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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The rain was a bit heavier than radar suggested.  It also filled in just a bit as it passed through, so I ended up with a decent 0.25".  Iowa City experienced a heavy cell that dumped over an inch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My sister who lives approximately 7 to 8 miles se. of here said they got 2”!  I kinda got screwed for my community, but thankful for what we got though! Always seems to rain more a few miles se. during dry periods.

Storms appear weaker currently and were near max intensity earlier.

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I recorded just 0.07" of rain for yesterday and overnight. So all in all not much in the way of rain fall. Even with the little rain we have had this spring the grass is still nice and green at this time. If it stay dry that will not be the case. The official high for today looks to have been 62 and that was at 1AM. At this time it is cloudy here and 48. With highs for the next several days in the mid to upper 50's it will be about 10° below average. The average hH/L for today is 66/44 and by Friday it is 67/45. 

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PHX missed another opportunity to reach the Century mark last weekend due to clouds that rolled in...but...we have another chance this Wed/Thu so let's see if that happens.  The avg high today is already up to 91F and we are heading into the mid 90's today with CALM winds.  Gosh, it has been very windy out here this Spring so to have calmer winds it really is a treat .  Most of the storms that have hit the region have been dry and tracked north of here into the mountains and the end result is just windy conditions.  In any event, the W/SW will remain warm to hot while the rest of you east of the Rockies are locked into a long duration cool spell.  Speaking of which, as @westMJimmentioned yesterday, several days of AOB 32F temps are in the forecast for parts of lower MI/WI/U.P. and ND through the weekend.

 

Mother's Day weekend is looking cool and wet for some of the MW region...

 

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Looking out into Week 2, there is a hopeful opportunity for some warmth AND severe weather across the central plains/MW region during the 15th/16th period.  The EPO is forecast to pop into + territory along with a -PNA in tandem.  This should produce favorable conditions for a more summer-like pattern but my concern is it will be transient.  Gotta take the good with the bad this month as it appears more than likely that the blocking pattern will continue throughout this month.

In other news, my family out east across the "pond"' in Poland just experienced one of the coldest April's since the 90's.  In fact, due to the strong -NAO pattern last month, most of Europe was in the doldrums of late winter conditions.  It now looks like most of the U.S. will get a taste of what they just experienced this coming week.

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Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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At LNK here's some of the new averages(1981-2010 in parentheses): 

Avg temp: 52.3 (51.5)

Precip: 29.34" (28.95")

Snowfall: 26.0" (25.9")

image.thumb.png.b67f63f44e7f1e3e11d79b134b9ac7e0.png

The shift from snow in Nov/March to Jan/Feb is pretty apparent, as well as wetter winters and drier summers. This seems right, except temps are about 0.5-0.6 warmer than they should be. Just using the NWS NOWData tool you can see the discrepancy. I was thinking maybe they calculate normals some other way, but doing the same thing for 1981-2010 you get the exact same numbers as the official averages. 

540827122_LNKmax91-20.PNG.25fcd6e020f75da3504f0f88eee2efbd.PNG16785714_LNKmin91-20.PNG.22b86c6f4adedb3b338d5ae0b080edea.PNG

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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36 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

What is apparent in that temperature profile is an era when the warm tropics have ruled the climate near the continent. 2 super Niños and a monster Modoki in there, plus the PAC being anomalously warm (PDO+ or at times ++, Aleutian Warm pooling) are all contributions here in my opinion. 

It's compelling that the interior has cooled, and is a trend I look to see continue over the next 10 years. Especially if we enter an era of warmth from the central Pacific west while the PDO goes neg. Changes are coming over the next 18 months to 3 years, imo.

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It is looking like HP will suppress the Mother's Day weekend system farther south compared to recent days of model runs.  The 00z EPS is eyeing @CentralNebWeather S & E towards @Clinton and the rest of the KC crew.  While those north & east miss out on the rains this week or weekend, the signal is growing stronger for more bountiful chances of precip as we head into the following weekend.  "Warmer and Stormier" is what I'm thinking will happen for a lot of those who have been missed next weekend.

 

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Happy Cinco De Mayo!  One of my favorite "foodie" holidays is eating some fine Mexican food.

 

I saw this interesting tweet from @ryanmaue:

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How bad is the Phoenix heat island? Our newest and best weather models include cityscape land-surfaces that show up like Death Valley at sunset. Brutal
 
Fire
 
🌡
 
Woozy face
 
 
Image
Quote Tweet
 
 
EowvkH3T_mini.jpg
 
Ryan Maue
 
@RyanMaue
The urban heat islands of Las Vegas and Phoenix are getting much worse, as the entire Western US shifts to a more arid climate regime. But Vegas and Phoenix are in the desert so not much can be done except plant drought tolerant plants and conserve water

 

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The new 30 year averages are now out. This time there is also a new 15 year average to compare for more recent times.
Here at Grand Rapids the annual mean went up from 49.1 to 49.3 The new annual snow fall at Grand Rapids is now 77.6" up from the old 74.9" The total precip went up from 38.27 to 39.40. While most months went up in temperature not all did as February, April and November went down.

