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Another cloudy day with some lt rain earlier and now again this afternoon. The heavier rain looks like it's staying just east and south of here.

I've had .06" of rain so far today and that now makes 11 out of 20 days with measurable precip so far this month. 

This pattern sucks. It's finally warmed up a bit so that's not bad, but the clouds and lt showers are annoying. What looked like a possible great severe weather setup this weekend too has fizzled thanks to the ridge in the southeast that hasn't let the big upper low out west move anywhere until it weakens and then moves more north than east.

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Another tiny cell moved over us this evening and dropped a quick 0.13".

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Made 80f today and 72 dewpoint, sticky..  only 4/100 today.  But some measurable rain now  5 straight days. About 1.6 since Saturday.  Lawns soft and damp. But not much standing water as can be the case at times in may here

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Flipped the A/C on for the 1st time this season yesterday during the late afternoon.  The drought monitor came out yesterday and NE IL is under a severe drought along with parts of W MI that include the GRR area.  Boy, we certainly need the rain over here.  To put this into perspective, last year ORD had 19.36" of precip to date while this year we have only seen 5.63".  The last 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020) for the month of May, we have had consecutive record setting precip totals while this year we are the 10th driest May.  What a difference it has been.

usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc--web--2021-

 

 

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Another day, another gloomy, wet morning.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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After 20 days May 2021 has a mean temperature at Grand Rapids of 55.2 that is a departure of -2.1. The official high so far has been 86 and the official low was 30. There have been a total of 13 days of below average means and 7 days of above average mean. (today will be the 8th day) So far there has only been 0.70″ of rain fall. The overnight low here at my house was 60 while it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 62. At this time there is hazy and 71 here.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I've been getting between a tenth to .25 in a day.  The weekend had been looking dry but now rain is back in the forecast tomorrow.

i was looking forward to this weekend as it looked like the southeast high would dry us out and give us some sun now all i see is rain and more rain 

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i was looking forward to this weekend as it looked like the southeast high would dry us out and give us some sun now all i see is rain and more rain 

Lots of people with lake plans this weekend, maybe some sun will shine on Sunday.  Next week may not be much better.

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If the Euro Weeklies are right, some places in the central ag belt will need a canoe and may be cause for concern.  Flooding could be a real bad impact if this pattern transpires.  

1.png

 

Geeze, the 12z GFS and other modeling has a continuous wave train pretty much every other day into June.  I know a lot of us may be in need of rain, but too much of a good thing could be impactful.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_43.png

 

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

Flipped the A/C on for the 1st time this season yesterday during the late afternoon.  The drought monitor came out yesterday and NE IL is under a severe drought along with parts of W MI that include the GRR area.  Boy, we certainly need the rain over here.  To put this into perspective, last year ORD had 19.36" of precip to date while this year we have only seen 5.63".  The last 3 years (2018, 2019, 2020) for the month of May, we have had consecutive record setting precip totals while this year we are the 10th driest May.  What a difference it has been.

usdroughtmonitor-weekly-ndmc--web--2021-

 

 

I can confirm in GR that watering has been an everyday occurrence this week just to stave off any browning of the grass.  It's a losing battle.  I can't remember a time it looked this dead of summer this early.  And that's after a cool start to May, but almost no rain.   So yeah it is dry here.    Looks like we may cut into the drought a bit next week, hopefully.  

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco says unsettled pattern for awhile. 


“By Tuesday, this front is trending toward stalling somewhere in the central Plains and could stick around awhile. Also, we get an almost continual flow of rather high PWs for the rest of the forecast and beyond by a consensus of models. We could be setting up for a rather efficient rain event, especially if we wind up getting some training convection.”

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Cedar Rapids continues to be nickel and dimed this week.  My gauge collected 0.05" today.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

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5 hours ago, Sparky said:

I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

While you guys a bit west are wishing for drier weather, folks over here are hoping for wetter weather!  It appears that mother nature will attempt to balance things out around these parts but I'm getting more concerned for multi-day severe wx action days next week across the central ag belt.

0z Euro through next Sat...next Wed/Thu period could showcase an intense wave coming out of the Rockies producing the seasons first MCS or at the very least a widespread squall line???

