Tom Posted May 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Ah ha, the CFSv2 has now have flipped to a warm spell for Week 2... Wet pattern should shift farther north as well... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 12z HRRR showing some strong storm clusters... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 @Clinton, your looking good for some severe Wx action Sunday. That goes for the KC crew as well. Best setup of the season so far. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids. The Euro still barely drops anything here. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 The official overnight low of 32 makes today the 7th coldest low for any May 7th in recorded history at Grand Rapids and the coldest May 7th low since 1947. Will let you know later how todays high plays out but it will be in the top 15 or less. And with lows forecasted in the low 30’s for the next several nights that will continue to be the case. At this time just had a brief shower and the temperature is now at 48 here. The 30 year average reading for 12noon at Grand Rapids is 61.2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 52 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids. The Euro still barely drops anything here. I think it will come back N on the 12z run...trends in the GEFS/GEPS have been rock steady... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Yesterday the UK lifted the 1+" precip north through Cedar Rapids. The last two runs have each gone back south, now down to 0.4" here. The Euro has never budged from its south track. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Euro still south Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Long range RAP- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Euro finally came north. And many models are showing snow mixing in and changing over on the north end of this system. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Looking forward to a good soaker. My yard needs it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Nice to see the Euro/EPS follow suit and trend North...below is the 00z EPS... I don't have my notebook handy to be able to look back at previous LRC cycles, but what I'm seeing in the modeling for late next weekend into the following week starkly reminds me of the LRC pattern which parks a trough in the SW creating a SW Flow aloft. This is a bonafide major warm signal for our Sub Forum. Is this the summer pattern we have been waiting for? Sure looks like it. Could summer temps be coming in earlier??? Boy, the 00z EPS is certainly looking mighty nice in terms of temps and precip chances. Is the traditional Tornado Alley going to come alive??? I think so. Severe Wx looks ideal in this set up and I think we may be heading into a very active pattern with multiple days of severe wx potential starting late next weekend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 What the....??? May snow in the grid back home...no bueno...dynamic cooling may do the trick...in the warm sector of the storm, KC and MO peeps have a nasty squall line signal showing up... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 This morning's NAM model showing a nasty bow echo moving through KC overnight could be a lot of wind with that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: This morning's NAM model showing a nasty bow echo moving through KC overnight could be a lot of wind with that one. No doubt... I hope this is right bc that'll put a dent into the drought conditions for the lower lakes...1-2" of rain would be welcomed... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 The SD black hills are awesome, I gotta come in the winter some time! The drive here was interesting as well since I had never been west of Kearney. The sand hills is probably the most desolate region of the country east of the Rockies. It was quite the peaceful drive (except at one point I was about to pee my pants and had to go on the side of the road ) 4 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 I sure didn’t realize we are 7” ahead of last year’s precipitation as of May 7th. Got this from the local newspaper. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 I hope the HRRR is onto something with its prediction of a heavy band through the northern part of the rain shield. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 The UK has been one of the drier models for the northern edge. Today's 12z run changed that. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Final Euro is very close to the UK 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 18z HRRR This model has really dried out far northeast Illinois today. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Down to 48 with light rain. Couple days ago the forecast was dry with low 60s. We need the moisture though so thats good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 This afternoon the HRRR has gradually sagged south. CR has gone from over 2" to a bit over 1". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 A tiny cell that passed overhead around 30 minutes ago produced brief heavy rain and some tiny hail bigger than sleet. Also a few light rumbles of thunder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Down to 43 now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, Sparky said: A tiny cell that passed overhead around 30 minutes ago produced brief heavy rain and some tiny hail bigger than sleet. Also a few light rumbles of thunder I also just received some hail/sleet as the main precip began a little while ago. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 So the other models basically caved to the GFS, but still need to see how it all pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Storms are really firing in southern Nebraska and Ks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 Snow is being reported just west of Mason City. 2 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 8, 2021 Report Share Posted May 8, 2021 41 with ice pellets and thunder. Crazy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 Rained around a third of an inch here so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 Ice pellets and thunder here as well. Under a pretty good downpour at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 37 now! Gonna be snowing if it keeps dropping 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids. For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2". The latest run is down to 0.6". At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids. For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2". The latest run is down to 0.6". At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment. I was in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and got 0.0”. I can’t believe my area was included as all weather models showed all storms would be east and southeast of here. Cold front has dropped the temp to 50 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 Its been thundering on and off all evening. Been a while since that has happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 Northern Iowa is getting hit hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 I may get screwed. Better rainfall north and nice storms in sw. Iowa. But the northern returns may partially be bright banding and not as heavy as it appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 I can’t tell if this band is gonna sink south. Or if models were too far south with the heavy rain bad. Because it looks like the highway 20 corridor is going to get the most rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 9, 2021 Report Share Posted May 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I can’t tell if this band is gonna sink south. Or if models were too far south with the heavy rain bad. Because it looks like the highway 20 corridor is going to get the most rain. A lot of personal stations in the Waterloo area are around an inch. I've only received 0.20". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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