At this time it is cloudy and 45 here.

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21 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Well the new 1991-2020 averages have been released, not too surprising that much of the country is warmer. But something isn't right for Lincoln, I'll include in next post

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

Normals%20Temp%20Diff.png

In my mind it seems like for the last 20+ years it has unanimously been touted that climate change will lead to a disproportional increase of average temperatures for areas of the northern plains and upper midwest versus say coastal climates for example.  Coastal climate change is moderated oceans, which even if warmed still serve to moderate coastal extremes.  Is my memory correct?

It seems that the update in 30 year averages from 1980-2010 to 1990-2020 should be the first definitive data point in which the warming over the northern plains and upper midwest is clearly evident.  Yet, there seems to be little difference in this geographical area versus all others of the CONUS.  What gives?  

 

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Summers haven't gotten too bad in recent years and the polar vortex has been a frequent visitor. I think the only months that have gotten significantly warmer in the north central U.S. are December plus probably the Sept/Oct period. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. definitely doesn't get as cold as it used to. The cold wave in February was the lowest temps dropped in Memphis in 32 years (down to 1 compared to -4 in 1989). Before the 90s, flirting with zero mark or lower a few times a decade was basically expected. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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An interesting battle shaping up between the Euro and GFS for the Mother's Day weekend slider.  This is quite the storm that is being advertised.  It certainly has that look of a winter type mid lat cyclone that wraps up and slides east out of the Rockies.

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The Euro is still advertising a nice warm up by end of next week/weekend...starts earlier out in the Plains states...I'm diggin' this!

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I just looked at the 00z EPS and the general trend has been N with the track of this storm system and coming more in line with the GFS/GEFS.

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Nope, it wasn't UFO's that flew overhead but in fact it was the Starlink satellites in orbit!  Pretty neat stuff.  At night, where I am, you can see satellites traverse the skies every night.  There isn't a night where I can't count at least 2 or 3 of them.  It reminds me of how much our human race has leaped forward in technology and is undoubtedly connected to the stars in the Universe.

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Back to the weather, looking out in the extended, I'm still seeing a good signal that a more warmer pattern is setting up which will be welcomed after the upcoming 7 day period.  A major rise in the SOI, -PNA and +EPO suggest a ridge to build into the central Plains.  The only caviat I see is how strong does the blocking up north negate the warmer weather across the Northern parts of our Sub???  That remains to be seen.  Nonetheless, it is going to feel a lot better for many of us by next weekend and the farmers should be delighted.

1615890579_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(1).gif

 

 

The JMA weeklies agree that by Week 2 a seasonal look is shaping up across the central CONUS...a very wet pattern as well...

 

Y202105.D0512_gl2.png

 

Y202105.D0512_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4 is trending towards the long standing call that we see Summer showing signs of sustained life by the end of May???

Y202105.D0512_gl2.png

 

The 500mb pattern over the west coast and the east coast/GL's could very well set up a favorable warm regime and thus produce a ridge over trough pattern across the S Plains.  Let's see what the Euro weeklies show later today.

Y202105.D0512_gl0.png

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At this time it is cloudy here and 47. With a blink of the eye and the new averages the snow fall departure at Grand Rapids went from -28.8" to -31.5" so that means last winters 46.1" of total snow fall was about over 2 and a half feet below the new average.

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The UK has joined the GFS in showing more rain farther north this weekend.  That would be great.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So far the official high here at Grand Rapids has been just 48 if this holds until midnight this will tie for the 3rd coldest maximum for any May 6th and it would have to get to 54 to not be a top 10 coldest May 6 in recorded history. So the year of extremes continues. The current temperature of 44 is -19° for the 5PM average temperature for May 6th.

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Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids of 48 was the 4th coldest maximum and it was the coldest maximum since 1906. The official over night low of 33 will be the 9th coldest low for today. At this time it is foggy here with visibility of around a ¼ mile. The current temperature here at my house is 34.

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00z Euro/EPS maintain a southerly track while the GFS/GEFS are farther north....

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This would be a nail biter situation if I was tracking this storm during the cold season...nonetheless, some heft precip is going to be delivered by this system.

06z RGEM...

rgem_apcpn_ncus_82.png

 

 

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If we are to believe the 00z EPS, a sustained warm up is on deck from next weekend into the following week...not only that, but an active pattern is shaping up for the 2nd half of May esp for those who have been quite dry of late.

1446896533_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates2-mTemperatureAnom(1).gif

 

I took a glance at the Euro weeklies from yesterday and they, to, suggest this warm signal to have some legs.  It may get interrupted by Memorial Day weekend, however, but then another warm signal shows up as we enter June.  Summer heat by late month for parts of the Plains/Upper MW??  It's been on my calendar for some time now.

Yesterday, PHX made it to 101F and that makes it 2 days in a row hitting the century mark and it appears that next week there may very well be a string of 100's.  

 

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