February 2015 PNW Discussion

[bainbridgekid]

We have the windows open and the heat turned off in our apartment today.

 

Yet another 60+ degree day.

[Deweydog]

18z is running.  

[psnow]

Nuclear is highly viable. We should invest more in it.

Fukushima

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro was the most interesting run in awhile. As mentioned by others, all 12z models shifted the blocking ridge west, and the ensembles support this to an extent as well. If nothing else, it's looking like a return to significant -EPO is likely.

[Front Ranger]

It sucks we missed out on much snow this winter. But I have actually enjoyed this winter more than most winters. There have been a lot fewer rainy days and the days it rained it really has rained. I haven't had to put all the layers of clothes on the kids either because it's been so mild.

 

Yeah, the comments about all the rain from some were kinda strange, considering all the dry days in January, and only a handful of days with a lot of rain. At SEA, 16 days in January had no measurable precip.

 

Obviously, February has gotten off to a very soggy start, though. As I mentioned a few days ago, most locations up and down the West Coast will have seen more rain in the first 7-10 days of February than they had seen in the past 5 weeks. And for those in CA, way more.

[bainbridgekid]

The 12z GFS drops 850mb temps to -26 and 491 thicknesses next weekend in Boston. Pretty much top tier.

 

One of my friends just moved out there a month ago. Just in time for one of their coldest/snowiest periods ever. They are going to get close to another foot in the next 24 hours and already have almost 2 feet on the ground.

 

Nice to see some colder air sneak into the NW on the Euro.

[Deweydog]

The 12z GFS drops 850mb temps to -26 and 491 thicknesses next weekend in Boston. Pretty much top tier.

 

One of my friends just moved out there a month ago. Just in time for one of their coldest/snowiest periods ever. They are going to get close to another foot in the next 24 hours and already have almost 2 feet on the ground.

 

Nice to see some colder air sneak into the NW on the Euro.

A few runs have had them into the 480's.

[Phil]

The 12z GFS drops 850mb temps to -26 and 491 thicknesses next weekend in Boston. Pretty much top tier.

 

One of my friends just moved out there a month ago. Just in time for one of their coldest/snowiest periods ever. They are going to get close to another foot in the next 24 hours and already have almost 2 feet on the ground.

 

Nice to see some colder air sneak into the NW on the Euro.

It's insane what they're getting up there. Some places in Maine have had over 80" of snow in the last 4-5 weeks, with a lot more coming. I'm just getting table scraps down here..I've been screwed by the jet all winter.

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement around day 7 on the GFS and ECMWF today. We might at least scrape together a few chilly days.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GFS drops 850mb temps to -26 and 491 thicknesses next weekend in Boston. Pretty much top tier.

 

One of my friends just moved out there a month ago. Just in time for one of their coldest/snowiest periods ever. They are going to get close to another foot in the next 24 hours and already have almost 2 feet on the ground.

 

Nice to see some colder air sneak into the NW on the Euro.

Pretty clear we have runaway global warming right because Jesse's small part of the planet has been under a ridge lately.

 

#noperspective

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GFS drops 850mb temps to -26 and 491 thicknesses next weekend in Boston. Pretty much top tier.

 

One of my friends just moved out there a month ago. Just in time for one of their coldest/snowiest periods ever. They are going to get close to another foot in the next 24 hours and already have almost 2 feet on the ground.

 

Nice to see some colder air sneak into the NW on the Euro.

Pretty clear we have runaway global warming right because Jesse's small part of the planet has been under a ridge lately.

 

#noperspective

[Front Ranger]

18z continues the theme from the 12z runs of getting things chilly in the PNW with northerly flow early next week.

[bainbridgekid]

A few runs have had them into the 480's.

Yeah the 00z had the 486 thickness line into Northern MA.

 

We'd be talking highs around 0 and lows near Boston's all-time record of -18.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2015020800_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_RH_180.gif

[bainbridgekid]

18z continues the theme from the 12z runs of getting things chilly in the PNW with northerly flow early next week.

For people who prefer pretty maps.

 

Things would have to keep trending West for us to get anything more than a slightly chilly continental airmass, but that's worlds better than anything we've had lately.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150208/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s.gif

[Front Ranger]

For people who prefer pretty maps.

 

Things would have to keep trending West for us to get anything more than a slightly chilly continental airmass, but that's worlds better than anything we've had lately.

 

 

And after that it actually gets close to a lowland snow setup, though temps are a bit too warm. A ways out, but at least there's something to keep an eye on.

[stuffradio]

Definitely seems early this year.

It's not early.

[Deweydog]

Funny...

 

A really poor man's version of February 2014.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z drops heights to 534 over SEA around day 10 with northerly flow aloft. Almost getting interesting.

