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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 61 degrees at 9pm...Feels great outside! 

Still 70 here... summery evening.   Should be a warm night with the mid-level clouds.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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53 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still 61 degrees at 9pm...Feels great outside! 

Still 70 here at 9:45 with a surprisingly brisk east wind.  I had an impressive 77  / 39 here today.  Huge 850 crash over the next 24 hours.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  It appears SEA was able to maintain an inversion today with a high of only 71.  Pretty interesting how the scope of the offshore flow is so knife edge right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Worm out.

Lovely evening to just sit on the deck and listen to the frogs.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1476429371_download(25).thumb.png.0b0ab51705245312682d0b23980047c7.png

Nice evening here, nice and unseasonably (well now seasonably) warm. Unfortunately, the GFS continues to look dry for the foreseeable future. The crippling drought will live on for at least the next week, probably much longer than that if a major (and semi-permanent) pattern change doesn't manifest itself soon enough.

Yesterday brought some nice ACCAS to the skies. I'm so ready for those to substantially convect. 'Tis the season now, just need the right setup.

As Tim mentioned, tomorrow could feature a sharp and interesting cold frontal passage up this way. I think lightning is firmly out of the picture due to uncomfortably low EL's and meager total CAPE, but lapse rates at around 800mb actually look fairly notable, and high humidity at the surface means LCL's will be only ~2k feet ASL. Mix in some conditional speed shear in the lower 100mb, and who the hell knows. I've been surprised before.

Friday should prove to be a more substantial try for convective Spring weather, with a brisk cold lobe advecting aloft, along with moist westerlies at the surface. Glancing at some NAM soundings progged for 20z Friday over the central Sound (shown above), and lapse rates look mean for a fairly simple onshore setup at 900-650mb; consistently hovering in the 2-4°C range, even higher than that in local thermal pockets. Personally loving how separated the instability is from the cold frontal passage, meaning that we won't have to worry about clouding out or a lack of daytime heating; should be an impressive 18-24hr window for convection. Personally speaking, this setup screams lightning to me, and 'lo and behold, the Euro and the NAM both show widespread increased lightning potential over western Washington, especially in the PSCZ around 12-8pm Friday.

If you're a cloud watcher, Friday will be kind to you. I have my camera charging for tomorrow.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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205543666_download(26).thumb.png.cbb4fee76f6a17101d6b559ce8bbb720.png

This afternoon.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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80/42 yesterday. Clear start with lots of afternoon high clouds and east winds.

A mild low of 54 this morning. Very cool sunrise with a warm season convective look to the sky. Lots of altocumulus. Hoping for some decent rainfall the next few days but I won’t hold my breath.

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06z GFS isn't bad. 

Checked out the weekly ENSO update. 3.4 region is at -0.4C. Still looking like we see either negative neutral or a weak Nina. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z GFS isn't bad. 

Checked out the weekly ENSO update. 3.4 region is at -0.4C. Still looking like we see either negative neutral or a weak Nina. 

IMO this is probably a “double dip” -ENSO. Where SST/ONI conditions warm to neutral over the warm season, followed by a return to -ENSO during the autumn. The OKW timing fits decently enough.

I think El Niño is increasingly likely for 2022/23.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So sad to think we are in -ENSO right now.

Perhaps we would be better off with a Nino, perhaps it does not matter at all. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A +32 for the daily contribution for the SOI yesterday.  Looks like the door has closed for a Nino next winter. 

Meanwhile...the models show the temps sinking into the upper 40s by early evening tonight.  Quite a change from the 70 I had last night well after sunset.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So sad to think we are in -ENSO right now.

This is a quick spike and things look pretty good going forward.  Besides the ENSO has been zero for a while now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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28 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So sad to think we are in -ENSO right now.

We’re also in the midst of a record breaking MJO event (highest phase-1 amplitude ever recorded in the month of May).

Given phase-1 in A/M/J is one of the most significant PNW warm signals produced in the MJO index, the fact you haven’t gone into a full blown 2014/15 patterns speaks volumes, IMO.

