February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

18z GFS trending towards the EURO/GGEM for this weekends system.  I will be making a Thread on this potential system.

[Tom]

Picked up 0.6" in the last hour...getting some nice fat flakes coming down now.  A good amount of nickle sized flakes.  Looks like the heaviest band might be aligning north of I-90 in NE IL.

[Geos]

Looking at the radar returns the heaviest looks to pass from Janesville to Waukegan.

 

Snowing moderately in Racine with borderline 20 dbz. Can imagine it is +SN to the south.

[Geos]

Driving conditions are worse than anything (visibility)I've seen this winter for sure. 35 minute commute was 70 minutes.

 

3.3" of snow here so far. Probably a 30:1 ratio.

[Tom]

Wow, just took a look at each of the individual 51 members of the Euro Ensembles at Hr 126 and there are some beauty's in there.  Hybrip Clipper on steroids showing many sub 998mb SLP tracking through the lower lakes.  Very interesting system.  I will be starting a thread on this potential storm system for the Sun/Mon period.

[Geos]

Really pretty outside tonight and bright out. Could easily read a book out there.

 

3.4" total for a 31:1 ratio.

 

[Tom]

Fun Facts: So far ORD has 36.4" (season avg 38") vs last year this time ORD had 48".  Could it be possible that ORD catches up to last year's snowfall to date by early next week???  The track and intensity of this weekends system will play a major role if that should be the case.

[Geos]

Tonight's snowfall officially broke past the total snow for the winter of 2011-12 (31.2") vs. now (31.8").

I was beginning to wonder if this winter would fall below that one.

[Money]

Fun Facts: So far ORD has 36.4" (season avg 38") vs last year this time ORD had 48".  Could it be possible that ORD catches up to last year's snowfall to date by early next week???  The track and intensity of this weekends system will play a major role if that should be the case.

 

GFS coming in pretty nice already.. I think this is the one to watch 

[Money]

0z GFS with 4-6 from MKE up to GB and west into C. Minnesota 

[Money]

Picked up about 2.4 here or so on the clipper.

 

7.4 the last 3-4 days. 

[Tom]

Seems like most of us in the Lakes/Midwest/Plains are racking up seasonal totals rather quickly.  Will be interesting when this winter is over who is the winner and where we all end up for the season.

[Snowshoe]

A fluffy inch yesterday evening. It was a beautiful snow globe type snow. The fresh snow should help temps crash tonight. Would probably be colder if not for light winds and some clouds.

 

Still hopeful about the pattern. Models appear to be keeping the western ridge further west in the long term and picking up on the cold signals Tom and others have talked about. Maybe I'll cash in this weekend with a "surprise" system like Nebraska is today. Plenty of wildcards in NW flow patterns.

[winterfreak]

Sixties again this weekend. At this rate I'll be tracking thunderstorms by mid month.

[gosaints]

Looks like quite the tempo gradient setting up from the western minnesota border to the great lakes..

[Tom]

Interesting post from JB on Wx Bell going forward into Feb/Mar/Apr utilizing SST Analogs...Winter doesn't seem it will want to let go this year as we head into Spring.  This model shows it centering Winter into the Central CONUS delivering cold/wet conditions.  The back loaded snowy winter should continue.

[Snowlover76]

I hear the weeklies after 2/15 look aweseme for the Plains. I doubt they materialize though.

[Tom]

I hear the weeklies after 2/15 look aweseme for the Plains. I doubt they materialize though.

Wait till the LRC's cold phase begins to hit its stride towards the end of next week.  I have a feeling it is going to be a wild ride for those out there in the Plains.  The amount of brutal cold air loading up in Canada is bound to make a presence into the central CONUS.  Interesting times ahead.

[Snowlover76]

Wait till the LRC's cold phase begins to hit its stride towards the end of next week.  I have a feeling it is going to be a wild ride for those out there in the Plains.  The amount of brutal cold air loading up in Canada is bound to make a presence into the central CONUS.  Interesting times ahead.

I hope it turns out, but I have my doubts.  Forecast looks warm for next week. 

[Maxim]

Sixties again this weekend. At this rate I'll be tracking thunderstorms by mid month.

Yeah, that ridge is not going to break down any time soon. Looks like we'll be just east of it though for the majority of the month.

[Tom]

I hope it turns out, but I have my doubts.  Forecast looks warm for next week. 

Watching models is ok, but understanding the LRC and pattern recognition is a much better tool in this Winter season for the long range.

[Snowlover76]

Yeah, that ridge is not going to break down any time soon. Looks like we'll be just east of it though for the majority of the month.

The ridge is what I fear.  Its very stubborn this winter. 

[gosaints]

quite  a mild look to the EURO.  Who knows if its right...

[Snowlover76]

quite a mild look to the EURO. Who knows if its right...

That's my fear. And i don't know much about the LRC.

