Jump to content

May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I can’t possibly enjoy the outdoors unless there is some sort of regional drought in progress.

 

bag meme.gif

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord... another day of preference battles.   So stupid!  

I will always enjoy any sunny weather nature sends our way.   It could be in a wet period or in a dry period... does not matter to me.    

Even drier than normal weather for a couple months is still wet here.   I was out there working in mud just now and the grass is soggy.    Which is always the case at this time year.    And its still wetter than normal for the year and the water year.    And we have massive snowpack in the mountains so our water supply is doing great.   

So yeah.    Its a different world up here.    Just accept it.    No one is telling Oregon people not to cheer for rain or worry about drought.   👍

Content is still better than having to endure yours and Phils courtship for most of the past week.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m certain half of this forum would be happier living in Phoenix or Death Valley.

Strawman building... Every. Single. Day.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Content is still better than having to endure yours and Phils courtship for most of the past week.

Yeah... that is pretty stupid as well.   No doubt.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Better conserve those weenie and downvotes...You will be seeing lots of these pictures over the summer!! 

A46AD840-E07F-4E09-8FF3-B3E7CA1DEC34.jpeg

5D767C91-5E92-4EE0-88A4-0677C9608E09.jpeg

I just have no clue why it bothers him if you want sun.   Can you make it sunny?   

He is pissed off at nature and global warming and expanding hadley cells and whatever else he is pissed off about today... but nature does not give a flying crap.   There used to be palm trees in the arctic.   And there used to be ice at the equator.    Nature does not care... and its always changing.   

If it decides to go the other way it gets much colder and wetter here... then we will move.   Life is very short.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WA snowpack update below.    

SEA is still +1.57 for the year... so this 'record dry' has not been enough to even offset the wet weather in January and February.  

Interestingly... the Cedar Lake station near me was about 9 inches above normal for the year at the end of February and then was 9 inches below normal for March and April.   And that puts that station perfectly normal for precip for the year.      

wa snowpack 2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

WA snowpack update below.    

SEA is still +1.57 for the year... so this 'record dry' has not been enough to even offset the wet weather in January and February.  

Interestingly... the Cedar Lake station near me was about 9 inches above normal for the year at the end of February and then was 9 inches below normal for March and April.   And that puts that station perfectly normal for precip for the year.      

wa snowpack 2.png

Someone in the March thread posted horrible looking April precip maps, making it look like we are in a massive drought.  April east of the Cascades is normally dry.  Wenatchee, for example, averages 0.53" of rain, Yakima 0.57.  Spokane is a bit above an inch.

So even a rainless April is only about a half inch below normal for most of Eastern WA.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Good news post: We will soon be entering a regime of IPWP-centered trades w/ IO convection, a critical component in almost every multiyear niña.

image.thumb.png.d94b1132ae835319f1c35d867fa8b29b.png

Also: note the MJO bifurcation/dissolution into a faster propagating CCKW while the lower frequency component slowly propagates eastward thru the IO. That will render unfiltered RMMs difficult if not useless for assessing true state of MJO.

image.thumb.png.de41aaef73091e116f170e98e61ada9d.png
 

Get into June with an E-IO/Maritime Continent low pass signal, and it suddenly becomes a much more productive pattern for -PNA/western troughing.

 

That is great news for the SW where the drought is very real.  👍

We definitely want to stick with the current regime where WA and BC continue to get the bulk of precipitation.    A Nino would give them some hope... but its all good news.   No hope for them.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Someone in the March thread posted horrible looking April precip maps, making it look like we are in a massive drought.  April east of the Cascades is normally dry.  Wenatchee, for example, averages 0.53" of rain, Yakima 0.57.  Spokane is a bit above an inch.

So even a rainless April is only about a half inch below normal for most of Eastern WA.  

Of course it’s a way different story west of the mountains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR shows a decent c-zone firing up later this afternoon and into this evening.    My area will probably get hit pretty good.    Tomorrow looks drier though so that is nice.

 

hrrr-washington-refc_cloud-9917200.png

hrrr-washington-refc_cloud-9931600.png

hrrr-washington-total_precip_inch-9942400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 and mostly cloudy here. Figured may would be wetter but only 0.4” on the euro the next 10 days....still a whole lotta month left to go though. I wouldn’t be surprised if May ended up wetter than April this year like it did last year. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS says the first half of May will be drier than normal...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1166400.png

Could end up being 1st or 2nd driest spring ive recorded. Record is 4.25” in 2019...at 3.84” currently so 2nd place is more likely. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Of course it’s a way different story west of the mountains.

Sure, but April is still relatively dry in Western Oregon and Washington compared to November through February.  Seattle and Portland average about 2.5 inches in April, compared to 5-6 inches in the wettest Winter months.  A 1.5 inch deficit for April is better than a 4.5 inch deficit in December or January.  And actually heavy rain in April in the mountains would erode the snow pack faster than drier weather.

Would much rather have a drier April then in any winter month.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ocean still has water in it.  For now...

 

98593759-1D47-4F56-95BC-E320A0275ED7.jpeg

Unfortunately the sun is in the process of expanding and eventually it will get close enough to evaporate the oceans away.    That will be an incredible salt flat some day.   Get a dune buggy now!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

DFCC9ECF-849E-4281-B23D-E661D3955ECE.thumb.jpeg.76ca23b44f931d6022402ce584883d71.jpegB0BBB15D-83B8-49B0-937F-45E63E84F803.thumb.jpeg.1bae5701197d5b6baae3a3914c74ddbd.jpegBEB53C0A-2DE1-482D-916D-4902E7AE337A.thumb.jpeg.cfa507b293e5bbad1708b74846f563ce.jpeg8CB3286E-DC88-4BC4-9B8D-8D5D8A76C709.thumb.jpeg.f7580bd6f5893b8df188b7f8b4aeff13.jpeg

Drove over to Corvallis and walked around the OSU campus. I’ll be back to stay in September!

