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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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It's a hazy and warm morning here with cloudy skies.  Gotta get used to this humidity bc I certainly am not acclimated and the DP is only at 61F!  Can't imagine what its going to feel like on Sat/Sun when high temps surge to near 90F.  Nonetheless, I'll be enjoying this warmth.  ORD picked up .15" of rain yesterday with off/on showers through midday.  It was a pleasant day with a strong southerly breeze and temps in the low 70's.

 

Got my eyes on next weeks pattern as it looks to finally get active around here and the GL's region.  Timing the next rounds of storms next Tue/Wed and then Thu/Fri into the long awaited MDW.

 

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Here NW of GR there was a light rain shower yesterday and I recorded 0.02" The overnight low here at my house was 63 and at this time with cloudy skies it it 69 here. The record highs for the next several days are in the low 90's Highs of 85 or above would be in the top 10 on most days. So enjoy this nice taste of summer.

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We have yet another gloomy, wet morning.  Early this morning we received another 0.05" of rain, continuing the pattern of a few hundredths here, a few there.  All it's doing is keeping everything wet without adding up to much.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

We have yet another gloomy, wet morning.  Early this morning we received another 0.05" of rain, continuing the pattern of a few hundredths here, a few there.  All it's doing is keeping everything wet without adding up to much.

Pretty much the same gloomy scene here, except I have dumped around 0.50" of rain out of the rain gauge each of the last five days or so. Everything is wet all the time and I can't get anything done outside. It's like Mother Nature is waterboarding us here...we're not really drowning but it kinda feels like it.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Another cloudy day with some lt rain earlier and now again this afternoon. The heavier rain looks like it's staying just east and south of here.

I've had .06" of rain so far today and that now makes 11 out of 20 days with measurable precip so far this month. 

This pattern sucks. It's finally warmed up a bit so that's not bad, but the clouds and lt showers are annoying. What looked like a possible great severe weather setup this weekend too has fizzled thanks to the ridge in the southeast that hasn't let the big upper low out west move anywhere until it weakens and then moves more north than east.

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Another tiny cell moved over us this evening and dropped a quick 0.13".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Flipped the A/C on for the 1st time this season yesterday during the late afternoon.  The drought monitor came out yesterday and NE IL is under a severe drought along with parts of W MI that include the GRR area.  Boy, we certainly need the rain over here.  To put this into perspective, last year ORD had 19.36" of precip to date while this year we have only seen 5.63".  The last 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020) for the month of May, we have had consecutive record setting precip totals while this year we are the 10th driest May.  What a difference it has been.

usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc--web--2021-

 

 

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After 20 days May 2021 has a mean temperature at Grand Rapids of 55.2 that is a departure of -2.1. The official high so far has been 86 and the official low was 30. There have been a total of 13 days of below average means and 7 days of above average mean. (today will be the 8th day) So far there has only been 0.70″ of rain fall. The overnight low here at my house was 60 while it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 62. At this time there is hazy and 71 here.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I've been getting between a tenth to .25 in a day.  The weekend had been looking dry but now rain is back in the forecast tomorrow.

i was looking forward to this weekend as it looked like the southeast high would dry us out and give us some sun now all i see is rain and more rain 

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i was looking forward to this weekend as it looked like the southeast high would dry us out and give us some sun now all i see is rain and more rain 

Lots of people with lake plans this weekend, maybe some sun will shine on Sunday.  Next week may not be much better.

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If the Euro Weeklies are right, some places in the central ag belt will need a canoe and may be cause for concern.  Flooding could be a real bad impact if this pattern transpires.  

1.png

 

Geeze, the 12z GFS and other modeling has a continuous wave train pretty much every other day into June.  I know a lot of us may be in need of rain, but too much of a good thing could be impactful.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_43.png

 

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

Flipped the A/C on for the 1st time this season yesterday during the late afternoon.  The drought monitor came out yesterday and NE IL is under a severe drought along with parts of W MI that include the GRR area.  Boy, we certainly need the rain over here.  To put this into perspective, last year ORD had 19.36" of precip to date while this year we have only seen 5.63".  The last 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020) for the month of May, we have had consecutive record setting precip totals while this year we are the 10th driest May.  What a difference it has been.

usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc--web--2021-

 

 

I can confirm in GR that watering has been an everyday occurrence this week just to stave off any browning of the grass.  It's a losing battle.  I can't remember a time it looked this dead of summer this early.  And that's after a cool start to May, but almost no rain.   So yeah it is dry here.    Looks like we may cut into the drought a bit next week, hopefully.  

