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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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Convergence zone is moving south developing over the central sound now. Some sunshine here but cooler today only 50 here at 11am. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Heavy shower moving through. Up to 1.36" on the month. May is already wetter than April was. We will still likely end up below average, but at least we are not headed for a May 2018 like disaster. 

Only 0.56" here so far. And not much in the pipe for the next 10 days. I'm really starting to become worried.

  • Sun 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

A little spring Chinook fishing under the unsettled skies 

732425DF-3055-4B65-AC24-EC9BF847C2A8.png

Haven’t been down to that spot in a couple years now. Nice little park by the bridge there. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Only 0.56" here so far. And not much in the pipe for the next 10 days. I'm really starting to become worried.

Next weekend couple get a decent soaking down that way if the euros right but we will see. Euro actually shows more rain down in western OR than most of western WA. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Torrential rain! 

Looks like the convergence zone is sagging down here. Suns out for now but I’m expecting some more heavy showers like we had early this morning soon. Hopefully some lightning too! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Up to 1.15 now since yesterday afternoon... more heavy rain moving in.  

This system is over-performing out here... similar to the event on Monday evening into Tuesday morning.   Normal rain for May out here is around 3.5 inches in the valley and 5-6 inches at higher elevations.    This system alone might end up delivering 25-30% of the normal rainfall for May.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Significant improvement on the 12z GFS later next week and onward. Now in line with the ECMWF/EPS/CMC solutions.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Significant improvement on the 12z GFS later next week and onward. Now in line with the ECMWF/EPS/CMC solutions.

And now it will all get watered down and dump rain only out here at Randy's house.   As usual. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And now it will all get watered down and dump rain only out here at Randy's house.   As usual. 

Maybe not this time. 🤞 There’s more dynamical support for a deeper, meridional-type trough that could deliver better for southern areas. Not a given, but would be easier to pull off this time.

Sadly, another warm/dry shot is becoming more likely late in the month. But hopefully it’s transient and can yield to a cooler/wetter solution for the drought areas in June.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 12Z EPS is pretty dry over the next 15 days as well...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1684800.png

EPS week 2 looks much better though. 🤞🤞🤞

 

4C50E79A-8E42-4597-BAD6-23AE3A161EDB.png

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe not this time. 🤞 There’s more dynamical support for a deeper, meridional-type trough that could deliver better for southern areas. Not a given, but would be easier to pull off this time.

Sadly, another warm/dry shot is becoming more likely late in the month. But hopefully it’s transient and can yield to a cooler/wetter solution for the drought areas in June.

 

Sweet!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In fact, the 12z EPS has @TT-SEA in a dry bubble week-2 while the rest of the PNW scores above average rainfall.

Should make everyone happy, right? 😂

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Just now, Phil said:

In fact, the 12z EPS has @TT-SEA in a dry bubble week-2 while the rest of the PNW scores above average rainfall.

Should make everyone happy, right? 😂

Except it won't actually happen that way.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Except it won't actually happen that way.   

It’s *theoretically* possible if the trough digs enough, at just the right time. And hey, it’s an ensemble mean and not a stray OP run, so.. 🤷‍♂️ 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hail!

And a new round of activity is firing to the north and west of Seattle and moving to the south and east... going to be a stormy afternoon.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

It’s *theoretically* possible if the trough digs enough, at just the right time. And hey, it’s an ensemble mean and not a stray OP run, so.. 🤷‍♂️ 

Sure... it can definitely happen.   I have seen it many times when systems dive to the south into Oregon.     But the models have been promising that in the mid and long range for weeks and it never seems to happen.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And a new round of activity is firing to the north and west of Seattle and moving to the south and east... going to be a stormy afternoon.  

Nice slug of heavy rain just NW of here looks like I might be in a good spot today! 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure... it can definitely happen.   I have seen it many times when systems dive to the south into Oregon.     But the models have been promising that in the mid and long range for weeks and it never seems to happen.   

Third times the charm, right? The upcoming pattern isn’t as progressive as previous ones. Something to keep in mind.

I just wish it could last longer. Probably only get 10-15 days of solid troughing out there this time before the next ridge moves in around the 25th-28th, +/- a few days.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Third times the charm, right? The upcoming pattern isn’t as progressive as previous ones. Something to keep in mind.

