February 2015 PNW Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Still hoping for a rainy March so we can get a better April/May?

 

I know you want snow in the Mountains, but this Winter certainly seems like an example of how "the other shoe must drop" theory of climate is largely BS.

I would gladly sacrifice all of March to get the mountains back in shape. By April I want real spring. But it's hard not to be captivated by the beauty right now with everything blooming and the sunshine and mountains all so clearly visible.

 

And this is an unusual situation this year in terms of ying and yang and stormy cycles. Pretty soon I am going to be all about persistence until November.

[BLI snowman]

Still hoping for a rainy March so we can get a better April/May?

 

I know you want snow in the Mountains, but this Winter certainly seems like an example of how "the other shoe must drop" theory of climate is largely BS.

 

Well, we can let 2015-16 and 2016-17 be the judge of that 

 

I'd expect something pretty radical in one of the next two winters. Likely not as historically good as this winter has been poor, but some semblance of balance nonetheless.

[bainbridgekid]

Well, we can let 2015-16 and 2016-17 be the judge of that 

 

I'd expect something pretty radical in one of the next two winters. Likely not as historically good as this winter has been poor, but some semblance of balance nonetheless.

I'd expect SOMETHING pretty darn good in the next two Winters as well. Not because this Winter sucked, but just because in any two Winters there will probably be something pretty good.

 

I just have never seen any evidence at all that climate has a natural tendency to swing around to makeup for the extremes of the past. Of course there are plenty of anecdotes, but I would be very surprised if a systematic study revealed it to be true.

 

Little doubt the next two Winters will be better than this one though, because that is how extreme outliers work.

[richard mann]

-

.. In my view, where looking more ahead at years / winter-seasons future, "next" to more subsequent years, the main element is whether or not the greater Canadian (Shield) NE lets loose its stronger grip on main and more primary cold-stores. This idea set with that of Northern Asian along with of course Alaska and areas more poleward nearer upstream working out to be more where main cold is focused. 

[Front Ranger]

Thank you.

 

Even a relatively ignorant amateur such as myself knows that all this talk of the weather “owing” us “payback” for all the warm, dry conditions lately is a gambler’s fantasy.  It’s exactly the same as a gambler being convinced that he’s "owed payback” for a run of bad luck.

 

There’s a saying:  “the dice have no memory.”  The odds of rolling a seven are exactly the same each time no matter what has happened previously.  It’s why casino owners make millions.  They profit on the gambler’s irrational investment in the concept of luck being governed by some kind of scales of justice.

 

Similarly, all things being equal (i.e., the influence of large-scale mechanisms, the interactions of which we don’t seem to understand quite well enough yet to make them all that reliable as predictors), the chances of having a good or a bad winter next year are exactly the same no matter what has happened previously.

 

We've had lengthy conversations about this exact line of thinking on here before. You're absolutely right. Mother Nature has no memory, and what happens is not dictated by the law of averages, or by what has previously occurred.

 

However, we can use past history as a guide to what is most likely to happen again in the future...to a certain degree.

[TT-SEA]

Issaquah this afternoon...

 

[Jesse]

Sometimes things defy logic and just work out!  Anything to help bridge the gap between when it can get fairly pleasant and when it should get fairly pleasant is AOK!  

 

You're a god D**n genius, Gump!  Your curmudgeony mojo is working!

 

Yup, for a minute there I thought the historically low Cascade snowpack might get a March miracle. Bullet dodged!

[Skagit Weather]

According to Scott Sistek, Seattle just set record warmest February. 3rd month out of the last 5.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Thank you.

 

Even a relatively ignorant amateur such as myself knows that all this talk of the weather “owing” us “payback” for all the warm, dry conditions lately is a gambler’s fantasy.  It’s exactly the same as a gambler being convinced that he’s "owed payback” for a run of bad luck.

 

There’s a saying:  “the dice have no memory.”  The odds of rolling a seven are exactly the same each time no matter what has happened previously.  It’s why casino owners make millions.  They profit on the gambler’s irrational investment in the concept of luck being governed by some kind of scales of justice.

 

Similarly, all things being equal (i.e., the influence of large-scale mechanisms, the interactions of which we don’t seem to understand quite well enough yet to make them all that reliable as predictors), the chances of having a good or a bad winter next year are exactly the same no matter what has happened previously.