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco says unsettled pattern for awhile. 


“By Tuesday, this front is trending toward stalling somewhere in the central Plains and could stick around awhile. Also, we get an almost continual flow of rather high PWs for the rest of the forecast and beyond by a consensus of models. We could be setting up for a rather efficient rain event, especially if we wind up getting some training convection.”

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Cedar Rapids continues to be nickel and dimed this week.  My gauge collected 0.05" today.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

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5 hours ago, Sparky said:

I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

While you guys a bit west are wishing for drier weather, folks over here are hoping for wetter weather!  It appears that mother nature will attempt to balance things out around these parts but I'm getting more concerned for multi-day severe wx action days next week across the central ag belt.

0z Euro through next Sat...next Wed/Thu period could showcase an intense wave coming out of the Rockies producing the seasons first MCS or at the very least a widespread squall line???

1.png

 

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Thursday's Euro Weeklies run continues to illustrate a central CONUS deluge....the GOM will be fueling the atmosphere while CF's sweep through the majority of our Sub.  I had an idea that by late May the severe wx threat would shift north and next week it is looking likely that our members in NE/IA will likely see there 1st severe storms.

2.png

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6 hours ago, Sparky said:

I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

Very nice info! Ive only lived in Iowa since 2008. But the summer of 2010 was crazy wet.  A friend ne of Ottumwa  had over 60" for the yr and  lake rathbun was absurdly over 70"  2008 was bad but  seems most the  river flooding originated further north?  Its interesting  to see 1993 started with low  severe  numbers.  Ive barely heard any thunder here this yr. But plenty wet!!

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I woke up to a wet road and driveway. Went to the rain gauge and found out that a whopping 0.03"of rain fell. That brings the May total here at my house to 0.49" the official amount at GRR is 0.70 and to the west of me at Muskegon the official amount is 0.54" The overnight low both here and the airport was 65 and with cloudy skies it is now 68 here. 

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We are waking up to more thick clouds today.  There hasn't been morning sun since last week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

This will be my 8th consecutive day of rain, the record is 10 back in 2017. Total rainfall over the 8 days is 2.76in. The last 4 days .2 or less has fallen each day.

It has already rained today so this is 8 consecutive days for TOP as well. Day 3 was .02 and day 7 was .01, but the other days have been generally around 0.50" or more. I was able to mow yesterday but everything was pretty soggy. More rain forecast for much of the upcoming week. Can you imagine if this was a winter snowy pattern?  Yikes...lol

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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For many days this weekend was looking like at least partly sunny with temps well into the 80s.  Instead, it's more thick clouds with waves of mist and a temp near 70.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For many days this weekend was looking like at least partly sunny with temps well into the 80s.  Instead, it's more thick clouds with waves of mist and a temp near 70.

Yes I was hoping for sunshine. I guess I just need to finish mowing the lawn when the grass is wet. It hasn’t rained much at all. For awhile rain seemed to be heading my way, but it weakened and veered se. of here.

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Today was one of dampest days in this string of  threats of rain  daily.   .26 my home. But .95 surprisingly at our shop east of Ottumwa.  NWS had us a 20% for today  yesterday evening  forecast.   Zero sun and still showering,  Tropical. But high temp 73, not the 80s anticipated  couple days back.

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Only a trace of rain here today, but it was misting off/on all day, which kept the grass wet while I mowed.  The clouds finally cleared and the sun poked out at 7pm.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The signal is growing among the various models for a nasty storm complex to form in NE and head almost due E into IA/IL.  This is going to be the seasons 1st legit severe wx threat for a lot of our members across the central Sub.  Hopefully this won't be a Aug 2020 repeat that happened in IA.

 

00z Euro through Sat morning...

1.png

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

The signal is growing among the various models for a nasty storm complex to form in NE and head almost due E into IA/IL.  This is going to be the seasons 1st legit severe wx threat for a lot of our members across the central Sub.  Hopefully this won't be a Aug 2020 repeat that happened in IA.

 

00z Euro through Sat morning...

1.png

 

 

NWS Hastings just mentioned this in their morning disco along with potential flooding rains during the week. 

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