The second pic is the greenhouses. I’m not fully decided on major and minor yet but my minor might be agriculture.

Very nice!

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sure, but April is still relatively dry in Western Oregon and Washington compared to November through February.  Seattle and Portland average about 2.5 inches in April, compared to 5-6 inches in the wettest Winter months.  A 1.5 inch deficit for April is better than a 4.5 inch deficit in December or January.  And actually heavy rain in April in the mountains would erode the snow pack faster than drier weather.

Would much rather have a drier April then in any winter month.  

Idk. It’s pretty rare to get warm rain in the mountains in April. Usually if the pattern is active the upper airmasses are still sufficiently cool for snow at pass level or above. Snowpack situation would be a lot better for Oregon right now if it hadn’t been such a warm and dry month.

Drier weather in the winter can mean cold and snow, at least on the west side. Wet weather in April is always nice since it makes things look lush and green. This was a record or near record dry April and March/April combo for many areas on the west side so it’s pretty notable, and has been largely responsible for putting much of Oregon and SW Washington into moderate drought conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Idk. It’s pretty rare to get warm rain in the mountains in April. Usually if the pattern is active the upper airmasses are still sufficiently cool for snow at pass level or above. Snowpack situation would be a lot better for Oregon right now if it hadn’t been such a warm and dry month.

Drier weather in the winter can mean cold and snow, at least on the west side. Wet weather in April is always nice since it makes things look lush and green. This was a record or near record dry April and March/April combo for many areas on the west side so it’s pretty notable.

2nd driest March April combo on record here this year with 3.84” only bested by 3.73” in 2019. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately the sun is in the process of expanding and eventually it will get close enough to evaporate the oceans away.    That will be an incredible salt flat some day.   Get a dune buggy now!

Imagine the temps in the Marianas Trench. Death Valley will seem sub alpine by comparison.

  • Angry 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

DFCC9ECF-849E-4281-B23D-E661D3955ECE.thumb.jpeg.76ca23b44f931d6022402ce584883d71.jpegB0BBB15D-83B8-49B0-937F-45E63E84F803.thumb.jpeg.1bae5701197d5b6baae3a3914c74ddbd.jpegBEB53C0A-2DE1-482D-916D-4902E7AE337A.thumb.jpeg.cfa507b293e5bbad1708b74846f563ce.jpeg8CB3286E-DC88-4BC4-9B8D-8D5D8A76C709.thumb.jpeg.f7580bd6f5893b8df188b7f8b4aeff13.jpeg

Drove over to Corvallis and walked around the OSU campus. I’ll be back to stay in September!

The second pic is the greenhouses. I’m not fully decided on major and minor yet but my minor might be agriculture.

Go Beavers! I graduated from there with a B.S. in Horticultural Science.  Of course that was 30 years ago, but it's still a great school.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up going back to the lake house to mow since the weather turned out way nicer than I was expecting! 

270A8378-EDE9-47E1-AEE1-E1265254815A.jpeg

ABE70D9F-8F9E-48B7-A17F-AA6D258DE558.jpeg

  • Like 5
  • Downvote 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gfs_apcpn_nwus_38.thumb.png.427aad977d4294405b127a6fe5e5cbc0.png

Pretty ideal precip distribution on the 18z GFS. Hopefully it sticks. At the very least, substantial Oregon precip starts as soon as hour 120.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

62 here and kinda breezy. Good day for gettin stuff done. 
 

Azalea is at its peak. Rhodies are a few days away. 
 

 

6A6153B6-A0F0-4C4B-89B1-3C4E7C17B64B.jpeg

A2B706D6-764E-4FC8-B8FC-6FD64D47C1DA.jpeg

Rhododendrons are just starting to go here at my place too. 

  • Like 4

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Ended up going back to the lake house to mow since the weather turned out way nicer than I was expecting! 

270A8378-EDE9-47E1-AEE1-E1265254815A.jpeg

ABE70D9F-8F9E-48B7-A17F-AA6D258DE558.jpeg

Nice!

Jesse should be here soon to puke all over your pics.  😀

Wetter than normal water year... wetter than normal year to date... mountains have almost 150% of normal snowpack... and you take joy in the small things like a sunny day in western WA.   If there was a way to puke on your photos 20 times I would!  

jesse.png

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_apcpn_nwus_38.thumb.png.427aad977d4294405b127a6fe5e5cbc0.png

Pretty ideal precip distribution on the 18z GFS. Hopefully it sticks. At the very least, substantial Oregon precip starts as soon as hour 120.

That would be nice. 

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice!

Jesse should be here soon to puke all over your pics.  😀

Wetter than normal water year... wetter than normal year to date... mountains have almost 150% of normal snowpack... and you take joy in the small things like a sunny day in western WA.   If there was a way to puke on your photos 20 times I would!  

jesse.png

You really do have way more of an issue with what others post and think than any other person on this forum, and it's not even close.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some heavy rain here now... and a loud chorus of frogs out there.  

44 and breezy/dry here. Enjoy the CZ! 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00Z ECMWF was much drier than the last few runs with that late week trough.    

10-day precip total and anomalies...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-0777600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_10day-0777600.png

  • Storm 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 3

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    2. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5818

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 48

      The Total Solar Eclipse of April 8, 2024

×
×
  • Create New...