February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[FV-Mike]

1 day out of the next 10 forecasted to be above 30. After the blizzard today it looks to be locked into a cold pattern for the time being.

[Niko]

Still snowing outside here in SEMI. About to end. Everything is buried. 18.1". WOW!. Excellent storm. 

[Tony]

Clipper tomorrow night looks good for a nice refresher.

[Tom]

With the official tally at ORD of 19.3" from the Super Bowl Blizzard, the total for the season has reached 34.8"!  After the Clipper Tue/Wed, ORD may reach NORMAL for the entire season and we have 2 months of winter left.

 

Speaking of Winter, JB posted this Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago.  The model is seeing temps hit 32F or higher 1 day in Feb, maybe 5 days in March!  Obviously use this is a cold signal.  Plenty of chances for more snow over the next couple months.  It will be interesting to see how much snow ORD ends up this season....50"+???

[Tom]

12z GFS showing 2 streaks of snow this week...NE cashing in and our friends down in KS...

[Tom]

With such a deep and widespread snow cover in the region, I'm worried when the LRC's cold phase hits in about a week for a good 2-3 week period, some severe cold may be in store.  We didn't have this much snow around in Cycle #2 in early January, I think this round may be even colder, esp if the Blocking locks up.

[Snowshoe]

-7 this morning. I loved how the Wisconsin River looked this morning so I pulled over a took a pic. Winter provides some spectacular scenes.

 

[Geos]

Really made up for the snow deficit that was running. Up to 28.4" now for the season.

 

Nice picture Snowshoe. Love how the river is "steaming" in the background.

 

Couple inches tomorrow night won't be nothing! 

 

12z GFS.

 

[winterfreak]

Hooray a two inch disturbance. Temperatures look to rise back into the fifties after that. Wonder if we'll ever see that advertised cold blast this month.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a couple systems traversing the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes with high ratios snows...

[Tom]

MJO is heading towards the "warm" Phase 6 over the next 7 days, then heading towards the colder Phase 7 thereafter.  Seems like the atmosphere may be lining up towards a brutal mid month period.

[Tom]

12z Euro continues to build the Glacier this month with systems every 2-3 days across the Central CONUS.  Next weekends system is looking more and more interesting!  Feb 7-9th had been my target period about a week ago for a substantial system.  Euro has been seeing it over the last couple days.  Looks like a cold system with winds off the lake!

 

12z Euro taking baby steps in developing next weekends storm system...

 

 

There will be a fight between arctic air and warmth building into the Plains late this week into next weekend until the LRC hits its stride.

[Tom]

Chicago peep's, wouldn't ya'll like to see this come into fruition, ay???  12z Euro Snow depth over 30"+ by next weekend.  Might be possible...this pattern is ripe for snow producers.

[gosaints]

could see a nice hybrid forming at some point.  

[Tom]

could see a nice hybrid forming at some point.  

Bingo!  Euro has been getting stronger/wetter each run for the Sat/Sun system...the snow pack around here now I think will start to affect the regional climate and cool the atmosphere quite a bit.  There could be an active pattern setting up in our region.  I think we are on the verge of a Backloaded snowfall season.

[gabel23]

Bingo!  Euro has been getting stronger/wetter each run for the Sat/Sun system...the snow pack around here now I think will start to affect the regional climate and cool the atmosphere quite a bit.  There could be an active pattern setting up in our region.  I think we are on the verge of a Backloaded snowfall season.

 

What's the Euro showing for temps Tom in the long range? GFS is showing a pretty decent warm up for the central plains starting this weekend. I'm hoping its wrong, I don't want my Glacier to melt!!! 

[winterfreak]

Wow have fun Chicago. Another great winter up there lol.

[Tom]

Utilizing the East Asian Theory and the LRC, the next 3-4 weeks are going to be the Winter's worst conditions IMO.  The last 4 consecutive runs of the GFS continues an onslaught of cold/stormy systems targeting Japan.  We are now beginning the wettest part of this year's LRC and it's no surprise the Super Bowl Blizzard delivered.

 

Looking out over the next 10 days and beyond, several systems to be monitored over a large majority of our region.  We have yet to see our friend from up north, the Polar Vortex, but signals out in East Asia suggest an invasion during the Feb 15-17th period for the U.S.  Coincidentally, that is during the "heart" of this year's cold phase of the LRC.

 

What's the Euro showing for temps Tom in the long range? GFS is showing a pretty decent warm up for the central plains starting this weekend. I'm hoping its wrong, I don't want my Glacier to melt!!! 

Western NE warms up the most with the lack of snow cover next Fri/Sat.  E NE gets into the low 40's for a day or two.  The more we can build the snow pack, the less efficient any warm ups may become.

[Snowlover76]

What's the Euro showing for temps Tom in the long range? GFS is showing a pretty decent warm up for the central plains starting this weekend. I'm hoping its wrong, I don't want my Glacier to melt!!! 