 

That said the odds of having a winter as terrible as this winter are lower than the combined odds of having an average or above average winter; either of which would seem amazing from the perspective of any of the past three winters (at least up this way). I think the gambling analogy for this would be quit while you're ahead (i.e. you just rolled three 1's in a row). Of course the climate does go through various decadal cycles so over shorter periods so the tendency might be higher for a certain atmospheric configuration depending on the point in the cycle; but, over time, climate (the average) will be achieved, albeit with smaller tendencies for one pattern over another due to longer running change (i.e. the warming of the planet).

[DareDuck]

Can you post it irrespective. ? .. I've got tools that can flip it.

 

— If you find that you can, send it to me via PM. And I'll send it back to you adjusted.

 

Here's the pic.

[stuffradio]

Clearly(?)

 

A bit of a non-sequiter, don't you think? It has been single digits at this time of year.

 

Sorry, I just don't get the point of these comments (you made a similar comment the other day). Either intended to spark debate or something else...

You don't spend enough time on here.

[richard mann]

Here's the pic.

 

Vio-la.      ... I've just gone ahead and posted it.

 

http://www.proxigee.com/post-923-0-57705600-1425183111-90degs_r.gif

 

.. So is this south of town then. ?

 

— Looking west looks as if.  WNW. 

[Deweydog]

We've had lengthy conversations about this exact line of thinking on here before. You're absolutely right. Mother Nature has no memory, and what happens is not dictated by the law of averages, or by what has previously occurred.

 

However, we can use past history as a guide to what is most likely to happen again in the future...to a certain degree.

 

To me the whole casino gaming analogy doesn't really hold water.  Granted the whole "we're due" thing is total BS, but it's BS that at least is partially based in reality.  With a roll of the dice, each roll is entirely independent of the other without exception, all things being equal.  With weather, the past does effect the future on both a dynamic and practical level.  We have a fairly good understanding of the push/pull of things and this affords us the ability to see the future to some degree, as opposed to a dice roll which can only be predicted for entertainment purposes. Statistics will always win out eventually while the weather actually dictates its associated statistics.  

[richard mann]

.. I'll put my money on propensities more multi-decal. 

[bainbridgekid]

To me the whole casino gaming analogy doesn't really hold water.  Granted the whole "we're due" thing is total BS, but it's BS that at least is partially based in reality.  With a roll of the dice, each roll is entirely independent of the other without exception, all things being equal.  With weather, the past does effect the future on both a dynamic and practical level.  We have a fairly good understanding of the push/pull of things and this affords us the ability to see the future to some degree, as opposed to a dice roll which can only be predicted for entertainment purposes. Statistics will always win out eventually while the weather actually dictates its associated statistics.  

I agree. It is not a perfect analogy because the past DOES effect the present when it comes to weather, at least in the short term.

 

But it is still a pretty good one IMO because while the weather one day is definitely positively correlated to the next day, I am pretty sure this effect quickly fizzles when you are talking about weeks, months, seasons, or years.

 

It would be time consuming, but fairly simple to test whether the weather one month, season or year was predictive in any way of the weather during the next period.

[TT-SEA]

I agree. It is not a perfect analogy because the past DOES effect the present when it comes to weather, at least in the short term.

 

But it is still a pretty good one IMO because while the weather one day is definitely positively correlated to the next day, I am pretty sure this effect quickly fizzles when you are talking about weeks, months, seasons, or years.

 

It would be time consuming, but fairly simple to test whether the weather one month, season or year was predictive in any way of the weather during the next period.

Over a longer period it will oscillate around normal of course. So if it's cold it will be warm again and vice versa. You just don't know when.

[Deweydog]

I agree. It is not a perfect analogy because the past DOES effect the present when it comes to weather, at least in the short term.

 

But it is still a pretty good one IMO because while the weather one day is definitely positively correlated to the next day, I am pretty sure this effect quickly fizzles when you are talking about weeks, months, seasons, or years.

 

It would be time consuming, but fairly simple to test whether the weather one month, season or year was predictive in any way of the weather during the next period.

