February 3rd-4th Plains Winter Storm

[jcwxguy]

Thus far, through hour 39, gfs has a similar sharp cutoff near lincoln also 

[Sven]

Maps JC?

[jcwxguy]

Maps JC?

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/00zgfs_zps775a8af4.png

[Sven]

Solid

[LincWeath]

Man that is a sharp cut off, I hate these types of storms! Congrats to those of you in Lincoln you win again, I'm on the short end; tale of this winter for me.

I def. wouldn't say congrats Lincoln u won again. We haven't won all year and this may be our one storm

[gabel23]

I def. wouldn't say congrats Lincoln u won again. We haven't won all year and this may be our one storm

In terms of the snow we have had this year and it isn't much, I would say you have won for this part of the state. Ever snow we have had it's been the same story for me, a brush by I have seen half the amounts every time from what Lincoln received. I'm not complaining just not my year...

[gabel23]

If it wasn't for dry air and that hp to the north of us we wouldn't have to worry about such a sharpe cut off in the precip. It won't take much for things to change for everybody; this will literally come down to the day of the event to play out.

[DominicR]

My thinking is a band of 6-10 inches right through Lincoln-Omaha and with some 8-14 amounts furthur SE ecp along border into a good chunk of E KS. SW IA looks solid on that 6-10 band to but more advisory type as you head towards DSM.

[Sven]

My thinking is a band of 6-10 inches right through Lincoln-Omaha and with some 8-14 amounts furthur SE ecp along border into a good chunk of E KS. SW IA looks solid on that 6-10 band to but more advisory type as you head towards DSM.

Have I mentioned how much I love you lately...?

[Sludge]

So KETV Randy in Omaha says, 3-6 and dry slot. 

 

Basically story of Omaha, like a lot. LOL 

[OmahaBubble]

So KETV Randy in Omaha says, 3-6 and dry slot. 

 

Basically story of Omaha, like a lot. LOL 

 

Dry air… not dry slot

[DominicR]

So KETV Randy in Omaha says, 3-6 and dry slot. 

 

Basically story of Omaha, like a lot. LOL 

 

Dry-slot? I think northern burbs yeah dry air but city south should reach 6+

[WeatherFanOMA]

I'm happy with six! Wouldn't say were out of the woods yet, with that cutoff so close it wouldn't take much of a shift to take us out of the running!

[LincWeath]

If it wasn't for dry air and that hp to the north of us we wouldn't have to worry about such a sharpe cut off in the precip. It won't take much for things to change for everybody; this will literally come down to the day of the event to play out.

I agree Gabel. This year has been bad for you guys. Really for this entire area but yes Lincoln has probably gotten the best snows out of everywhere in the state minus Nebraska city and Auburn. Those guys are right at average, same with Valentine. Hope you guys can get at least a few inches out of this. Guess time will tell and hope we can put blades on the ground tomorrow night.

[Jaycee]

Yeah Gabel, I feel really bad you're missing out on this for the most part. I'd love to see a NW shift so you could clock in on some good totals. Crossing my fingers for you bro.

[OmahaBubble]

My thinking is a band of 6-10 inches right through Lincoln-Omaha and with some 8-14 amounts furthur SE ecp along border into a good chunk of E KS. SW IA looks solid on that 6-10 band to but more advisory type as you head towards DSM.

Where do you see this at?

[gabel23]

Yeah Gabel, I feel really bad you're missing out on this for the most part. I'd love to see a NW shift so you could clock in on some good totals. Crossing my fingers for you bro.

 

I agree Gabel. This year has been bad for you guys. Really for this entire area but yes Lincoln has probably gotten the best snows out of everywhere in the state minus Nebraska city and Auburn. Those guys are right at average, same with Valentine. Hope you guys can get at least a few inches out of this. Guess time will tell and hope we can put blades on the ground tomorrow night.

Thx guys, don't get me wrong I would be fine with 2-4 and you guys 6-10. Just please no shift to the south east and take all of us out of it! I'll take what I get and hopefully by winters end we get a Colorado low that clobbers the entire state.

[DominicR]

Guys, can you add your location if you don't mine (if you have not done so already)?

[FarmerRick]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oax/wx/File.png

[Sludge]

Dry Slot dry air either way pretty much normal for Omaha. 

 

Besides I watched the weather after the Super Bowl so my air and slots can be forgiven. 

 

lol

 

[Sven]

Final calls boys?

[jcwxguy]

man, its such a close call for lincoln, but nam still has 6-8" for lincoln

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12znam_zpscf781754.png

[Sven]

Local mets continue to downplay.

[jcwxguy]

im going with 4-8 here in lincoln, 3-7 in omaha 

[Sven]

Wonder if Omaha will get a wsw..?

[jcwxguy]

Wonder if Omaha will get a wsw..?

im thinking advisory, but with a possibility (if system goes slightly farther north), of a warning 

[thomas9824]

Hope to see at least 8 inches in Kansas City

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12znamclown_zpsc1086de0.png

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/12zgfs_zpsb7ac9a8e.png

 

looks like lincoln is in the 5.5 to 6 inch area 

[Jack Frost]

With the cold front pushing south during the event the dry air will win out! I'm going with 4.3 inches in Lincoln.

[jcwxguy]

sticking with my forecast farther up on this page unless Euro is dry again (was not pretty last night 00z )

[Jack Frost]

WSW will be down graded to a WWA with the afternoon Update!

[Sven]

If you understood the meteorological factors, raw model data, and deformation bands I may give your opinion some credit.

[FarmerRick]

If you understood the meteorological factors, raw model data, and deformation bands I may give your opinion some credit.

 

http://static2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130711132208/mk_/images/2/25/Anchorman_well_that_escalated_quickly_966.jpg

[SWIAWX]

12z GFS/NAM a touch drier ahead of the system tonight. Ratios should be between 14:1 and 16:1 due to temps in between 15 and 20F throughout. If I were to guess, I'd say about 3-6 inches in Omaha with locally heavier amounts and maybe 5-8 inches in Lincoln where the heavier bands will set up initially later tonight with lesser amounts the further north you go and greater amounts the further south you go. So likely advisory snows for Omaha and Lincoln given the 24 hour period of snowfall, and Winter Storm Warnings for far southern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northwest Missouri.

[joecoal]

this is going to kick a** in NE KS...can't wait

[Jaycee]

Yeah you are. I think we'll do well in Lincoln too. I bet we'll get an advisory and people around here will freak out. However, I think we will end up with 6-10" total in and around the city. I wouldn't be surprised if banding ends up further north, or further south, hence the broad totals. It really could go either way given that we are literally on the edge of the heavy stuff especially here in downtown. I hope models are wrong and this banding sets up further north, generally models can't pinpoint exactly where they setup, so it's time to just check the radar and HRRR from this point. Going to be a fun one, hopefully. Hope for the best for everyone on this forum!

[Andrew NE]

Well said, it may not be the big one that everyone has wanted, but it will be nice to finally get something more than an inch or two.  There is still some hope for this weekend to possibly add a couple inches as well.

[Sven]

Lol at the fact they went for WWA for all counties except those who border Kansas, ignorant.