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It continues to be dry here in west Michigan this is from the NWS



"It continues to be cool and dry. The low here at my house was 33 and it looks like the official low at GRR will be 34. At this time it is clear and 39 here.

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Pattern looks to remain active, cool, and wet for the I 70 corridor. Hopefully some beneficial rains for others who have missed out over the next 10 days.

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It's like mother nature wants to put up a road block from I-80 on north...last week the models showed a decent chance for our northern members to score some precip but that has all since trended south due to all the blocking.  Sign of the times.

 

00z Euro...wider view...

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Meanwhile, out here in the Valley of the Sun, the forecast calls for 2 consecutive days of 100+ Heat later in the week...Fire Season has come out of the gates fast.  In fact, there was a small brush fire in Fountain Hills last week that was put out rather quickly.  Not so much up in the mountains, however, as there are a couple big fires ongoing.  People are praying that we have bonafide Monsoon this season.  My gut tells me that this year's Monsoon will be beneficial.

 

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

It continues to be dry here in west Michigan this is from the NWS


 

"It continues to be cool and dry. The low here at my house was 33 and it looks like the official low at GRR will be 34. At this time it is clear and 39 here.

It looks like I did not put the discussion in

FOR STARTERS, AS OF THE 10TH OF MAY, AT GRAND RAPIDS, THIS IS THE  
DRIEST YEAR TO DATE (10TH OF MAY) SINCE 2001! GRAND RAPIDS WAS  
5.19 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR TOTAL YEARLY PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS  
A LITTLE BELOW ONLY 1/2 OF NORMAL. AT MUSKEGON IT IS THE DRIEST   
YEAR TO DATE, SINCE 1989! MUSKEGON IS 5.78 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR  
THE YEAR. GOING TO THE MIDWEST CLIMATE CENTER, CLIMATE GROUP 8  
(GRAND RAIDS, HOLLAND, SOUTH HAVE, AND KALAMAZOO) IS, FOR JANUARY  
THROUGH APRIL, IS THE DRIEST SINCE 1958! THE 5.84 INCH MEAN   
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS GROUP WAS ONLY A 1/2 INCH WETTER THAN THE   
DRIEST YEAR, 1934 (5.31"). THIS IS THE 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD (1895   
TO 2021). BY THE WAY,

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Was put in a Frost Advisory last night, but that looks like a mistake.  Has only gotten down to 41 here.  Lots of moisture chances in the next week, and the very warm weekend forecast has been cooled by multiple storm chances.  Our Seniors are done today and this weekend is graduation receptions and the ceremony on Sunday.  Outdoor parties could be affected.  The rest of the school district is done next Wednesday at 11:30 AM.  No hot weather through then, which I won't complain about.

PS - got down to 34 degrees officially yesterday morning, May 11th.  Light frost on my son's car parked outside, and fairly heavy frost on rooftops.

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B3927D4D-E2E4-4975-A8CC-47164D044E3F.jpeg

 

 

 

Hello from Chicago!  I flew back home in the early morning yesterday (7:00am takeoff) and couldn't have asked for a better weather pattern for our flight.  Interestingly, we took a southerly route through NM/OK/KS/MO and then our final descent began as we flew over Burlington, IA and crossed over the Mississippi into IL.  High Pressure dominated the entire trip as we had clear skies and literally zero turbulence.  It was probably the least "bumpy" flight I've taken in recent memory.  I loved looking out the window and seeing all the farmland below and tiny looking semi trucks on the highway. 

I had a 3D visual map playing live and noticed some cities pop up that some of you live in.  The ones that come to mind were Ottumwa, Topeka and Kansas City.  I paid attention to the maps towards the later part of the trip bc I was so tired for the first half of the flight.  I tried taking a nap but the dang kids sitting right behind me (which you will hear in the videos) did not allow me to get a restful nap.  Anyhow, once we got into IL and began lowering in elevation, we entered the cloud level and that is when the plane began to bounce around quite a bit.  They were the "puffy" fair weather cumulus cloud types.  The guy sitting next to me grabbed the seat in front of him and I could tell he got a bit nervous.  I enjoyed it!

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I'll be honest, this cool wx is soo refreshing and enjoyed the day yesterday.  It was a chilly 57F inside the house when I arrived and had to flip on the furnace.  Had it running just a bit ago.  I think the Chicago area has been under a Frost Advisory for 3 or 4 days in a row?  Woah!  Ya, I think it's time for Spring, or rather, Summer to arrive.  All signs are pointing towards exactly that next week!