I think it depends on how you look at it. For instance, let's say someone hands you a set of dice and they tell you someone else has just rolled them 1,000 times but you have no idea of the results. Most people would be just fine with that and the next 1,000 rolls would be viewed upon and "predicted" just as with any others. Apply that to weather now and take two people with a fairly useful knowledge of meteorology, one with knowledge of the past 100 years of weather for a specific region and one with absolutely no knowledge of the past. Who would be best to determine the loose likelihood of some fashion of anomaly over, let's say, the next 3 years?

[BLI snowman]

I'd expect SOMETHING pretty darn good in the next two Winters as well. Not because this Winter sucked, but just because in any two Winters there will probably be something pretty good.

 

I just have never seen any evidence at all that climate has a natural tendency to swing around to makeup for the extremes of the past. Of course there are plenty of anecdotes, but I would be very surprised if a systematic study revealed it to be true.

 

Little doubt the next two Winters will be better than this one though, because that is how extreme outliers work.

 

I think the years following our warmest winters regionally tend to have a higher than average propensity for severe cold/snow in the region.

 

This is obviously relatively arbitrary and it's obviously not completely scientific, but when we're talking about truly top tier warmth there overwhelmingly seems to be some next year payback.

 

The absolute warmest winters for the WA/OR/ID region prior to this were:

 

1. 1933-34

2. 1991-92

3. 2002-03

4. 1957-58

5. 1980-81

6. 1952-53

7. 1939-40

8. 1994-95

9. 1977-78

T-10. 1982-83

T-10. 1969-70

 

So the following winters were

 

1934-35

1992-93

2003-04

1958-59

1981-82

1953-54

1940-41

1995-96

1978-79

1983-84

1970-71

 

Of those 11 winters, only 1 of them (1940-41) lacked either a major arctic period or major snow event for the western lowlands. That's a much higher percentage of hits than we're used to seeing historically. 

 

This turnabout becomes far less noticeable the more moderate our blowtorches become. We've followed many modestly warm winters with complete mediocrity the following year. So obviously it's arbitrary and there's a point where the correlation, however small, is no longer worth pointing out.

[richard mann]

..... Who would be best to determine the loose likelihood of some fashion of anomaly over, let's say, the next 3 years?

.. Whoever's brother's, mother. (?)

[richard mann]

-
.. General leaning, the odds / factors more pertinent, noteworthy where looking at possible future changes broader patterning and conditions wise from one year to another more, ...

Per what I've been able to appreciate where looking at and considering all of the main more multi-decal oscillations having been established including it, ENSO's general state more kinetic is the main element and factor thought of as working to determine the general character of whatever more specific year's conditions looked at more over-all.

.. I'd say, looking at this idea, along together with also just where main and more primary cold sets up more strongly as the main colder season starts to establish itself more clearly each year, are probably the best set, of indicators where considering this idea more general.

— What lends to ENSO's changing state, and causes main cold to set up where it does, then being the main question/s greater … where considering a general gage of the way things "will" go.

Per my own study, and impression stemming from observation, main cold stores greater or lesser through higher latitude, looked as at an idea worthy of note, also appears to be more multi-decal.
 

[Jesse]

At least the 00Z GFS keeps a cooler airmass over us much of the work week, albeit still dry.

[bainbridgekid]

I think the years following our warmest winters regionally tend to have a higher than average propensity for severe cold/snow in the region.

 

This is obviously relatively arbitrary and it's obviously not completely scientific, but when we're talking about truly top tier warmth there overwhelmingly seems to be some next year payback.

 

The absolute warmest winters for the WA/OR/ID region prior to this were:

 

1. 1933-34

2. 1991-92

3. 2002-03

4. 1957-58

5. 1980-81

6. 1952-53

7. 1939-40

8. 1994-95

9. 1977-78

T-10. 1982-83

T-10. 1969-70

 

So the following winters were

 

1934-35

1992-93

2003-04

1958-59

1981-82

1953-54

1940-41

1995-96

1978-79

1983-84

1970-71

 

Of those 11 winters, only 1 of them (1940-41) lacked either a major arctic period or major snow event for the western lowlands. That's a much higher percentage of hits than we're used to seeing historically. 

 

This turnabout becomes far less noticeable the more moderate our blowtorches become. We've followed many modestly warm winters with complete mediocrity the following year. So obviously it's arbitrary and there's a point where the correlation, however small, is no longer worth pointing out.

Interesting stuff. 

 

In order to be convinced that there is any meaningful relationship though, I would need to see a much larger sample size or systematic study.