[stuffradio]

Even the most vocal and famous environmentalists are hypocritical in their way of living. They have big houses, fleets of cars, and fly everywhere. There is something new called technology which lets them do their talks online instead of spewing the stuff in the air they are so against. These G20 summits or whatever it is they are called where the leaders all come together all spew lots of carbon emissions too. There is no need to waste all this time, money and energy with the technology we have. It also costs taxpayers of each country millions of dollars to host these events.

[Deweydog]

It's not early.

I heard though that by 2100 our mid summer sunsets will be approaching midnight unless we all rapidly commit to wearing Rolex watches.

[BLI snowman]

And after that it actually gets close to a lowland snow setup, though temps are a bit too warm. A ways out, but at least there's something to keep an eye on.

 

February 2003 repeat!

[stuffradio]

I heard though that by 2100 our mid summer sunsets will be approaching midnight unless we all rapidly commit to wearing Rolex watches.

I just opened a savings account to save up for one!

[stuffradio]

February 2003 repeat!

March 2003 was the big snow event here. There was over a foot in Abbotsford. I remember it well. What about in Bellingham?

[BLI snowman]

March 2003 was the big snow event here. There was over a foot in Abbotsford. I remember it well. What about in Bellingham?

 

You're actually thinking of March 2002, which was an awesome month. 

 

March 2003 did have a Fraser River outflow induced snow event on the 7th/8th, though. 1-2" for Bellingham and a bit more up there. 

[Bryant]

For people who prefer pretty maps.

 

Things would have to keep trending West for us to get anything more than a slightly chilly continental airmass, but that's worlds better than anything we've had lately.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150208/18/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s.gif

Right on schedule

[richard mann]

So before I pull this forum over for off topic extremes ....

Good luck Fred.

 

 "Global Warming", having mis-appropriately superseded the more basic environmental problem/s looming much more, over us, ... 

 

Solution to it of course, .... Actual north and south "poles" ….

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/526-global-warming/?p=64713

 

.. Everyone .. goes "solar", leaves their refrigerator doors open 18 hours a day.  .. Paint all rooftops beige. 

 

$ .. I hold to the basic idea, that if you're, as in "you" are", not doing everything that you know is right and that you can more realistically, fitting with more environmentally sound thinking, then you're part of the problem.  (Don't really care about much more than your own comfort and "well-being".)

 

— Channel this up to a more "societal" level, and what'd you have. ?

[richard mann]

Nice improvement around day 7 on the GFS and ECMWF today. We might at least scrape together a few chilly days.

.. Good to hear.

[DareDuck]

No one want to talk about the storms rolling up the valley? Saw several flashes of lightning and heavy rain for about 20 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No one want to talk about the storms rolling up the valley? Saw several flashes of lightning and heavy rain for about 20 minutes

Pretty impressive. Absolutely pouring here.

[FroYoBro]

Sounds like there are some pretty high winds and thunder with this squall like line. 

[Jesse]

Thunder, lightning and heavy rain in Tigard.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z continues to advertise a much cooler pattern. Nothing Earth shattering (at least for now) but it looks nice. It certainly represents a pretty big pattern change.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z continues to advertise a much cooler pattern. Nothing Earth shattering (at least for now) but it looks nice. It certainly represents a pretty big pattern change.

 

 

For a couple days... 850mb temps might get down to 0C,

 

Then back to warm rain by the end of next week.   

[Deweydog]

The 0z continues to advertise a much cooler pattern. Nothing Earth shattering (at least for now) but it looks nice. It certainly represents a pretty big pattern change.

Could be our fourth coldest pattern of the winter.

[Front Ranger]

For a couple days... 850mb temps might get down to 0C,

 

Then back to warm rain by the end of next week.   

 

Way too early to say.

[TT-SEA]

Way too early to say.

 

 

Probably... but its a good bet it will be glancing shot so it would make sense for SW flow to come back later next week.

[richard mann]

Probably... but its a good bet it will be glancing shot so it would make sense for SW flow to come back later next week.

 

You're just repeating what you'd say more initially. Certainly not much more. 

 

What are the dynamics that you're considering. ?  More specific elements, with more specific reasoning. 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice light show mainly off to the east, but plenty close for some good thunder.  It's strange to experience northerly outflow winds from a thunderstorm in February at 10 PM!

[Parksvillewx]

 

 

[stuffradio]

ba.jpg

It would be nice to have another dry stretch here (not down south) so I can get some more drainage fixed, and then next winter have a classic Winter with feet upon meters of snow. (Maybe have the snow melt off of the roof as it hits the roof so the roofs don't collapse though!)