Geeze, mother nature just doesn't want to play ball for those from I-80 on north...

 

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Boy, by the middle of next week, the majority of the nation will be under a classic Summer pattern with a dominant southerly flow coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico.  A more noticeably humid and warm air mass will be in place.  It's gonna feel like summer!

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Once again there is a good amount of frost here in my area. I had a overnight low of 31 and so far it looks like the official low at Grand Rapids will be 33. And that would become the 7th coldest low for any May 13th of record at GR.  I also hope that this is the last frost of this spring/summer season. Last year the last frost was on May 13th and last fall the 1st frost was on September 19th.   West Michigan looks to remain on the dry side for a while and if that is the case there would tend to be bigger swings in the daily temperatures with warmer highs and cooler lows. At the current time it is clear and 34 here with frost still in the area.

 

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Next week looks warmer here with temps in the mid 70's but no 80 degree weather showing up here for at least the next 7 days.  The biggest reason is rain being in the forecast everyday for the next 7-10 days.  I might need to throw life jackets on my tomato plants.

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
36 minutes ago

Fun fact: On average KC has 11 days of 80 degrees (or greater) in the month of May. So far this May we've had 1 day on May 1st. This forecast will continue that trend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms thrown in beginning tomorrow. #ChillinInKC

 
40
6
21
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AGAIN! I had frost here in KC. Not wide spread, but it was there in low lying areas. I dropped to 34 degrees this morning. 

 

I love you cold weather, but, only come around Dec. through March. 

 

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Not gonna lie, I'm a little salty that central Canada is going to be 20 degrees warmer than central Iowa in the days to come.  We just can't get any warm weather around here this spring.  Please bring on summer and bury this spring forever.  

 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Canadian gives me a high of 90 next week.  GFS 60.  Something has to give.  

Go with the best option, the Euro.  Whatever it says may not be correct this time, but it's a good bet it will be the most accurate choice the majority of the time.  

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

Go with the best option, the Euro.  Whatever it says may not be correct this time, but it's a good bet it will be the most accurate choice the majority of the time.  

Euro is quite warm as well.  Depends on that backdoor front that is showing up next weekend timeframe.  GFS was much warmer in the 12z for Michigan. 

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I sure hope the Euro is right and brings the precip up this way over the weekend.  I went to Menard's and picked up some weed and feed for my lawn.  Does it seem like this year there are more dandelions and other weeds?  It almost feels like its a never ending battle every single year.

There's that imaginary block across the I-80 corridor...

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I'm really digging what the models are showing for mid/late next week...A/C's will be humming...mid/upper 80's???  

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I'm paying attn to the unofficial start to summer aka Memorial Day weekend and the Euro has been advertising an ill-timed cool down for some of us for several runs in a row.  The Euro weeklies continue to show this trend followed by what I have been opined is for Summer heat to build at the tail end of May into June.  The Upper MW will torch IMHO.  Very dry soils, trough in the south, classic Summer Heat Dome in the works up that way.

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Early June Heat...

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@OKwx2k4, the next 45 days look quite stormy and damp/cool.  You may not see what a typical summer usually brings down that way.  Extremely wet pattern...hey, look at the bright side, at least things will be lush and green!  

If the wet pattern remains entrenched across the southern plains into NM, this is going to be a BIG clue for the Monsoon this year.  I'm really hoping this will eventually nudge west in due time by July to incorporate AZ into the action.

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This would certainly benefit those in the drought stricken regions of NM/CO...

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I now have two outdoor temperature sensors, one is in a spot that is some times colder than the other. The overnight low at the colder one was 34 (33.7) and at the warmer one it was 37 (36.8) it looks like the official low at Grand Rapids overnight was 37. At this time it is 40 (on both) here with clear skies. It should be noted that once there is some good air movement they both are generally the same reading.

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The latest Euro has 80s with a dewpoint of 70º next weekend.  I'd rather not jump right into July.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just looked at the 10 day outlook:  Basically low to mid 70's for highs and low to mid 50's for lows with daily chances of showers & thunderstorms.  We usually fluctuate much more than that in mid May.  Things are lush and green around here now, and will only get greener if this forecast holds up.

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We had our first day of diurnally-driven storms yesterday. Another day of that today with potential hail.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

GFS has been showing a tropical system in the Gulf off and on the last few days. The south is getting drenched

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Something like that tends to make it really warm in the GL region.  