[jcwxguy]

quite  a mild look to the EURO.  Who knows if its right...

the euro is not doing very well lately

[gosaints]

the euro is not doing very well lately

GFS through 180 is mild as well especially western areas

[Maxim]

Lol, Denver is stuck in the 20s today, but will be in the 60s tomorrow and near 70 by Friday.

[Tom]

Interesting Facts from LOT:

 

 

Impressive Chicago Snow Stats for the Past Week

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL419 PM CST WED FEB 4 2015 /519 PM EST WED FEB 4 2015/...SOME IMPRESSIVE CHICAGO SNOW STATS FOR THE PAST WEEK...**CHICAGO LIKELY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL SNOW SEASON AFTER SLOW START**CHICAGO-O`HARE PICKED UP 0.3 INCHES OF SNOW ON FEBRUARY 4TH. THISBRINGS THE 2014-2015 SNOWFALL SEASON (FALL-SPRING) SNOW TOTAL ATO`HARE TO 36.7 INCHES. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...36.7 INCHES IS THENORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE ENTIRE SNOWFALL SEASON IN CHICAGO FOR THE1981-2010 CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD.THEREFORE...AFTER NOT HAVING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW THIS PAST DECEMBERFOR ONLY THE THIRD TIME ON RECORD...CHICAGO IS VERY LIKELY TO HAVEAN ABOVE NORMAL 2014-15 SNOWFALL SEASON. NOT ONLY DID THE WINTERSTORM OF JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 2 HELP TOWARD THIS...BUT OVER HALF OFTHE PAST 32 DAYS...17 IN FACT...HAVE HAD MEASURABLE SNOW.**ALREADY THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IN CHICAGO**WITH 19.9 INCHES THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH INCLUDING THE 0.3 INCHESTHAT FELL TODAY...THIS FEBRUARY IS ALREADY THE 10TH SNOWIESTFEBRUARY ON RECORD IN CHICAGO.RANK   SNOWFALL      YEAR-------------------------1.     29.0 IN.      20112.     27.8 IN.      18963.     26.2 IN.      19944.     22.6 IN.      19005.     22.5 IN.      2010       22.5 IN.      19677.     21.8 IN.      20088.     21.1 IN.      19019.     20.3 IN.      200710.    19.9 IN.      2015** THROUGH FEBRUARY 4 2015**8TH SNOWIEST WEEK ON RECORD IN CHICAGO**FROM JANUARY 29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH...CHICAGO RECEIVED 21.3INCHES OF SNOW. THIS MADE IT THE 8TH SNOWIEST WEEK ON RECORD INTHE CITY.RANK   SNOWFALL             WEEK-------------------------------------------1.     29.9 IN.      JAN 25-FEB 1 19672.     26.0 IN.      FEB 1-7 20113.     25.6 IN.      JAN 11-17 19794.     24.8 IN.      JAN 6-12 19185.     23.6 IN.      JAN 1-7 19996.     23.2 IN.      DEC 14-20 19517.     23.1 IN.      DEC 30 2013-JAN 5 20148.     21.3 IN.      JAN 29-FEB 4 20159.     20.9 IN.      MAR 28-APR 3 192610.    20.4 IN.      DEC 13-19 1973

[Maxim]

And here's the latest "guess" by Accuweather 

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02031945_spring-2015-highlights-hd-jillian.jpg

[tim the weatherman]

Chicago peep's, wouldn't ya'll like to see this come into fruition, ay???  12z Euro Snow depth over 30"+ by next weekend.  Might be possible...this pattern is ripe for snow producers.

but i was wondering if this still holds.

[james1976]

Chicago only averages 36.7" a season?

[jcwxguy]

currently -15 in Lincoln, NE  right now

[dubuque473]

Chicago only averages 36.7" a season?

I was surprised by that also.

[Tom]

GFS slowly correcting the trough next week back farther west around the 12th and coming in line with the LRC's cold phase.  Both Euro/GFS still showing some high latitude blocking.  Hopefully we can get some of these systems to slow/dig and become a decent snow producer.

[gosaints]

Holy the new england is going to be absolutely buried

[Tom]

Holy the new england is going to be absolutely buried

I took a late night walk around my neighborhood last night through our "mini" tunnels and I thought about how it must look like out in Boston where they had about 50" of snow over the last 12 days or so.  It must look amazing out there.

[Snowlover76]

I took a late night walk around my neighborhood last night through our "mini" tunnels and I thought about how it must look like out in Boston where they had about 50" of snow over the last 12 days or so.  It must look amazing out there.

Gonna be fun in the spring when all of that melts at once. 

[Tom]

CFSv2 starting to look like the new JMA weeklies that came in this morning which is bringing back the cold/storminess into the Central CONUS by mid month.

[Snowlover76]

GFS slowly correcting the trough next week back farther west around the 12th and coming in line with the LRC's cold phase.  Both Euro/GFS still showing some high latitude blocking.  Hopefully we can get some of these systems to slow/dig and become a decent snow producer.

Is the 12z Euro in agreement? 

[Maxim]

Can't wait for the weekend warm-up to help melt some of this snow. Probably won't do much to it though.