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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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7 hours ago, JBolin said:

He does, just not as prolific in spring/summer months

Nice to see you man been awhile! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It dropped to a respectable 38 here last night.  Nice to see the chilly / clear nights make a return.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 this morning, a bit warmer than last couple lows. Still just slightly below the normal benchmark for the date.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow! 

B3809E3F-881C-4F78-890A-54DF02005901.jpeg

I might get my latest snowfall since 2012?? (1/2" on 5/25/12)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to snow! 

B3809E3F-881C-4F78-890A-54DF02005901.jpeg

Can't mother nature do this to us well enough in Dec-Jan so we can get an Arctic event down this way? It's been since like Jan 2017 (2-25-19 was not of an Arctic nature and was a large anafrontal setup).

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, ttt said:

ECMWF  00z May 18 

 

https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FAQ_RwBy

Let’s flip this around and you have a deal! I’m ready for a BIG...no a HUGE warm up!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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19 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Can't mother nature do this to us well enough in Dec-Jan so we can get an Arctic event down this way? It's been since like Jan 2017 (2-25-19 was not of an Arctic nature and was a large anafrontal setup).

February '19 might not repeat anytime soon but we could get a January like it I suppose. There aren't many recorded months that snowed all month long at my place (literally) and 2019 did just that.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

February '19 might not repeat anytime soon but we could get a January like it I suppose. There aren't many recorded months that snowed all month long at my place (literally) and 2019 did just that.

This seems to be a rather long time for this part of the region to go without an arctic airmass impacting us. Going at least 5 years without one has never happened on record until now according to ACIS.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Maybe sometime around the 20th we could get a little rain. We shall see. I will be down in Oklahoma then, looks wet down that way. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3.4 ENSO region is still at -0.4C. Looks like our latest ONI came in at -0.8C. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle Times says finally some nice spring weather!  ;)

 

st1.png

Congrats on the transition, didn't realize you were writing for the Times now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Let’s flip this around and you have a deal! I’m ready for a BIG...no a HUGE warm up!! 

I will be game after June 16th, which is when I am getting A/C installed in my house, until then, I would prefer the cold air!

I think I will be able to enjoy the warm or even hot weather more knowing I have the option to come home to a cool house.  Now all I can think about is how hot and unbearable my house will get.*  

 

*The preferences expressed above are strictly my own and not intended to impose, influence or force said preferences on any other forum member or their friends, families, pets or the flora and fauna located at their domicile.

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17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I will be game after June 16th, which is when I am getting A/C installed in my house, until then, I would prefer the cold air!

I think I will be able to enjoy the warm or even hot weather more knowing I have the option to come home to a cool house.  Now all I can think about is how hot and unbearable my house will get.*  

 

*The preferences expressed above are strictly my own and not intended to impose, influence or force said preferences on any other forum member or their friends, families, pets or the flora and fauna located at their domicile.

You will absolutely love it! And yes it makes the hot days WAY more enjoyable! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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44 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I will be game after June 16th, which is when I am getting A/C installed in my house, until then, I would prefer the cold air!

I think I will be able to enjoy the warm or even hot weather more knowing I have the option to come home to a cool house.  Now all I can think about is how hot and unbearable my house will get.*  

 

*The preferences expressed above are strictly my own and not intended to impose, influence or force said preferences on any other forum member or their friends, families, pets or the flora and fauna located at their domicile.

Best investment haha.  Others told me and I didn't believe them until I did it.  I don't mind the heat, but having no place to cool off sucks.  It was especially helpful the last couple of summers with all the smoke.  Was able to keep the house closed up and some of the smoke out etc.

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Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Best investment haha.  Others told me and I didn't believe them until I did it.  I don't mind the heat, but having no place to cool off sucks.  It was especially helpful the last couple of summers with all the smoke.  Was able to keep the house closed up and some of the smoke out etc.

Having grown up in the south, and living in the middle of the Willamette valley near Albany with no trees around and no A/C, I've definitely lived in my fair share of houses that were hot and miserable in the evening.  Up here is not nearly as bad, and we do plan to open windows as much as possible.  The extended periods of smoke we've had in recent years make it tough for me and my allergies and my wife and her asthma, so it will be nice to keep the windows closed and still have a cool house.

I think I will definitely appreciate the heat having a cool house to come home to.  That was definitely the case in the south (cool house plus lots of friends with swimming pools).