Funny thing is, this exact same MJO transit in July would likely be a very chilly pattern out there. Just some very unfortunate timing w/ intraseasonal waves relative to seasonal dynamics this year.

But I suspect there should be a re-alignment with time, as this month wears on. It isn’t until Aug/Sep that a more organic/low pass warm signal manifests out there, in my opinion. Though it’s not an easy forecast either way.

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27 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’re also in the midst of a record breaking MJO event (highest phase-1 amplitude ever recorded in the month of May).

Given phase-1 in A/M/J is one of the most significant PNW warm signals produced in the MJO index, the fact you haven’t gone into a full blown 2014/15 patterns speaks volumes, IMO.

Funny thing is, this exact same MJO transit in July would likely be a very chilly pattern out there. Just some very unfortunate timing w/ intraseasonal waves relative to seasonal dynamics this year.

But I suspect there should be a re-alignment with time, as this month wears on. It isn’t until Aug/Sep that a more organic/low pass warm signal manifests out there, in my opinion. Though it’s not an easy forecast either way.

A warm August/September?

😱

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41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a quick spike and things look pretty good going forward.  Besides the ENSO has been zero for a while now.

Its always a quick warm spike and cold dominates.    Its just the reality of our new climate regime. ;)

That is why there has only been 2 days below normal at SEA since April 12th.   

And the ECMWF shows a generally warm west / cold east scenario over the next 10 days.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_anom_10day-1080000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A warm August/September?

😱

Knock me over with a feather!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its always a quick warm spike and cold dominates.    Its just the reality of our new climate regime. ;)

That is why there has only been 2 days below normal at SEA since April 12th.   

And the 00Z ECMWF showed a generally warm west / cold east scenario over the next 10 days.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_anom_10day-1080000.png

850mb anomalies are pretty close to average out there over the last month. In fact there are (slightly) more days with cooler than average 850mb temps vs warmer over the last month.

And yeah, that pattern is bliss. 😍 Just a shame it coincides with final exams, or I’d be outside 6+ hours per day. Still, I’m determined to find a way to take advantage of it, given we likely won’t see weather like this again until mid-October.

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Someone posted a cool link in the Mountain West thread where you can view climate graphs for some cities.   

https://www.climatestations.com/

Here is the graph for Seattle for 1955 and 2020.    And 2021 so far does not look much different than 2020.     1950s regime?

1955.png

2020 1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here are graphs for Portland... the 1870s were crazy wet down there!    But there is not much a signal towards wetter or drier since that time.    Temperatures are definitely warming and the 1950s and early 1960s stands out as cold period.

 

portannp.gif

ptlannt.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The lows have definitely been averaging on the cooler side of things. This is only the third minimum 40 degrees or higher at KLMT so far in 2021. First one was April 20th.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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55 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A warm August/September?

😱

I sure wouldn't mind that outcome. In recent years my hottest month has been July.
Maybe time to change that a bit.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Cool site Tim. Thanks for sharing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A more stable climate like Miami better illustrates the steady effect of global warming...

miamannt.gif

Problem with all these big city stations is they’re all urban/UHI contaminated. For instance, SEA has observed twice as much warming as OLM over their overlapping periods of record.

There aren’t many surface stations out there that aren’t contaminated by UHI. This is why I personally value the radiosonde records over the surface station records. 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Problem with all these big city stations is they’re all urban/UHI contaminated. For instance, SEA has observed twice as much warming as OLM over their overlapping periods of record.

There aren’t many surface stations out there that aren’t contaminated by UHI. This is why I personally value the radiosonde records over the surface station records. 

UHI is a factor. In the summer you can have perfectly average highs at PDX but a crap ton of lows in the 60's which happened a couple times there.

  • Sad 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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20 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Why is the radar down so often? It feels like it has been happening a bunch in the last 2 years or so. 

Tweakers like copper wiring. It's a weird pandemic. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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