Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[FV-Mike]

Ok so you are talking about the people that were all over the 0z runs to because they will be complaining about the models as well if they are incorrect.

 

And favoring seasonal trends is different than just jumping on a model

Yes, I think we can all agree that the models have not performed well this winter. Because of this, I am going to wait until 48 hours out to either see if there is a storm there or write it off. Making blanket statements based on 1 model run is crazy whether it favors a storm or not.

[BigDizBliz420]

GEM going south?

[GDR]

[BrianJK]

In that case, we shouldn't even have a storm thread out as it's pointless to talk about snowstorm potential in general this year.

 

This actually isn't too far off.  I would suggest not making any storm thread longer than 24 hours out with the way things have gone this year.

[FV-Mike]

In that case, we shouldn't even have a storm thread out as it's pointless to talk about snowstorm potential in general this year.

I would disagree. When a model shows the potential of a storm I do think it is worthy of discussion. I think some people lose the fact that if a storm is showing up 96 hours out each model run will adjust.

[gosaints]

This actually isn't too far off.  I would suggest not making any storm thread longer than 24 hours out with the way things have gone this year.

Well then really we should have forum.  No matter what people are going to disagree. Part of the deal

[Money]

GGEM still has it and it's wound up. A lot of precip breaking out at HR 84 with a L in SE Colorado and another L down in western TX

[Money]

HR 96

 

 

Iowa getting drilled 

[gosaints]

GGEM is gonna be pretty nice me thinks.  I never ride the GGEM but will probably get in trouble for that comment as well

[Snowlover76]

HR 96

 

 

Iowa getting drilled

Looks decent for Nebraska too.

[Money]

HR 108

 

 

Chicago/Milwaukee getting nailed 

[GDR]

12z GFS sucks. 1-2 inches for most

[WildWisconsinWeather]

12z GFS sucks. 1-2 inches for most

 

Who's right, you or Money?

[Money]

Last frame HR 120

 

 

So, GGEM still has a wound up storm with 6+ for most of the area.

[Yerf]

In that case, we shouldn't even have a storm thread out as it's pointless to talk about snowstorm potential in general this year.

I think the point FV is making is the same people who have been complaining about the models always being wrong, are the ones proclaiming the models are right today for a snowstorm on Sunday.

[Money]

Who's right, you or Money?

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126

[gosaints]

I think the point FV is making is the same people who have been complaining about the models always being wrong, are the ones proclaiming the models are right today for a snowstorm on Sunday.

To be clear I am not favoring these specific runs of the NAM and GFS.  I would favor seasonal trends in a set up like this..

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=126

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012812&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=126

 

This is representative of this storm, a very small 3"+ area (luckily it's in SE Wisconsin) so not much of a storm when we're talking the subforum as a whole.

[BigDizBliz420]

was reading the GGEM has poor resolution at lower latitudes and is the worst model to use for cutoffs

[Money]

was reading the GGEM has poor resolution at lower latitudes and is the worst model to use for cutoffs

 

Please shut up. God.

[Tom]

Tom is wishcasting I think, but most people on here who are expressing their frustration toward those of us riding seasonal trends probably just want to see it play out before punting the potential, which I understand.

Come on man, how can you say that when I had this storm on my radar 2 weeks ago and when it finally appears in the models I'm a wishcaster???  Even GoSaints said he hopes I score a coupe with this storm.  There is no doubt in my mind this will be a significant system esp now since we got the blocking appearing with a -AO/-NAO during this period and the jet stream reaching its seasonal peak intensity.

[Maxim]

Canadian crushes Chicago and Michigan.

[Snowlover76]

Canadian crushes Chicago and Michigan.

Can you post a snow map?

 

 

Thx

[Maxim]

Please shut up. God.

+1 annoying as hell.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Come on man, how can you say that when I had this storm on my radar 2 weeks ago and when it finally appears in the models I'm a wishcaster???  Even GoSaints said he hopes I score a coupe with this storm.  There is no doubt in my mind this will be a significant system esp now since we got the blocking appearing with a -AO/-NAO during this period and the jet stream reaching its seasonal peak intensity.

