pretty good hit for Omaha and points south.

[gabel23]

new one

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/gfs_zpsaafaa63d.png

Crappy for my area, would be lucky to get 3 inches this run. Frustrating gfs is holding its ground, if euro shows the same we can throw out the nam and pull out the rest of my hair....

[jcwxguy]

 

Got this from Tom from the Great lakes area. Euro looks decent for kansas and southeast nebraska 

[clintbeed1993]

So it looks like the model battle is on.  NAM/EURO vs GFS/Canadian.  Tomorrow will be the day of reckoning, and we should start to see who the winner will be.

[jcwxguy]

here is a better post by Tom

 

[OmahaBubble]

Good job euro.

[jcwxguy]

06z nam was good as well

[jcwxguy]

winter storm watches have been hoisted for parts of kansas so far.

 

  http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/wsw_zps8f650acb.png

 

only a matter of time before it expands east and north 

 

 

edit: now appears all of the TOP forecast area is under a watch as well.

 

edit: "Winter Storm Watch was considered for this forecast,

but due to the timing and some lingering uncertainty will allow the
day shift to reassess the impacts." -KANSAS CITY NWS 

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12znam_zpsd4854e0c.png

[gabel23]

I really hope the nam is the winner; there is going to be such a sharp cutoff from heavy snow/no snow. With this type of system it's usually the far SE part of the state that get hammered. 

 

 

[jcwxguy]

12z gfs was good for Lincoln/Omaha/Concordia Kansas and.points south and east

[winterfreak]

Yeah we're under a WSW now.

[Sven]

12 GFS...anybody got a look on it?

[gabel23]

12 GFS...anybody got a look on it?

[gabel23]

Euro snowfall map from Tom. 

 

 

[winterfreak]

Brutal run on the EURO.

[gabel23]

The models are weird today; nam holds its ground and is by far the wettest. GFS has the heaviest amts except it's in a narrow corridor. Euro has the widest deformation zone and yet the snow fall forecast is the smallest amt. I have to say things are still trying to get worked out, I'm hoping for a EURO track with the GFS result. That would make everyone happy in Eastern NE/Kansas 

[jcwxguy]

18z Nam is on crack. 

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/18znam_zps459896ff.png

[gabel23]

18z Nam is on crack. 

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/18znam_zps459896ff.png

It has to be isn't? I'm guessing euro wins out with a blend of the nam/gfs with those lollipop numbers located in se nebraska, maybe 8+.

[jcwxguy]

Winter storm watch now for parts of southeast Nebraska, including Lincoln but not Omaha

[DominicR]

Congrats KS/SE NE/S IA. Looks like a solid 6-12 inches with some local 12+ in E KS.

[Sven]

Hahahha Des Moines gets a wsw and we don't? Nice OAX

[DominicR]

Hahahha Des Moines gets a wsw and we don't? Nice OAX

 

Omaha right near 6+. That could change later or tommorow.

[jcwxguy]

talk about a very sharp cutoff near lincoln on the 00z nam through 42hrs 

[winterfreak]

The NAM absolutely clobbers me.

[DominicR]

The NAM absolutely clobbers me.

 

Yeah 12-16 inches far SE NE/KS/N MO/C IL.

[jcwxguy]

The NAM absolutely clobbers me.

clobbers a lot of kansas and southeast nebraska and missouri 

[Jaycee]

talk about a very sharp cutoff near lincoln on the 00z nam through 42hrs

Are we in that 12-14"?? I cant tell, literally 20 mile shift north would be all it takes.

[jcwxguy]

i say it has us around 12-13

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00znam_zpsb873a8c9.png

[gabel23]

i say it has us around 12-13

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00znam_zpsb873a8c9.png

Man that is a sharp cut off, I hate these types of storms! Congrats to those of you in Lincoln you win again, I'm on the short end; tale of this winter for me.

[Sven]

Interesting folks we are 24 hours out and nam continues to increase and not back off, if anything, in my opinion, it has been very consistent. Time to start giving it some credit.

[jcwxguy]

looking at the clown map, it has lincoln just outside the 12-14

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00znamclown_zpsfbf6ba22.png