Looks like it stays cold until after this weekend.  But thats also 7+ days away.  Lots can change.

[dubuque473]

Ended up at 12.8 total so for the winter I am at 38.4" Average for this point is 25" so I am pretty happy this winter.

[educatorjen]

I'm confused.  Is there more snow forecast for southeast nebraska this week? 

[clintbeed1993]

I'm confused.  Is there more snow forecast for southeast nebraska this week? 

 

It's going to end up being mostly to your west Jen but Eastern Nebraska could still get 1-2 inches.

[Snowshoe]

Funny!

Jimmy the Groundhog bites Sun Prairie mayor | News - http://t.co/enQ3exqNTG http://t.co/HJQ5udw0Fy

— Justin Conner (@kellner_gis) February 2, 2015

[Yerf]

LOT mentions this

A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH FROM CANADA LATE
TUE...WITH A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG
A NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IN LINE. THE BETTER FORCING APPEARS TO BE
WELL WEST OF THE CWFA EARLY WED...BUT EC/GFS/NAM DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIP/SNOW FOR WED. ENSEMBLES ARE DEMONSTRATING
HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIP WITH
THE BOUNDARY WED. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS
FEATURE COULD STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

 

It will be interesting to see how this develops

[jcwxguy]

It's going to end up being mostly to your west Jen but Eastern Nebraska could still get 1-2 inches.

my grid in Lincoln says 2-4 inches Wednesday 

[clintbeed1993]

my grid in Lincoln says 2-4 inches Wednesday 

 

That seems a bit high for Lincoln, models have the best forcing way out West near Kearney.

[Tom]

If you want to compare the pattern post 2015 Super Bowl Blizzard vs. 2011 GHD Blizzard, I'd say this year the pattern looks much more favorable to keep this deep snow pack around.  Back in 2011, the deep snow pack melted by mid February, this year it may not melt till sometime in March!  I'd say this year is a winner.

[Trinomial]

I don't see any hints of a storm on the models for next weekend...Am I missing something? If the Euro is showing snow depth of 30+ inches, shouldn't we be seeing storms?

[NEJeremy]

That seems a bit high for Lincoln, models have the best forcing way out West near Kearney.

The Euro is further east, the NAM in the middle, and the GFS furthest west and south. Our AFD said changes are likely with the clipper and it's path and it's going to be a narrow band. The Euro gives .3" of qpf which would probably be close to 5" for Omaha but the GFS is much lighter

[Grizzcoat]

Bingo!  Euro has been getting stronger/wetter each run for the Sat/Sun system...the snow pack around here now I think will start to affect the regional climate and cool the atmosphere quite a bit.  There could be an active pattern setting up in our region.  I think we are on the verge of a Backloaded snowfall season.

DMX mentioned the snowpack deal for the system tomorrow to mainly affect NE IA and surrounding regions--MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH

TRACK OF STORM ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MN. BUT WITH THE FAST

MOVING FLOW AND RECENT SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK OVER OUR AREA...THERE IS

SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT DUE TO A STRONGER

TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

Good times ahead!!

[Geos]

 

Funny!

Jimmy the Groundhog bites Sun Prairie mayor | News - http://t.co/enQ3exqNTG http://t.co/HJQ5udw0Fy

— Justin Conner (@kellner_gis) February 2, 2015

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

Dang! I guess he didn't want to come out into the cold today! lol

 

---

 

LOT going with 2-3" now up this way. Next thing you know it will be 3-5".

[Snowlover76]

I like around the 10th to 12th for a big Plains storm 

[Snowshoe]

18z GFS looks a little better for the next clipper

 

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

[Scott26]

After the Super Bowl Blizzard, no storm is going to look very impressive to me anymore this winter. I'm now more interested on getting the snow pack as deep as possible. Having another 6+ snowstorm would be nice, but I'm okay if it comes in 1-3 inch type events.

[Tom]

18z WRF...for the Tue/Wed Clipper...what do you think guys, should I start a Thread combining this Clipper with the one Wed/Thu???

[Tom]

18z WRF thru 60hr...nice hit out in the Plains with the Wed/Thu Clipper...temps in the mid/upper 20's should fluff this snow up.

[Snowshoe]

Pretty minor, probably doesn't need it's own thread. Let's wait until this coming weekends storm fizzles out for me. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

[jcwxguy]

18z WRF thru 60hr...nice hit out in the Plains with the Wed/Thu Clipper...temps in the mid/upper 20's should fluff this snow up.

hate to have that .50" blob over parts of lincoln with this much time left until the snow. 

[Tom]

hate to have that .50" blob over parts of lincoln with this much time left until the snow. 

These Frontogenesis snows can produce some intense banding along an arctic front.  You guys could see periods of heavy snow fall.

[winterfreak]

Looks pretty decent here as well. Maybe just maybe three or so inches.