2/7 - 2/9 Great Lakes System

[Tom]

Most Models & Ensembles are beginning to converge on a piece of energy that originates out of the NE Pacific near British Columbia and develop a "Clipper type" system that swings SE through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region.  How and where this system tracks is yet to be determined.  There are several indicators that suggest an amplification of this system as it heads SE.

 

Taking a gander at the teleconnections during this time frame, we see a -EPO, near neutral NAO, slightly + AO, and +PNA.  With an amplifying west coast ridge and deepening east CONUS Trough, I have seen systems like this in the past dig into the Midwest and intensify as they head eastward before transferring it's energy into the east.  There will be a very strong HP centered to the south of Hudson Bay that will play a big role as to how much it will allow the system to cut north.  Let's discuss this potential here.

 

If anyone can, please post the GFS Ensembles.

[Geos]

On the 6z GFS is looking like a mix at best for a short time, but further north and east it looks to be snowy.

 

CMC had a larger coverage of a wintry mix.

 

 

12z NAM is way north.

[gosaints]

Signs pointing north

[Tony]

With the current modeling I don't believe this system will affect the Chi-Town area with anything appreciable.

[IAWXFan1]

This system doesn't look very organized, but certainly something that I am watching. LaCrosse forecast office has been discussing the potential and they have seem to be more optimistic than what the models are showing. 18Z GFS shows some of the precipitation nearing my region. Even a slight deviation could bring this further south and plenty of days for more movements. Does anyone know if the ECMWF is showing anything more than what the American models are showing currently?http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Money]

gb afd

 

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THAT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO
BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER. THIS
CLIPPER COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WITHOUT MUCH ACCUMULATION THOUGH. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WHEN MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG A TIGHT MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE BAND WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. BUT THE WAY THESE CLIPPERS HAVE CHANGED TRACK THIS
WINTER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOME. WITH ANY
OF THESE CLIPPERS WITH GOOD FGEN...COULD SEE NARROW SNOW BANDS
DEVELOP THAT COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.

[WBadgersW]

It's weird to see the models trend North today. Hopefully this thing comes back South.

[Maxim]

Final call for MBY: DAB

[Iowawx]

I don't even think a thread was needed for this. Nobody is going to get anything major out of it. Maybe delete it? 

[Tom]

I don't even think a thread was needed for this. Nobody is going to get anything major out of it. Maybe delete it? 

Nope, can't forget about those who live up north like Money/Snowshoe/Th_Snow...

 

Getting close for you guys up there.  

 

@Snowshoe, maybe this system will re-freshen those trails up by you so you can take your Beasty sled out!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Nope, can't forget about those who live up north like Money/Snowshoe/Th_Snow...

 

Getting close for you guys up there.  

 

@Snowshoe, maybe this system will re-freshen those trails up by you so you can take your Beasty sled out!

 

Considering this has trended north every run, wouldn't be surprised if it mostly impacts Canada and the UP.

[Snowshoe]

If trends persist I'll miss yet another snow chance. That said, the Northwoods really need the snow. Years like this is why you buy a nice trailer along with the snowmobile.

 

Still time to make a slight shift south.

[BrianJK]

Hopefully Eagle River can squeeze out 6+ from this

[Seahawkfan]

This is basically a non event by the time the weekends hits this is be a Canadian event. Looking extremely dry over the long Haul.

[Seahawkfan]

Not sure why Tom said we we're about to hit a wet phase. More like the opposite.

[Tom]

By tomorrow most of the energy from this system will be onshore.  Most 00z Euro Ensembles still show some nice hits for WI/MI with this system.  Last nights Euro run tried to show signs of it getting its act together but was to far east for WI folks.

 

Not sure why Tom said we we're about to hit a wet phase. More like the opposite.

Our region will be underneath a NW Flow pattern and depending on your location, you can score some Clippers with this pattern.

[Tom]

12z Euro taking baby steps and starting to look like some of the Ensembles for the Clipper that swings through the lower lakes.  It's a weak one, but it intensifies as it tracks through IA/C IL/C IN.  We still have a couple days to see how this evolves.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control kinda seeing it as well...better for S MI...

[Snowshoe]

No move to the south on this one. It just does not want to snow in northern Wisconsin!

 

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

[Tom]

Lake Effect snow parameters are decent for NE IL tomorrow night and on Monday.  High rez models are starting to pick up on lake effect snow showers.  Might pick up 1-2" in parts of Lake/Cook/Du Page county.

[Tom]

Wonder how much LES actually falls...would be nice to whiten up the scene again...even 1" would help.

[Geos]

Just a few flurries here today. Lake effect parameters just weren't there this time.