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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You and Phil are the only ones that do that though, definitely not a prestigious club to belong to.

I rarely do it... and I have seen Andrew do it on many occasions as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently 48 after a high of 60.

.05” on the day, .14” for the month, 22.89” for the year. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Currently 48 after a high of 60.

.05” on the day, .14” for the month, 22.89” for the year. 

Yeah I’m ready for some warmer weather. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Zoomed in image... that is how you do rain.   The rest of you need to take a lesson from King County.  ;)

gfs-deterministic-washington-qpf_anom_16day-1533600.png

Rain hog. Share it with the rest of us.

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Trades are back and here to stay after a 3 week hiatus.

Will be a lot of work to cool down the WPAC/dateline, but I think it’s doable.

34D95B7E-23BE-4D6E-97DA-9C7C2BA90C6E.png

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Zoomed in image... that is how you do rain.   The rest of you need to take a lesson from King County.  ;)

gfs-deterministic-washington-qpf_anom_16day-1533600.png

Pretty amazing they have Wenatchee at -.86 below normal rainfall for the next 2 weeks, considering Wenatchee averages only. 54 inches of rain for the entire month of May.  Makes me wonder where they get their numbers from.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pretty amazing they have Wenatchee at -.86 below normal rainfall for the next 2 weeks, considering Wenatchee averages only. 54 inches of rain for the entire month of May.  Makes me wonder where they get their numbers from.

Most likely a resolution issue.

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pretty amazing they have Wenatchee at -.86 below normal rainfall for the next 2 weeks, considering Wenatchee averages only. 54 inches of rain for the entire month of May.  Makes me wonder where they get their numbers from.

Its the GFS... not as refined as the ECMWF.    I just thought it was funny that King County was green in a sea of brown and red.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trades are back and here to stay after a 3 week hiatus.

Will be a lot of work to cool down the WPAC/dateline, but I think it’s doable.

34D95B7E-23BE-4D6E-97DA-9C7C2BA90C6E.png

Am I in the blue? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Brushfire smoke is back. I don't think DEQ's air quality map is up to the hour, this is at least 150 or so on AQI.

This is like mid-summer smoke. Haven't even had the first storms of the year either.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Brushfire smoke is back. I don't think DEQ's air quality map is up to the hour, this is at least 150 or so on AQI.

This is like mid-summer smoke. Haven't even had the first storms of the year either.

I saw a fire west of Agency Lake when I flew over Monday morning.

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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06z was a step in the right direction.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Its the GFS... not as refined as the ECMWF.    I just thought it was funny that King County was green in a sea of brown and red.

Makes me wonder what kind of a pattern would produce that.  Thinking their anomaly maps are wrong, like what Phil said.  Did it show actual precip amounts instead of anomaly maps?

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31 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like Clearbrook in Whatcom County had its driest March in 118 years of records. And its 2nd driest April on record.

Drought is certainly going to extend regionwide pretty soon. All of Eastern WA is there already.

Driest March/April combo ever at the Cedar Lake station near me... but its been pretty wet since 4/25.  

The other years in the top 5 for driest March/April all had a wet May (1911, 1926, 1941, 2004)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Makes me wonder what kind of a pattern would produce that.  Thinking their anomaly maps are wrong, like what Phil said.  Did it show actual precip amounts instead of anomaly maps?

I am sure it was c-zone related for King County.    Even relatively dry fronts usually kick off c-zones.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw a fire west of Agency Lake when I flew over Monday morning.

I know they are doing some prescribed Burns SE of Bend now, it’s pretty crazy how much smoke they are putting out right over the city.

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Driest March/April combo ever at the Cedar Lake station near me... but its been pretty wet since 4/25.  

The other years in the top 5 for driest March/April all had a wet May (1911, 1926, 1941, 2004)

2004 stayed pretty dry for the most part until August.

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2004 stayed pretty dry for the most part until August.

There was a big rain event up here in late May of 2004.    I remember it well.   

The Snoqualmie Falls station ended up with 5.38 inches in May 2004... and the Cedar Lake station had 9.10 inches that month.   Both of those were well above normal for May.     And there was a similar event in August as well.     The Cedar Lake station had 9.34 inches in August which is about 400% of normal.

That was also the last time the Brood X cicadas emerged... analog?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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After that very dry March/April combo in 2004... the Snoqualmie Falls station had 16.72 inches of rain for the May - September period.   I remember that summer being generally warm and sunny... but there was some big rain events in there too.  

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interestingly... the current SSTA map for the ENSO regions looks very similar to the same day in 2004.

May 2004 on top and current map on the bottom:

 

2004.png

2021 (9).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thanks for pinning the thread; I kept almost accidentally posting on April 2021 every morning.

So apparently prescribed burning is causing this smoke. I'm not the only one noticing how bad the smoke is, and anyone with lung issues should stay indoors here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the current SSTA map for the ENSO regions looks very similar to the same day in 2004.

