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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids.  The Euro still barely drops anything here.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The official overnight low of 32 makes today the 7th coldest low for any May 7th in recorded history at Grand Rapids and the coldest May 7th low since 1947.  Will let you know later how todays high plays out but it will be in the top 15 or less. And with lows forecasted in the low 30’s for the next several nights that will continue to be the case. At this time just had a brief shower and the temperature is now at 48 here. The 30 year average reading for 12noon at Grand Rapids is 61.2.

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52 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The RDPS has inched north, now has a soaking rain up to Cedar Rapids.  The Euro still barely drops anything here.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

I think it will come back N on the 12z run...trends in the GEFS/GEPS have been rock steady...

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_fh60_trend.gif

 

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Yesterday the UK lifted the 1+" precip north through Cedar Rapids.  The last two runs have each gone back south, now down to 0.4" here.  The Euro has never budged from its south track.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice to see the Euro/EPS follow suit and trend North...below is the 00z EPS...

 

2.png

 

I don't have my notebook handy to be able to look back at previous LRC cycles, but what I'm seeing in the modeling for late next weekend into the following week starkly reminds me of the LRC pattern which parks a trough in the SW creating a SW Flow aloft.  This is a bonafide major warm signal for our Sub Forum.  Is this the summer pattern we have been waiting for?  Sure looks like it.

 

Could summer temps be coming in earlier???  Boy, the 00z EPS is certainly looking mighty nice in terms of temps and precip chances.

 

1.png

 

 

Is the traditional Tornado Alley going to come alive???  I think so.  Severe Wx looks ideal in this set up and I think we may be heading into a very active pattern with multiple days of severe wx potential starting late next weekend.

 

 

 

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What the....???  May snow in the grid back home...no bueno...dynamic cooling may do the trick...in the warm sector of the storm, KC and MO peeps have a nasty squall line signal showing up...

 

 

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh17-28.gif

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 This morning's NAM model showing a nasty bow echo moving through KC overnight could be a lot of wind with that one.

No doubt...

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

I hope this is right bc that'll put a dent into the drought conditions for the lower lakes...1-2" of rain would be welcomed...

namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png

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The SD black hills are awesome, I gotta come in the winter some time! The drive here was interesting as well since I had never been west of Kearney. The sand hills is probably the most desolate region of the country east of the Rockies. It was quite the peaceful drive (except at one point I was about to pee my pants and had to go on the side of the road ☠️)

8BC65070-CAC8-436A-9C99-6A500D864627.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I hope the HRRR is onto something with its prediction of a heavy band through the northern part of the rain shield.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The UK has been one of the drier models for the northern edge.  Today's 12z run changed that.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR

This model has really dried out far northeast Illinois today.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This afternoon the HRRR has gradually sagged south.  CR has gone from over 2" to a bit over 1".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Sparky said:

A tiny cell that passed overhead around 30 minutes ago produced brief heavy rain and some tiny hail bigger than sleet. Also a few light rumbles of thunder 

I also just received some hail/sleet as the main precip began a little while ago.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids.  For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2".  The latest run is down to 0.6".  At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids.  For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2".  The latest run is down to 0.6".  At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment.

I was in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and got 0.0”. I can’t believe my area was included as all weather models showed all storms would be east and southeast of here. Cold front has dropped the temp to 50 degrees. 

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can’t tell if this band is gonna sink south. Or if models were too far south with the heavy rain bad. Because it looks like the highway 20 corridor is going to get the most rain. 

A lot of personal stations in the Waterloo area are around an inch.  I've only received 0.20".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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