Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[BigDizBliz420]

you can tell heights are lower further east already on the 12z GFS, it's going to trend south again like 6z

[GDR]

Ok then don't freak out when it weakens and pushes south.

[Maxim]

Unbelievable how stupid some people can be.

[GDR]

I'm with you BDB! Trends will not be our friends.

[Money]

This forum has gone to with all these trolls in here

[Madtown]

Snow showers at best imby

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This forum has gone to s**t with all these trolls in here

 

We're trolls because we're jaded and pessimistic due to seasonal trends?

[BigDizBliz420]

GFS way south

 

probably going to be nothing for people outside southern IN/IL/OH

[Money]

We're trolls because we're jaded and pessimistic due to seasonal trends?

 

Not you, talking about Blitz, and GDR who are only on here when the models look bad. 

[BigDizBliz420]

Not you, talking about Blitz, and GDR who are only on here when the models look bad. 

 

 

i love snow!

[Snowlover76]

I would be happy with 1-2" at this point. Anything after that is bonus to me. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Not you, talking about Blitz, and GDR who are only on here when the models look bad. 

 

Blizz and GDR are on here at times when things are looking good as well.  I don't blame them.

[gosaints]

We're trolls because we're jaded and pessimistic due to seasonal trends?

To be fair there may be some trolls.  That being said it entirely realistic for someone to ride a seasonal trend.  Its been a broken record..

[Money]

To be fair there may be some trolls.  That being said it entirely realistic for someone to ride a seasonal trend.  Its been a broken record..

 

Freaking out over 12z NAM at HR 84 when it's the worst model and can't predict what will happen within 24 hours are either really stupid or a troll. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Freaking out over 12z NAM at HR 84 when it's the worst model and can't predict what will happen within 24 hours are either really stupid or a troll. 

 

The NAM is normally jacked up, so if it's weak and suppressed that can be a warning sign for anything interesting.  It seems the GFS followed so our quick reaction may end up being justified.

[BigDizBliz420]

Freaking out over 12z NAM at HR 84 when it's the worst model and can't predict what will happen within 24 hours are either really stupid or a troll. 

 

 

Who wouldn't like 0z runs but 6z GFS went south and the 12z GFS is going way south. I think the 0z runs were bad data and we are seeing the models adjust towards a more realistic scenario based on the long wave trough pattern.

[BigDizBliz420]

Me thinks some people are wishcasting because they want snow! LOL!

[Snowlover76]

NWS Hastings sees something 

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
344 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO BELOIT KANSAS.

THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS...IT IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE REALIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS STARTING AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL...THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG NORTH OR
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS STRONG WIND...IF REALIZED...COULD PROMOTE PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW. PLEASE CONTINUE MONITORING
THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW AND STRONG WIND THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)

$

[gosaints]

Freaking out over 12z NAM at HR 84 when it's the worst model and can't predict what will happen within 24 hours are either really stupid or a troll. 

Just duh.  We would of been way better off going with seasonal trends the last month rather than look at any model.

[BigDizBliz420]

I think this is an East Coast pattern, maybe a silver lining if NE flow stalls as the storms rides up the coast for lake effect?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Me thinks some people are wishcasting because they want snow! LOL!

 

Tom is wishcasting I think, but most people on here who are expressing their frustration toward those of us riding seasonal trends probably just want to see it play out before punting the potential, which I understand.

[Money]

Me thinks some people are wishcasting because they want snow! LOL!

 

No one is wishcasting. Even with the awful 12z GFS it still produces 3+ inches of snow for Chicago. 

[BigDizBliz420]

3" would be nice! But I think more south trends are coming. I'm mostly going to focus on Lake Effect.

[gosaints]

No one is wishcasting. Even with the awful 12z GFS it still produces 3+ inches of snow for Chicago. 

Well so far looking like weak and progressive is the order of today?  Cant argue that right?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

No one is wishcasting. Even with the awful 12z GFS it still produces 3+ inches of snow for Chicago. 

 

But probably basically nothing for us, right?!  It's hard to picture a decent north shift, and none of these storms have stayed in place the last 72-84 hours on the models, so I'd tend to think south is the only way to go.

[winterfreak]

Seasonal trend says south and suppressed. Probably a premature thread on this one lol.

[Snowlover76]

Can someone post a map.

 

 

TIA.

[Money]

But probably basically nothing for us, right?!  It's hard to picture a decent north shift, and none of these storms have stayed in place the last 72-84 hours on the models, so I'd tend to think south is the only way to go.

 

Milwaukee gets 3-5 this run

[Maxim]

The GEFS runs look much better today than it did yesterday. Can't argue that either.

[Money]

Well so far looking like weak and progressive is the order of today?  Cant argue that right?

 

Based on one model right? NAM doesn't even count. 

[Hawkeye]

GFS is back to what it was showing yesterday morning.  The northern stream doesn't dig, so the sw conus energy/moisture doesn't get pulled up into our region.

[gosaints]

Based on one model right? NAM doesn't even count. 

So the GFS hasnt gotten weaker and more progressive?  

 

I hope its wrong but it is weaker and more progressive with no phase

[Maxim]

Literally no consistency whatsoever between the models.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The GEFS runs look much better today than it did yesterday. Can't argue that either.

 

Those were the 0z and 6z ensembles, I suspect the 12z will look similar to the NAM and GFS, with a generally weaker more progressive look.

[FV-Mike]

With everyone complaining about how the models have performed why would you put any stock in today's runs. If you think the models have been terrible wait until Friday before you come to a conclusion

[Money]

So the GFS hasnt gotten weaker and more progressive?  

 

I hope its wrong but it is weaker and more progressive with no phase

 

Yeah GFS out of GGEM/UKIE/EURO.

 

I'm not even counting the NAM because it can't get a storm right within 12-24 hours let alone 84 hrs out

[gosaints]

With everyone complaining about how the models have performed why would you put any stock in today's runs. If you think the models have been terrible wait until Friday before you come to a conclusion

Ok so you are talking about the people that were all over the 0z runs to because they will be complaining about the models as well if they are incorrect.

 

And favoring seasonal trends is different than just jumping on a model

[GDR]

Shut up, I've been on here with good models but 90 percent of the time this year models that start off good end how? So go troll with yourself!

[BrianJK]

Question:  Last year when things were going well around these parts, it was said that we are locked in a pattern and there's no breaking it.  This year as things are about as $hitty as you can get, all I hear is how the pattern is bound to break.  Why?

 

We're stuck in a boring winter rut, and until I actually see something different transpire, this is what we will be dealing with.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

With everyone complaining about how the models have performed why would you put any stock in today's runs. If you think the models have been terrible wait until Friday before you come to a conclusion

 

In that case, we shouldn't even have a storm thread out as it's pointless to talk about snowstorm potential in general this year.