 

Well of course we hope, but you've been talking up this winter all along, hundreds of posts on a cold and snowy winter, and even when faced with crappy realities, you have stubbornly refused to believe that this is a trend.  I know why you idolize JB, but he is not a forecaster to idolize, he is full of hype, and you've learned from him.

[winterfreak]

Any maps for the GEM? Probably still too warm and north for me but just curious.

[Maxim]

Can you post a snow map?

Thx

I'm on my phone atm, so I can't post any maps. Perhaps Money or someone else can.

[Tom]

was reading the GGEM has poor resolution at lower latitudes and is the worst model to use for cutoffs

GGEM was THE first model who had this storm on it's radar back last Friday and has been very consistent with the overall pattern closing out January and opening up February.  GFS/EURO were flip flopping with a warmer look in the extended until the past couple days were they have both now gone colder.

[FV-Mike]

To be clear I am not favoring these specific runs of the NAM and GFS.  I would favor seasonal trends in a set up like this..

I think that is a very fair statement

[Tom]

Well of course we hope, but you've been talking up this winter all along, hundreds of posts on a cold and snowy winter, and even when faced with crappy realities, you have stubbornly refused to believe that this is a trend.  I know why you idolize JB, but he is not a forecaster to idolize, he is full of hype, and you've learned from him.

December was a big bust and I've admitted to it, big deal, ppl get it wrong sometimes but Winter isn't over yet so we still have time to make up for a dismal winter that has transpired thus far.

[gosaints]

Come on man, how can you say that when I had this storm on my radar 2 weeks ago and when it finally appears in the models I'm a wishcaster???  Even GoSaints said he hopes I score a coupe with this storm.  There is no doubt in my mind this will be a significant system esp now since we got the blocking appearing with a -AO/-NAO during this period and the jet stream reaching its seasonal peak intensity.

Of course I hope you score a coup

[gosaints]

I think that is a very fair statement

Believe me I am not one who wants it to happen.  I love storms more than anyone and at some point one would think we get a storm to be under modeled at this time frame.  Hopefully this is the one

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GGEM was THE first model who had this storm on it's radar back last Friday and has been very consistent with the overall pattern closing out January and opening up February.  GFS/EURO were flip flopping with a warmer look in the extended until the past couple days were they have both now gone colder.

 

It also tended to overamp systems we've had on the radar in the last month or two like the GFS and its ensembles while the Euro tended to be much less impressed.  If the Euro follows the GFS/NAM with not much of an event, it's hard for me to not consider the GEM a major outlier.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Snowlover76]

12z GGEM...

6-10". Crushed.

[gosaints]

So far today we have the Ukie and the GFS in the same camp and GGEM in the other.  Hopefully the EURO holds its ground

[Tony]

Really crazy in here on how folks are jumping ship over 1 suite of runs, especially the NAM at 84hrs???? and the Euro not in yet. Some have mentioned that 0z must have ingested bad data, did you guys think the other way around that 12z was bad data...just saying it goes both ways. This storm is still a ways off guys and models have been fluctuating all winter long and on a daily basis so bad runs are to be expected.

 

I'm not leaning towards any camp or model right now as I don't have a clue on what's going to happen. You can go with the trends of late or you can say that each storm is different and this storm might be the start of a new trend...who knows. I would love for the 0z runs to verify and the 12z Gem is pretty sweet and it would be nice for the Midwest to "finally" have a decent storm so time will tell.

 

What I have noticed on the models is that they are trending colder and stormier in the long range and maybe, just maybe February will be our start to winter!

[Money]

That's exactly what I was saying Tony. If you want to flip out after the GFS came back awful, I understand, but there were people flipping out over the 12z NAM. The worst model out of the big 5, and it doesn't even become reliable until 24 hours out most of the time. That's what set me off. 

[Tony]

This storm definitely has potential and even worst case we can still see several inches unless it really gets sheared but don't think that will happen.

[gosaints]

Quite a spread on the GEFS.  Number of favorable solutions maybe went down but I guess that would be expected after seeing the GFS