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May Observations and Discussion


Tom

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18Z HRRR is pretty scary looking for Nebraska tomorrow. Develops what would probably be tornadic supercells out ahead of the main line tomorrow evening in east central Nebraska and then has a big squall line go across the state.

Shows 3-6" of rain for east central Nebraska as well.

Very impressive soundings as well even well into the overnight when surface based CAPE normally disappears. Most models are showing 2-3k of surface based CAPE and 40-60 knots of shear all through the night. Could be a pretty bad night Wednesday night.

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Omaha NWS AFD:

A vigorous shortwave trough will move through the northern Plains
while a surface low develops from eastern CO into eastern NE by
12z Thursday. A warm front will lift north ahead of the surface
low with dewpoints rising back into the lower/mid 60s to the south
of that boundary. Consensus of available model data suggest that
storms will quickly grow upscale into a convective system over
western NE during the evening hours. Farther east, various models
have shown some signal for more discrete storm development along
and north of the warm front during the evening from central into
eastern NE.

There is considerable model variance in the characteristics of
the low-level moisture profile in the vicinity of the warm front,
especially from mid to late evening. The nocturnal strengthening
of the low-level jet will result in large, clockwise-curved
hodographs, suggesting a conditional supercell tornado threat
downstream from the evolving QLCS, assuming 1) in situ storm
initiation along the warm front, and 2) storms are surface-based
within the moistening boundary layer. Otherwise, expect that the
QLCS will track southeast along the immediate cool side of the
warm front with the system moving through the majority of our area
after midnight. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather
hazard. However, tornadoes will be possible with any embedded
mesovortices and/or HP supercells. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be a concern.
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53 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yikes!!

hrrr_2021052518_034_40.65--96.94.png

I can't tell you one thing from that so I'm glad other people are able to tell me ☠️ On another note, the 12-3 am time frame is pretty annoying. That was around the window basically every severe storm rolled through Lincoln last summer. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I can't tell you one thing from that so I'm glad other people are able to tell me ☠️ On another note, the 12-3 am time frame is pretty annoying. That was around the window basically every severe storm rolled through Lincoln last summer. 

I understand most of the numbers and indices thanks to my meteorology classes at UNL and lots of studying online. The curved shape of the hodographs up I n the top right is about as perfect as you will see for a tornado sounding!

I agree. It’s nice to be able to see the storm structure etc. Not to mention I’d rather have the possible power outages during the day although I guess it’s not as warm at night.

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8 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Hawkeye is about to get the second nice storm of this week. 

Yeah, I've been following it all night.  It didn't look good for us, but the storms to the north have gradually sunk southward and built up at the south end.  Now the strongest cell is about to move into Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The strongest cell moved over me, but it was still just a low-end thunderstorm.  There was lightning and thunder, but not a lot of it, and the thunder was not loud at all.  I picked up 0.39" of rain.  It's nice to get a thunderstorm in such a quiet year.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I woke up around 3:00am to a torrential downpour as the rain was pounding my sky light.  Couldn't go back to sleep so this may be a rough morning.  Looks like GRR is getting rocked by heavy rain as well.  Glad to see nature soak those who are in a severe drought.

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So far the latest reading out of ORD is .75 of welcomed rainfall...can't wait for the sun to come out later this morning and go for a walk.  Looks like a splendid day on tap with lowering DP's and temps topping out in the mid 80's.  Today's the last warm day before some really chilly air invades the region both Thu and Fri.   #HappyHumpDay

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Here at my house I recorded 1.09" of rain fall overnight. Will have to see what GRR official total rain fall  the event ends up at but for here that is the most rain for any event since September 8th last year. The overnight low and current temperature is 61. 

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@CentralNebWeather, your in the bullseye my friend...hunker down and stay safe out there bud.  Take some pics of the towering thunderheads if you can.  You should be seeing them develop after lunch time today and the sun angle could be perfect for snapping photos out from behind the storm clouds.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

@CentralNebWeather, your in the bullseye my friend...hunker down and stay safe out there bud.  Take some pics of the towering thunderheads if you can.  You should be seeing them develop after lunch time today and the sun angle could be perfect for snapping photos out from behind the storm clouds.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

I will my friend. Already planning to put our kids vehicles in buildings at the farm east of town in case of hail. Local mets doing a good job getting the word out. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Snow showers waking up for me this morning, melting as it hits the ground mixed with sleet.  Definitely the latest snow I have experienced in Minnesota. 

I was waiting for this to happen...models were suggesting it and now your experiencing it...it may be @Madtown turn later Thu pm.

 

Edit: I'm wondering now if this sets the stage for the opportunity to see the shortest window between your "last flake and first flake" sometime in October??

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The 12z HRRR is showing the scenario I feared.  By Thursday morning the storms dive into Missouri.  As that happens, the rain to the north craps out as it moves into my area and points east.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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47 minutes ago, Tom said:

I was waiting for this to happen...models were suggesting it and now your experiencing it...it may be @Madtown turn later Thu pm.

 

Edit: I'm wondering now if this sets the stage for the opportunity to see the shortest window between your "last flake and first flake" sometime in October??

I am guessing it would take September snow to set that type of record this far north even with a late may snowfall.  

For posterity...

image.png.6d4b691061e0e1621963d0a76a456442.png

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The NAM has temps in the low to mid 40s across eastern Iowa Friday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In addition to the very cold Friday highs, the NAM and RDPS are also suggesting frost or freeze in the region Saturday morning.  I really hope they are overdoing it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What a gorgeous afternoon after a wet and gloomy start to the day.  Bright blue skies with lowering humidity levels and a temp in the upper 70's.  Gosh, I hope to see many of these type of days come June and throughout the summer instead of having to wait till end of Aug or Sept.  Currently 79F/51F

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12z Euro would be a fantastic outcome in terms of precip for N IL and into lower MI...literally where the Severe Drought is centered.  I will say, after the rains last night and the day before, the grass is growing quickly and things are turning around.

1.png

 

A couple very cool/cold days lie ahead for the Upper MW/GL's...can't sugar coat it but at least it isn't during the holiday weekend.  Thu/Fri daytime highs below...

2.png

3.png

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Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT/545 PM CDT/
FOR NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTIES...

At 410 PM MDT/510 PM CDT/, a confirmed tornado was located 10 miles
south of Wauneta, or 17 miles northeast of Benkelman, moving north at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 410 PM MDT...two
         tornadoes are ongoing north northeast of Max.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Hitchcock and northeastern Dundy Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It appears the storms are taking the southern route tonight.  Omaha and Lincoln may just get a general rain shield while the storms dive into Kansas.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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