1.png

 

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Thursday's Euro Weeklies run continues to illustrate a central CONUS deluge....the GOM will be fueling the atmosphere while CF's sweep through the majority of our Sub.  I had an idea that by late May the severe wx threat would shift north and next week it is looking likely that our members in NE/IA will likely see there 1st severe storms.

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6 hours ago, Sparky said:

I got only 0.06” yesterday and 0.07 today.
 

In terms of severe storm and tornado warning counts for the DVN CWA this spring is comparable to 1986, 1987, 1992, & 1993 springs which also had very low counts. But I have fond memories of storms galore in summer of 1992 and 1993, but still maybe not a huge amount of severe wx. Spring of 1992 was extremely dry though and I’m sure in 1993 many farmers and folks along rivers were hoping to never see a repeat!! I recorded nearly 34” of rainfall from June through August of 1993 and my wettest month on record was July of 1992 with around 16”! I don’t have records or remember much of 1986 & ‘87. So this upcoming wetter pattern may just be the start of something? 
The weekend looks pretty good here. Surely we can get some decent storm action next week, hopefully. Farmers here are wishing for a dry week!

Very nice info! Ive only lived in Iowa since 2008. But the summer of 2010 was crazy wet.  A friend ne of Ottumwa  had over 60" for the yr and  lake rathbun was absurdly over 70"  2008 was bad but  seems most the  river flooding originated further north?  Its interesting  to see 1993 started with low  severe  numbers.  Ive barely heard any thunder here this yr. But plenty wet!!

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I woke up to a wet road and driveway. Went to the rain gauge and found out that a whopping 0.03"of rain fell. That brings the May total here at my house to 0.49" the official amount at GRR is 0.70 and to the west of me at Muskegon the official amount is 0.54" The overnight low both here and the airport was 65 and with cloudy skies it is now 68 here. 

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We are waking up to more thick clouds today.  There hasn't been morning sun since last week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

This will be my 8th consecutive day of rain, the record is 10 back in 2017. Total rainfall over the 8 days is 2.76in. The last 4 days .2 or less has fallen each day.

It has already rained today so this is 8 consecutive days for TOP as well. Day 3 was .02 and day 7 was .01, but the other days have been generally around 0.50" or more. I was able to mow yesterday but everything was pretty soggy. More rain forecast for much of the upcoming week. Can you imagine if this was a winter snowy pattern?  Yikes...lol

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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For many days this weekend was looking like at least partly sunny with temps well into the 80s.  Instead, it's more thick clouds with waves of mist and a temp near 70.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For many days this weekend was looking like at least partly sunny with temps well into the 80s.  Instead, it's more thick clouds with waves of mist and a temp near 70.

Yes I was hoping for sunshine. I guess I just need to finish mowing the lawn when the grass is wet. It hasn’t rained much at all. For awhile rain seemed to be heading my way, but it weakened and veered se. of here.

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Today was one of dampest days in this string of  threats of rain  daily.   .26 my home. But .95 surprisingly at our shop east of Ottumwa.  NWS had us a 20% for today  yesterday evening  forecast.   Zero sun and still showering,  Tropical. But high temp 73, not the 80s anticipated  couple days back.

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Only a trace of rain here today, but it was misting off/on all day, which kept the grass wet while I mowed.  The clouds finally cleared and the sun poked out at 7pm.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The signal is growing among the various models for a nasty storm complex to form in NE and head almost due E into IA/IL.  This is going to be the seasons 1st legit severe wx threat for a lot of our members across the central Sub.  Hopefully this won't be a Aug 2020 repeat that happened in IA.

 

00z Euro through Sat morning...

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

The signal is growing among the various models for a nasty storm complex to form in NE and head almost due E into IA/IL.  This is going to be the seasons 1st legit severe wx threat for a lot of our members across the central Sub.  Hopefully this won't be a Aug 2020 repeat that happened in IA.

 

00z Euro through Sat morning...

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NWS Hastings just mentioned this in their morning disco along with potential flooding rains during the week. 