I just wish it could last longer. Probably only get 10-15 days of solid troughing out there this time before the next ridge moves in around the 25th-28th, +/- a few days.

Won't last that long and the ridge timing will move up... count on it. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Though the EPS weeklies don’t quite align timing wise. I’m sort of just extrapolating biases at-range and relying on analogs. But what is evident us lower frequency propagation is centered in the IO, and the active MJO is evident no matter where you look.

If the EPS is right, then we’d move into another intraseasonal Pacific subsidence regime near the solstice, with Indian Ocean (phase 2-4) forcing likely to open July. Which isn’t a warm west pattern at all. But am not convinced it is correct about that.

FC321E4D-33BC-46E8-8DB4-BB73C22578C1.png

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Up to .27 on the day with some sunbreaks. Heavier showers should be moving in soon.

So far .87 for the month, or 41% of the way to normal rainfall for May within the first 7 days.

Hoping for some thunderstorms to develop over the next few hours.

Seems like we are well on our way to a wetter than normal May in the EPSL.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here are a couple of pictures of the rainbow last night, credit to Randy Small photography/Whatcom County Weather FB pageIMG_0806.thumb.JPG.bdbded0d625582d000619e6d79ee7659.JPGIMG_0805.thumb.JPG.b58c1b2e1f4253cc2e53b613d4e63169.JPG

 

I am bummed I missed out on it and the sunset, got the second round of the Covid vaccine Wednesday and felt like hell yesterday.  

 

 

 

2021_05_Sunsets_072.thumb.jpg.5ca5cc0a297404b89f71c7b73937c70b.jpg

It was pretty spectacular here although I got dumped on while taking this shot (as you can see by all the raindrops on the lens).

Yesterday was a fun day in general. Warmest day of the month so far at 67F (way warmer than the 61F from Wednesday) and strongest May wind gust in more than a decade at 33 mph. Then the storm moved through and provided this sunset. I wish I'd gotten out to the water just a few minutes earlier because when the sun was still up in the sky the light was incredible.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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27 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Everything sliding by to my north but makes for some cool looking skies. 

021B31BF-D1FB-4C3D-A253-1EE3F166EC7E.jpeg

C340C839-05CA-42AB-9E43-61393C40588A.jpeg

74276CC6-0A5C-4658-BA3A-88A9C4A5D9FF.jpeg

There was a couple rumbles of thunder and saw some lightning about 45 minutes ago down by Ruston. Didn’t get the lightning on camera but still a cool picture. 

6914803B-E531-4F26-8C4E-841A05F93D95.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

2021_05_Sunsets_072.thumb.jpg.5ca5cc0a297404b89f71c7b73937c70b.jpg

It was pretty spectacular here although I got dumped on while taking this shot (as you can see by all the raindrops on the lens).

Yesterday was a fun day in general. Warmest day of the month so far at 67F (way warmer than the 61F from Wednesday) and strongest May wind gust in more than a decade at 33 mph. Then the storm moved through and provided this sunset. I wish I'd gotten out to the water just a few minutes earlier because when the sun was still up in the sky the light was incredible.

Yeah I was shocked that we didn’t lose power yesterday, it was quite the wind! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There was a couple rumbles of thunder and saw some lightning about 45 minutes ago down by Ruston. Didn’t get the lightning on camera but still a cool picture. 

6914803B-E531-4F26-8C4E-841A05F93D95.jpeg

Yeah I saw some lightning and heard a rumble of thunder. Looks like we took the pics around the same time. 

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55 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

No hail, no rain, no thunder and no fish :(.... quite windy though.   Nest cam back home showed lots of activity though.   Some pretty awesome photos being posted....gotta love Spring !! 

No nothing!

wheres-the-beef-commercial.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Chilly upper 50's today with gusty winds. But in the direct sunlight it's not that cold out I guess.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Chilly upper 50's today with gusty winds. But in the direct sunlight it's not that cold out I guess.

Definitely one of those fun warm/cold days pending sun breaks, showers and winds. I peeled and layered several times while out on the River today.  

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Up to 1.67” this month. Better than I feared. Looking at the models we have a real shot at 3”, still below average, but some cool showers on and off this month. Could be worse. In 2018 and 19 we torched big time in May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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