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I'm hopeful we'll get some showers later today.  Radar looks decent out west in W IL...meantime, with regards to precip this Spring, ORD is only at 2.31" which would hold the all time driest Spring on record since 1888 I believe it was.  Based on forecast models this week, we will prob add to this total and shy away from breaking this record.  N IL has been unlucky while C & S IL has reaped the rewards from nature...cooler and wetter.  On the bright side, both literally and figuratively speaking, Chicago has seen a lot more sunnier and brighter days this Spring.

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The wait is almost over for many on here that "Real Spring" is finally going to show up for an extended period.  @FAR_Weather will jump right into Summer with early season Heat as temps possibly surge into the low 90's for ND late next week while the majority of us enjoy 80's and DP's in the 60's.  Gotta say, I'm going to enjoy having the windows open in the mornings instead of having the furnace on!  The 00z Euro below indicating by Wed we start feeling like Spring with DP's surging.

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A nice little soaker moved across east-central/southeast Iowa overnight.  I picked up 0.39".  Totals climbed to near 1" down by Sparky.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It might rain later today if the showers can make it to the surface.  So dry here.  I've never seen grass start losing it's green  so early in the season.    We've actually had dust devils in Southern Michigan already this year!

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The rain down my way was very disorganized this morning, heavier more organized rain fell south of me across Southwest Missouri.  I only picked up .1in. Glad that some of you folks up north got a good rain. Rain re-enters my forecast tonight and most of tomorrow should rain.

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The sun is now out and the temperature is now up to 72 here. I just planted my tomato plants for this year and now will plant some of the flower plants that I have before I get any more. The good news is I do NOT have to cut the grass yet and in fact I think I will get the sprinkles out and start the watering season. There are now indications that it could become very warm  later next week.

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I’m in Lamar Colorado for my nephews graduation. Got to witness  a gorgeous supercell thunderstorm last night! First supercell of this year, and it came right to me here in Lamar! Was tornado warned for a while. 

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28 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I’m in Lamar Colorado for my nephews graduation. Got to witness  a gorgeous supercell thunderstorm last night! First supercell of this year, and it came right to me here in Lamar! Was tornado warned for a while. 

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Woah, that looks wild!  Glad you were able to witness such a powerful storm.  It's awesome when nature shows off her power to those wx enthusiasts like us!

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Some thunderstorms are passing just south of James, in between Mason City and Waterloo.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hat tip to Tom. You're right and this pattern is locked down. Almost guaranteed now with about 234 hours of rainfall going through the forecast in the next 10.

June is my only summer month this year.... Maybe. Year without a summer has been on my mind a lot lately.

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As daylight emerges, I am noticing the pavement is damp everywhere except for underneath the trees.  We must have had a very light shower come through overnight.  It's to bad I missed the best rains to my south yesterday.  I'm hopeful later Tue/Wed there will be more widespread rains.  As most of us around the GL's need the moisture, none more so would be @FAR_Weather and that is what the 00z EPS is suggesting through next weekend!

That's quiet the dramatic amount of moisture for the heartland...keep it coming for our ag belt!  

 

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Next weekend is looking mighty fine with mid/upper 80's and sunshine around here.  Summer tease before a backdoor CF sweeps through ushering a "cool breeze" early the following week.

 

 

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I recorded just 0.14" of rain fall last night and overnight. The overnight low here at my house was 51 so much warmer than in the last week or so. The lack of rain and the cold have kept the mosquitoes at bay for now. As stated if the dry conditions continue as we get into June and July we will have a chance of some days that can get warmer then they would other wise but the nights would also be cooler as well and the humidly would be lower. So a day of 85 while warm would not be as bad with less humidly. You would notice the warmth more once it gets into the upper 80's and 90's and if it gets dry enough I would not be too surprised to see a day or more in the mid to upper 90's under the right conditions. At this time it is cloudy and 55 here.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Gosh, I hope the NAM's are right with the slight nudge north with tomorrow's wave....over an inch of rain would be awesome...

I'm not putting money on much rain getting up to Cedar Rapids.  Widespread convection from eastern Kansas into Missouri will probably hog the moisture/focus.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm not putting money on much rain getting up to Cedar Rapids.  Widespread convection from eastern Kansas into Missouri will probably hog the moisture/focus.

On top of that, the dryness around the GL's with the departing HP may be enough to keep the moisture south.  The flow off the lake may also contribute to dry air winning out over here.

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