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18z HRRR

This model has really dried out far northeast Illinois today.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Storm spotter posted this picture last evening about 8 pm outside of town where I live. Holdrege.  

Spent the 25th through the 30th in the Wilderness near Ely. It was chilly, but not as cold near the water. ( water temp remained 60F even though night lows were in the 20's with records of 21F and 22F

Hail at my dad's place

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This afternoon the HRRR has gradually sagged south.  CR has gone from over 2" to a bit over 1".

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A tiny cell that passed overhead around 30 minutes ago produced brief heavy rain and some tiny hail bigger than sleet. Also a few light rumbles of thunder 

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14 minutes ago, Sparky said:

A tiny cell that passed overhead around 30 minutes ago produced brief heavy rain and some tiny hail bigger than sleet. Also a few light rumbles of thunder 

I also just received some hail/sleet as the main precip began a little while ago.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snow is being reported just west of Mason City.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids.  For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2".  The latest run is down to 0.6".  At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR is suddenly fading fast for Cedar Rapids.  For several runs earlier in the day it had CR over 2".  The latest run is down to 0.6".  At this point, anything less than 1" would be a disappointment.

I was in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and got 0.0”. I can’t believe my area was included as all weather models showed all storms would be east and southeast of here. Cold front has dropped the temp to 50 degrees. 

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I may get screwed. Better rainfall north and nice storms in sw. Iowa. But the northern returns may partially be bright banding and not as heavy as it appears.

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I can’t tell if this band is gonna sink south. Or if models were too far south with the heavy rain bad. Because it looks like the highway 20 corridor is going to get the most rain. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can’t tell if this band is gonna sink south. Or if models were too far south with the heavy rain bad. Because it looks like the highway 20 corridor is going to get the most rain. 

A lot of personal stations in the Waterloo area are around an inch.  I've only received 0.20".

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0.29” here so far. An inch looked like a slam dunk. Not anymore. Could still happen but it doesn’t seem likely unless that area of rain in western Iowa moves nearly due east

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1.11" is my rain total.  I'm satisfied with that.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It was raining basically all night with very light rain continuing attm. 1.64” so far. Had occasional lightning and thunder for awhile after midnight as well.

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The month of May is now below average at most locations. And in the last 27 days there have been 22 days below average and only 5 day above average. The over night low here was 37 and at this time with cloudy skies it is 41. It has not only been cool it also has been some what dry. Officially at GRR they have reported 1.04" of rain in the last 27 days while here at my house I have only recorded 0.78" of rain fall.

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Heavy rain and strong winds overnight with some small hail. I recorded 1.81 inches. Winds are still gusting to 28 mph and the temp is a chilly 48.

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Man, if this was a winter storm, I'd be going nuts missing this system just to my south by only a few miles!  Congrats to all of those who have scored some much needed precip.  @Clinton @KCSmokey @MIKEKC and KC folks, that was quite the powerful squall line that ripped through last night.  I read the warning and it said winds up to 70mph and nickel sized hail.  Was is it a good storm??

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Man, if this was a winter storm, I'd be going nuts missing this system just to my south by only a few miles!  Congrats to all of those who have scored some much needed precip.  @Clinton @KCSmokey @MIKEKC and KC folks, that was quite the powerful squall line that ripped through last night.  I read the warning and it said winds up to 70mph and nickel sized hail.  Was is it a good storm??

Yes it was and by far the strongest line so far this year. Lots of limbs down in the area.

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Caught the 3 AM southern MO storm last night near Cassville. Ping-pong ball hail and tree damage. I figure if that little storm had that kind of kick, the ones up north did too.

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While the 00z EPS has delayed the warm up next weekend by a day or so if you live closer to the GL's region, it appears likely that an extended warm spell is certainly on the horizon for the following week.

1371810871_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates2-mTemperatureAnom(2).gif

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Picked up 3.3" of rain at my house the last couple of days in strong storms with some small hail, but nothing particularly severe.