I also good friend of mine had it installed for last summer for the first time in his life and said it was a total game changer.

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12Z EPS is dry for the next 15 days while its wet to the north... almost seems like we have a wide Hadley Cell right now.    At least that is what I heard from Phil. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1944000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is dry for the next 15 days while its wet to the north... almost seems like we have a wide Hadley Cell right now.    At least that is what I heard from Phil. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1944000.png

Feels like it’s already been summer for the last few weeks here. Little bit of rain on some days but most of those even had sunshine at some point. Has been one of the nicer springs I can remember. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Feels like it’s already been summer for the last few weeks here. Little bit of rain on some days but most of those even had sunshine at some point. Has been one of the nicer springs I can remember. 

This year has been pretty indistinguishable from any of the past 5-6. Summer well entrenched by the end of April. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Models have really fumbled this MJO.

Remember when it was supposed to attenuate and slowly die in the circle of death before reaching phase-2?

EE7BA1D3-6631-40D5-942E-220EF1F5AEFA.gif

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We might as well make May a summer month.

At least September has trended not quite as hot... Smoke does a great job keeping surface temps down. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Models have really fumbled this MJO.

Remember when it was supposed to attenuate and slowly die in the circle of death before reaching phase-2?

EE7BA1D3-6631-40D5-942E-220EF1F5AEFA.gif

And the early/mid May z500 correlation for p2-p3 transit matches observed pattern relatively well.

FEC3C696-4306-485E-AFA7-F3DD04793C27.png

EACDEC61-8445-4314-81A0-B5ECBECA4957.png

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I'm prepping my 1915-16, 1949-50 analogs for my winter forecast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

And the early/mid May z500 correlation for p2-p3 transit matches observed pattern relatively well.

 

EACDEC61-8445-4314-81A0-B5ECBECA4957.png

EPS continues IO theme beneath MJO propagation across Pacific (w1–>w2 thru destructive interference) so RMM plots won’t pick up MJO itself as coherently as they would in the absence of a standing wave in IO.

AC93EC48-9B7B-4364-BF42-040BA51438F4.png


But the long term is generally phase 3-5 (IO) which sees a changing relationship to CONUS wavetrain as the month progresses. Which is what the ensemble means are picking up on. 

 

1410D49F-32CB-485C-B1B5-33210B31228A.png

A7D51EE3-3740-4D8C-B484-D57EAA2C7F60.png

05196919-4B7C-48DD-B1F7-4C56BFD0F6A6.png

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But the destructive interference between the potential IO standing wave and MJO transit thru IPWP/Pacific is difficult for guidance to resolve. The Euro has historically had a bias towards IO convection and the GFS has a bias to WPAC/WHEM convection, so both will likely display their biases, as to which center it action is dominant.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS continues IO theme beneath MJO propagation across Pacific (w1–>w2 thru destructive interference) so RMM plots won’t pick up MJO itself as coherently as they would in the absence of a standing wave in IO.

But the long term is generally phase 3-5 (IO) which sees a changing relationship to CONUS wavetrain as the month progresses.

AC93EC48-9B7B-4364-BF42-040BA51438F4.png

All of those 

 

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

And the early/mid May z500 correlation for p2-p3 transit matches observed pattern relatively well.

FEC3C696-4306-485E-AFA7-F3DD04793C27.png

EACDEC61-8445-4314-81A0-B5ECBECA4957.png

I just had a flashback to 1985 when I was trying to watch a scrambled Cinemax for anything that possibly resembled a stray boob. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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But the unfortunate reality is that, regardless of whether the IO standing wave dominates (cool outcome) or the transiting MJO dominates (warm outcome) the result still generally leans drier than average 😢 thanks to in-situ boundary conditions (differential deposition/transfer of AAM, wide/poleward NH z-cells, etc).

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Last post of this rant, but the warmth in the IO right now is very impressive, and conditions do favor enhanced convection there going forward.

Not the best situation for the West right now, to say the least, but heading into the summer months, a warm/active IO becomes a much more favorable forcing for troughing in the West (and works to counter 4CH). What we desperately need to avoid is WPAC/Warm Pool forcing (phases 5-7) during J/A/S. If we get stuck with that..the West will almost certainly roast and burn.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

IE, it’s a battle between good and evil (IO vs WPAC).

Who will win?

EE0F2E9A-9C4B-4FAB-980B-DCCEC1DAD94E.png

You need to dumb it down like this more often.    :)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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