 

While on the subject, what percentage of our Winters would you say we get either a major arctic period or major snow event?

[DareDuck]

Vio-la.      ... I've just gone ahead and posted it.

 http://www.proxigee.com/post-923-0-57705600-1425183111-90degs_r.gif

.. So is this south of town then. ?— Looking west looks as if.  WNW.

 

Well done. Just a few miles SW of downtown and looking west. Spots exposed to the sun most of the day lost its snow, but most places still have an inch or two on the ground.

[BLI snowman]

Interesting stuff. 

 

In order to be convinced that there is any meaningful relationship though, I would need to see a much larger sample size or systematic study.

 

While on the subject, what percentage of our Winters would you say we get either a major arctic period or major snow event?

 

Very difficult to say, but it's definitely significantly lower than 90.9%. If you're looking at the percentage of years that have either major regionwide arctic periods or major lowland snowstorms (let's say across a 100 mile or greater radius), then maybe 50-60%? Obviously still incredibly arbitrary, and that batch of years is indeed a statistically insignificant sample size.

 

As it is, the odds of seeing two back to back duds are never high. I just feel those odds are weighted even more when the degree of warmth is as historic as it has been.

 

Clearly doesn't always work that way, or work both ways. Anyone banking on a warm winter the following year in spring 1949 would've later felt kind of silly (although the frigid 1948-57 stretch effectively balanced out the mild 1939-48 period).

[bainbridgekid]

I think Mt Baker's 21 inch base at the end of February is the most ridiculous stat of all... and with absolutely no snow in the forecast over the next two weeks really, they might just have to shut down early and disregard any possibility or recovering late.

More like 0 inches. 

 

Skagit Weather just posted this in the March thread.

 

[Deweydog]

Bye winter!

[Front Ranger]

To me the whole casino gaming analogy doesn't really hold water.  Granted the whole "we're due" thing is total BS, but it's BS that at least is partially based in reality.  With a roll of the dice, each roll is entirely independent of the other without exception, all things being equal.  With weather, the past does effect the future on both a dynamic and practical level.  We have a fairly good understanding of the push/pull of things and this affords us the ability to see the future to some degree, as opposed to a dice roll which can only be predicted for entertainment purposes. Statistics will always win out eventually while the weather actually dictates its associated statistics.  

 

I think we agree.

 

The casino analogy is only valid because some people have actually used that sort of logic: "we just had a historically bad winter, therefore the odds are higher that one of the next couple will be great". There is nothing scientific, weather-related or otherwise, to that line of thinking. However, as Snowman's post above illustrates, there is historical precedent for much better winters following terrible ones - though that may just be blind luck.

 

You'll notice my second sentence you quoted basically said the same thing you say here.

[Front Ranger]

Over a longer period it will oscillate around normal of course. So if it's cold it will be warm again and vice versa. You just don't know when.

 

Yes, and that's exactly how a roll of the dice works. Over time, we know that certain numbers/combinations come up more often than others, and the averages will play out. But those averages can be arrived at through some pretty "unlikely" streaks, and like you said, there is no way to predict the next roll based on the previous one.

[Front Ranger]

By the way, I'll fully admit that my call that February would be better than January turned out to be a bust for the PNW. We did finally see the pattern change up the second half of the month, but the ridging remained too close to the coast for the PNW to really benefit. Some of us in the West further inland did see a much better/more active pattern during this period, and CA ended up faring better, but the PNW did not, unfortunately.

 

The logic behind saying I thought February had a good chance to be better was the fact that historically, it is unusual for the kind of pattern January saw to continue all the way through February, and many very ridgy Januaries in the West were followed by more active/colder Februaries, especially when it wasn't a strong Nino.

[Jesse]

Alright kiddos, the year to beat this month is 1991 for PDX, 1968 for Downtown (probably a better comparison to PDX at this point with the heat island and whatnot).

 

The toasty February of 1968 featured a very warm late Summer/early Fall beforehand and went on to be one of the greatest Niños ever. Hmmm... Will be interesting to see how we dodge that bullet this time around!

 

Looks like PDX beat 1991. Not sure how downtown fared, stay tuned!!

[Abbotsford_wx]

Abbotsford was 46.8F, breaking the record of 46.0F from 1991. Several other stations also set records, but I don't have the numbers handy at the moment.