We did score a tornado watch here for the first time since 2019 (I assume - none in 2020), but the conditions were pretty marginal I thought. Kind of like the MLB player that breaks his 0 for 20 hitless streak by hitting a soft popup that nobody gets to. Still, better than a tornado grand slam for sure...lol

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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Very nice 1.6" rain here in the Ottumwa  Iowa area. Widespread  1 to 2 inches across the entire area.  Models were exceptional. Started late but was quite the event with brutal east wind. Many have roof leaks owing to the wind. We have 5 gauges on 2 properties. Each was different with the wind I suspect 

20210509_070909.jpg

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Earliest tropical system ever recorded just off the Mexican coast! And this follows a record setting tropical season of 2020.

Beautiful day here. Mowed the lawn and did some other yard work. Time to put some chicken drumsticks and veggies on the Weber. And have a cold one.

Happy Mother's Day!

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Earliest tropical system ever recorded just off the Mexican coast! And this follows a record setting tropical season of 2020.

Beautiful day here. Mowed the lawn and did some other yard work. Time to put some chicken drumsticks and veggies on the Weber. And have a cold one.

Happy Mother's Day!

It's time for the Pacific to roar in 2021. Should make for interesting weather on our side of the globe later on.

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GFS continues to have a  very cool end to the week--- 4pm Friday the 14th- very close to rec min/maxs over IA.

sfct.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Models keep trending cooler for the weekend in and around the MW/GL's region.  It now is looking like there could be a rain event on Saturday sweeping across the corn belt regions of the MW.  

1.png

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The quiet wx pattern this week will help dry out out those who got soaked from the weekend storm.  Next week things get warm and active across the corn belt.  A summer like pattern is in store my friends!  It may be time to bring out the boats and fishing gear.

2.png

 

 

 

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The overnight low here was 37 so no frost last night. At Grand Rapids May now has a mean of 52.3 and that is a departure of -3.0. At Muskegon the mean is 50.2 and that is a departure of -3.9. At Holland the mean is 50.7 that is a departure of -3.7. And to the east at Lansing their mean so far this month is 51.7 good for a departure of -2.9. The current temperature here at my house is 42 with mostly cloudy skies.

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Looks like one more below freezing night here before we warm up for good. 

If tonight were to be the last freeze here, it would be just slightly later than average (May 10 is the average).

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Yuck. If you like severe weather, don't look at the GFS. Basically 16 days of nothing where the composite numbers of EHI or supercell composite never get above zero basically north of central Kansas and even that is only a couple of days there.

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I have no idea what "normal" is like- but Tornado Alley has to be WAY behind in Tor watches this year-https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_torww_to_date.pngand Iowa with 95% of state not seeing a simple Severe TS Watch-- must be close to a record. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_svrww_to_date.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I have no idea what "normal" is like- but Tornado Alley has to be WAY behind in Tor watches this year-https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_torww_to_date.pngand Iowa with 95% of state not seeing a simple Severe TS Watch-- must be close to a record. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_svrww_to_date.png

Here’s an update through April

 

889AA41A-95BB-4228-9B68-928990071987.jpeg

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Been rather wet down S. --

Since March 01, 2021, ( 71 Days), New Orleans International Airport has received 30.37 inches of rainfall. Normal value is 11.36" in that time frame.

That's absurd.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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11 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I have no idea what "normal" is like- but Tornado Alley has to be WAY behind in Tor watches this year-https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_torww_to_date.pngand Iowa with 95% of state not seeing a simple Severe TS Watch-- must be close to a record. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2021_svrww_to_date.png

Maybe a record slow start for Iowa as well! 
This was as of the last day of April already for the DMX CWA.

For Iowa as a whole.

 

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Well, its been cold in KC for better then a month now. Sure, we have had some warm days in there, but, overall, very cool weather pattern since the middle of April. Hasn't been overly wet, big rains when they have occurred. Scored 1.67 inches of rain Saturday night this past weekend.(we actually needed it, with all the dry NW winds and low humidity, soils were sucked dry) No severe weather in KC, just some good ole thunderstorms. We have not had anything severe really for two years. The last two years have been too cool for severe weather in April and May.

 

 

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