February 2015 PNW Discussion

[BLI snowman]

Let's see how many new ways the region can find to blowtorch this month!

[MikeInEverett]

Oh boy! Another exciting month of the 2014-2015 winter has begun! Hopefully we can actually get something in the mid-late part of the month, because the first half looks like a snooze-fest. Just like this whole winter so far.

[snow_wizard]

I don't know if I can take another near record warm month. It's getting very tiresome.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a quietish month.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=67950  (post no. 50)

Generally related.  http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/755-january-2015-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=67931

[TT-SEA]

I don't know if I can take another near record warm month. It's getting very tiresome.

 

You will have to take what comes.  

 

Something tells me it might end up pretty warm.    

[stuffradio]

28 days until meteorological spring!

[TT-SEA]

28 days until meteorological spring!

 

 

This might end up like 2004-05. 

 

It was crazy bad for the mountains most of that winter... and the warmth went through the first half of March.    And then the mountains were buried in snow.

[Parksvillewx]

Quite the spread in the PNA forecast.

 

[MossMan]

This might end up like 2004-05.

 

It was crazy bad for the mountains most of that winter... and the warmth went through the first half of March. And then the mountains were buried in snow.

I was jetsking in mid Febuary that year!

[HighlandExperience]

This might end up like 2004-05. 

 

It was crazy bad for the mountains most of that winter... and the warmth went through the first half of March.    And then the mountains were buried in snow.

 

Yes I remember that year very well. It was weird because the mountains got buried with snow in early Spring. 

[snow_wizard]

Quite the spread in the PNA forecast.

 

pnafeb1.jpg

Pretty sad the PNA is negative now and we have absolutely nothing to show for it.

[snow_wizard]

I was jetsking in mid Febuary that year!

The lows were in the mid 20s at that time. That water must have been awfully cold.

[snow_wizard]

After a couple of slightly more interesting runs the GFS is back to showing pure garbage again.

[ClarkCountyChill]

After a couple of slightly more interesting runs the GFS is back to showing pure garbage again.

I wouldn't qualify a slight dip in 850s at 300+ hours as "interesting".

 

Just pointless noise. I've never understood why you even take notice of that sort of thing.

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't qualify a slight dip in 850s at 300+ hours as "interesting".

 

Just pointless noise. I've never understood why you even take notice of the sort of thing.

There were a few runs hinting at rising heights over the GOA. I was simply speaking in general terms. I also never said I had any strong feeling it was going to happen.

[ClarkCountyChill]

There were a few runs hinting at rising heights over the GOA. I was simply speaking in general terms. I also never said I had any strong feeling it was going to happen.

True. Fair enough. I think I'm just tired of all of the dangling carrots. Seems like it would take an act of God and/or Congress to get anything decent within resolution change on the models these days.

[HighlandExperience]

After a couple of slightly more interesting runs the GFS is back to showing pure garbage again.

 

I think we have to accept this winter is over for the lowlands. The only thing we can hope for at this point is low snow levels and mountain snow. 

[MossMan]

Quite the spread in the PNA forecast.

 

pnafeb1.jpg

Perhaps that single tanked member will end up correct, that might be enough to retrograde the ridge!

 

Go Hawks!

[snow_wizard]

I think we have to accept this winter is over for the lowlands. The only thing we can hope for at this point is low snow levels and mountain snow.

I pretty much agree. Even that is looking like a tall order right now.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing to have three foggy dry Januaries in a row. At my location all three had 4 inches and change for precip and each one has grown progressively warmer. 2013 was actually rather cold.

[MossMan]

The lows were in the mid 20s at that time. That water must have been awfully cold.

The days were quite mild however and I stayed mostly dry since my jetski is of the sit down variety.

[ClarkCountyChill]

I pretty much agree. Even that is looking like a tall order right now.

It's getting whacky.

[snow_wizard]

Perhaps that single tanked member will end up correct, that might be enough to retrograde the ridge!

 

Go Hawks!

Maybe we can pay the CPC to make a graph which shows all of the members tanked and the atmosphere will be forced to comply.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Well, if January can hit 70 for certain locations, perhaps an 80 degree day is in the cards for February. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Well, if January can hit 70 for certain locations, perhaps an 80 degree day is in the cards for February.