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For the 3rd day in a row the official high at Grand Rapids was 86. Gee I wonder with all of the on line gambling if there is a section for weather betting. Anyway the overnight low here has been 63. And there was no rain fall yesterday here as well. The current temperature here is 68 with cloudy skies. We are going up to Bay City for a day trip and it looks like there could be a good cool down in that area later this afternoon. The forecast is for a back door cold front to come thru and along with a chance of showers will bring the temperatures down to the low 50's by afternoon. It will be just the old times when a cold NE wind would ruin a nice day. There is some rain on radar to the SW of here so we shall see how that plays out.

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For the eighth straight day, thick clouds have greeted me this morning.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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More of the same next week
0nJUMs1r_bigger.jpg

While there will be passing chances for rain the next couple days, it might be the best opportunity you have to get those outdoor chores done. Keep an ear open for a few rumbles of thunder today, but it shouldn't be a total washout.

Washout conditions coming later this week.

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 If I receive rain today and tomorrow which probably have the lower chances of the week it would break the consecutive day record for rainfall. Lots of rain in the forecast next week and the potential is there for the streak to exceed 13 days.

image.png.51f9f384b250cf2d99b008cea179c897.png

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Today has been the first partly sunny day in over a week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I was at a friends family party earlier today before the pneumonia front came through. We slow roasted a 55lbs pig over a fire for 4 hours.  It’s been years since I went to a pig roast.  The smell in the air was amazing when I arrived.  I stuffed my face and when I left it was a chilly 60F.  Ya, it was time to head home and warm up!

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A couple cells just moved through Cedar Rapids and dropped 0.97" of rain in my yard.  There were a couple minor rumbles of thunder, the first thunder this month.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow we were in Midland when the cold front came thru the temperature fell like a rock. It fell from 80 to 58 in the matter of  minutes that was with no rain. By the time we got to Bay City the temperature had fallen to 56. We did picked up our family members and went out to dinner. After dinner the temperature was now down to 50 and very windy. We left Bay City just before 6 and it was 49 with a light mist. On the way home it was light rain until we got to  Shepherd where the rain picked up and we had moderate rain on M 46 until west of Edmore and that is when the rain really came down and became very heavy until south of Sand Lake where it became light and then stopped about 20 miles north of GR. Here at my house I only recorded 0.05" of rain but to the north of here there are fields that are flooded.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

A couple cells just moved through Cedar Rapids and dropped 0.97" of rain in my yard.  There were a couple minor rumbles of thunder, the first thunder this month.

I noticed some cells heading for CR. You got lucky as that was about the heaviest cell in all of Iowa!

BTW, I again picked up measurable rainfall this morning of only 0.04”.

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My company mowed 114 lawns past 7 days.. but still falling behind. So I personally  went out and mowed 4 today.. wouldn't  you know it a rogue shower set up  right  Northern  wapello  county.   Another 35/100 at my home.  Nuts! Measurable  rain 8 of 9 days now.  But creek is clear and kinda low!  Just passed 4 inches for May.

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Its a very cool, damp and foggy 56F this morning...heading way up into the upper 80's today.  It is very rare to rise almost 30 degrees in a single day out here in the MW, esp in moist air.  You typically see these type of temp swings out in the desert regions.  I love the volatility of the weather as it makes things interesting.  It'll feel like summer again by mid afternoon.

 

 

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MDW is looking rather cool and crisp but with plenty of sunshine as Canadian HP dominates the wx pattern.  Some spots may struggle to get out of the 60's on Sat, but Sun and Mon temps boost into the 70's.  Perfect bon fire wx as I'm sure the smell of burning wood will be in the air!  Love it!  Before then, however, Friday looks like a raw, wet, windy day for the lower lakes region as some spots close to the lake may struggle to get out of the 40's!  Yikes!  

0z Euro still advertising widespread regional rains...

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... lol

GFSNGP_prec_kuchsnow_096.png

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 3 (Last: 7/26)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 (Last: 7/26)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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It's hard to say at this range, but the NAM has been indicating somewhat of a Aug '20 repeat...same places in IA???  DP's briefly pop up in S IA and would favor the SE sections where @OttumwaSnomowis located.

 

1.gif

 

namconus_Td2m_ncus_51.png

 

 

@Clinton, this map while 4 days out raises eye brows...the little red sliver just east of KC is Moderate and will prob grow as we get closer.  This will be a big day for severe wx.

Image

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