May 2004 on top and current map on the bottom:

 

2004.png

2021 (9).png

I would like a repeat of 2004-2005. One of the most infamous winters in Tahoe history. In a 3 week period from late Dec to early Jan we had 180" of snow in South Lake Tahoe. Reno crushed a bunch of records with like 60"+ depending on the part of town. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/storms-bring-record-snowfall/

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6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I would like a repeat of 2004-2005. One of the most infamous winters in Tahoe history. In a 3 week period from late Dec to early Jan we had 180" of snow in South Lake Tahoe. Reno crushed a bunch of records with like 60"+ depending on the part of town. 

There was one winter I remember a lot of heavy rains, maybe 04-05 or the next one? At my last apartment when I lived in Hillsboro we had to call someone over to fix a leak that trickled down the wall in my bedroom, and sometimes part of the carpet got wet from the rain.

It was a season no snow happened, so it was either that winter or 05-06, not sure. Was wet to say the least.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was one winter I remember a lot of heavy rains, maybe 04-05 or the next one? At my last apartment when I lived in Hillsboro we had to call someone over to fix a leak that trickled down the wall in my bedroom, and sometimes part of the carpet got wet from the rain.

It was a season no snow happened, so it was either that winter or 05-06, not sure. Was wet to say the least.

Probably 2005-2006. Tahoe had a bunch of rain until March turned cold and buried us. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

There was a big rain event up here in late May of 2004.    I remember it well.   

The Snoqualmie Falls station ended up with 5.38 inches in May 2004... and the Cedar Lake station had 9.10 inches that month.   Both of those were well above normal for May.     And there was a similar event in August as well.     The Cedar Lake station had 9.34 inches in August which is about 400% of normal.

That was also the last time the Brood X cicadas emerged... analog?

2004 was an amazing summer here. Cool, troughy, lots of severe weather and rainfall. That was the summer lightning hit the same tree in our yard twice in 2 weeks (it’s still alive today, remarkably). 

That May was super warm, though. Pretty much the opposite of the projected pattern.

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Got down to 45 this morning up to 52 and sunny. High clouds aren’t far off but it’ll still be a nice warm day today...guessing 71-73 for a high temp here this afternoon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Things are trending slightly drier on the euro here through mid month. Might get 0.20” at best and up to 0.40-0.50” by mid month if the latest run verifies. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 year ago today we had some pretty awesome thunderstorms roll through the area. Yesterday also was the anniversary of the 5/4/17 storms. Don’t have any photos or videos of 2017 but do have some of 2020. Last 2 photos were taken about 20 minutes apart...was pretty epic with the almost full moon shining above the storms. 

0FB1C88F-397B-4C13-B10E-56DFF4667B31.png

24A00AEF-1F51-44BC-8619-9FE60EEFA54A.png

B4C50859-EACF-494B-AAC7-D4FDCA17B6F5.png

9CA29E3A-1B2F-4FA7-A56A-59E02E2EA1A5.jpeg

2F9D9D5B-B0AF-4204-9836-C4EAF54E87C4.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

1 year ago today we had some pretty awesome thunderstorms roll through the area. Yesterday also was the anniversary of the 5/4/17 storms. Don’t have any photos or videos of 2017 but do have some of 2020. 

0FB1C88F-397B-4C13-B10E-56DFF4667B31.png

24A00AEF-1F51-44BC-8619-9FE60EEFA54A.png

B4C50859-EACF-494B-AAC7-D4FDCA17B6F5.png

There was lightning to my north towards the central part of my county after sunset on 05/04/2017. No thunder where I'm at. That one and 05/30/2020 were pretty respectable events, but both narrowly missed my place. Crater Lake NP had a supercell with a wall cloud captured on one of their skycams. I don't think I have it saved but yeah it looked nasty. That was the first tornado warning issued by MFR since August 2005. Most tornadoes in southern and eastern Oregon are warm-cored events, quite different from the Willamette Valley or Clark County when they tend to get ones in a post frontal cold pool environment.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The problem with 2004 as an analog is the relatively cool Indo-Pacific/IO sector. That year was much farther along with the warm pool extension into NPAC vs 2021..was loaded with Pacific forcing. Similar to 2014.

In theory 2021 might try and head there August/September, which is when I’m worried about a western death ridge, but we’re several laps behind 2004 at the moment, and the race is 1/3rd over.

31D2DA73-8750-4FC6-A4F3-1FB4AE82BB71.png

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34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.foxnews.com/science/trillions-of-cicadas-about-to-emerge-across-us
 

Very 1950’s!  Or at least that’s what I’m going with...

Lol. FWIW, they claim they’re emerging earlier due to climate change, but those early emergences have always been confined to urban areas. In both 1987 and 2004 they began emerging here ~ May 15th. In May 1919, which was relatively chilly, records indicate they still began emerging mid-month, around the 15th. Some have theorized they have a diurnal clock, and it’s the urban lighting that tricks them into emerging early in those locations. 

What is peculiar is that, after a decline in the 19th and early 20th centuries, estimated brood-x populations have actually increased substantially here in areas not overrun with urban development. Might be related to the regional green-up in recent decades. Or better horticultural practices. I’m not exactly sure.

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z was a step in the right direction.

Do yourself a favor and don't look at the 12Z GFS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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