Maybe for Horse Creek RAWS or some high elevation site down in SW Oregon. Not gonna happen in the lowlands, though.

 

Although 70 at sea level becomes a possibility after mid-Feb. I don't think we've seen that in the western lowlands since the 90s.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty sure that late 1939 through much of 1941 is the only period to equal the period of nearly endless torching we have seen now. Even some of the all time greats like 1934, 1958, and 1991-92 had some cool months to break it up.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Maybe for Horse Creek RAWS or some high elevation site down in SW Oregon. Not gonna happen in the lowlands, though.

 

Although 70 at sea level becomes a possibility after mid-Feb. I don't think we've seen that in the western lowlands since the 90s.

 

In any normal year, I would totally agree with you--and as a general proposition, I do now.  However, this year is anything but normal.  Let's see what the ground hog says about it tomorrow.

[ClarkCountyChill]

I'm pretty sure that late 1939 through much of 1941 is the only period to equal the period of nearly endless torching we have seen now. Even some of the all time greats like 1934, 1958, and 1991-92 had some cool months to break it up.

 

Yup. Since last February the "coolest" we've been able to pull off is a near-average June and November.

 

What was the winter of 1941-42 like, on the back end of the multi-year torch?

[ClarkCountyChill]

In any normal year, I would totally agree with you--and as a general proposition, I do now.  However, this year is anything but normal.  Let's see what the ground hog says about it tomorrow.

 

I don't think 80 in the western lowlands is even mechanically possible in February. Even the 80 at PDX on March 16th, 1947 was an incredible fluke within the period of record.

 

Doesn't matter how insanely warm the airmass is. The boundary layer won't allow for such ridiculousness at that point.

[snow_wizard]

Yup. Since last February the "coolest" we've been able to pull off is a near-average June and November.

 

What was the winter of 1941-42 like, on the back end of the multi-year torch?

1941-42 had a decent cold snap late Dec through early Jan and 1942-43 was quite cold.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think 80 in the western lowlands is even mechanically possible in February. Even the 80 at PDX on March 16th, 1947 was an incredible fluke within the period of record.

 

Doesn't matter how insanely warm the airmass is. The boundary layer won't allow for such ridiculousness at that point.

I think Seattle hit the low 80s rather early in the month of March in 1892 or thereabouts. That was an absolute freak for sure.

 

EDIT: 81 on March 11, 1892

[ClarkCountyChill]

I think Seattle hit the low 80s rather early in the month of March in 1892 or thereabouts. That was an absolute freak for sure.

 

EDIT: 81 on March 11, 1892

 

Yup, about the earliest that kind of thing can happen near sea-level.

 

Obviously a different story for the Cascade Foothills and warmth-favored spots on the east side (Pendleton, Walla Walla).

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the PNA graph it's interesting to note the PNA has gone minus right around the first of the month for three consecutive months now. Late this month or early March will probably be our next window of opportunity. Pretty lame this round of minus PNA was only able to bring below normal temps with the aid of an inversion, although some cold air has managed to bleed into far eastern WA from the Arctic air mass over Montana.

[Deweydog]

That is a ginormous swath of continuous WSW's across the eastern half of the country.  Eastern Nebraska through Maine.    

 

#climatechange

[snow_wizard]

That is a ginormous swath of continuous WSW's across the eastern half of the country.  Eastern Nebraska through Maine.    

 

#climatechange

#itsnotfair

[Deweydog]

#itsnotfair

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CJ4ykWuztU

 

Edit:  Watch for the young President Obama at 6:28 as he appears to be having an allergic reaction to shellfish.  

[TT-SEA]

#itsnotfair

 

 

You are so obsessed... you realize most people don't care at all.  And many of the people being impacted by cold and snow would rather have it warmer.  

[Deweydog]

You are so obsessed... you realize most people don't care at all.  And many of the people being impacted by cold and snow would rather have it warmer.  

 

You have to see how stupidly ironic you saying this is.  

[ClarkCountyChill]

As of tomorrow it will have been a month since my last sub-32 temp out here.

 

Have had a few 33 degree mornings but wind and low clouds during good radiational cooling setups for the valleys have really kept things up in this part of the Gorge.