Jump to content

May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

Writing is already on the wall. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Writing is already on the wall. 

Not necessarily. But I’ll admit I’ve lost hope for a cool/wet US summer like (a modern version of) 2008 or 1964. Tropics just aren’t going to allow it. 

This deep CONUS troughing in May (and possibly into June?) doesn’t fit the cool summer picture either, ironically. Most of the analogous cases quickly flip to ugly near/just after the summer solstice, as the ASM kicks in.

Of course I’m talking about the CONUS on average/as a whole. Regionally it’s more complicated. 

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not necessarily. But I’ll admit I’ve lost hope for a cool/wet US summer like (a modern version of) 2008 or 1964. Tropics just aren’t going to allow it. 

This deep CONUS troughing in May (and possibly into June?) doesn’t fit the cool summer picture either, ironically. Most of the analogous cases quickly flip to ugly near/just after the summer solstice, as the ASM kicks in.

Of course I’m talking about the CONUS on average/as a whole. Regionally it’s more complicated. 

If we see something no worse than the past two summers I will take it as a win. Given how quickly we are drying out though, a lot of low 90s in the WV seem like a cinch. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we see something no worse than the past two summers I will take it as a win. Given how quickly we are drying out though, a lot of low 90s in the WV seem like a cinch. 

Or this regime could be blowing its load early.

Many of the really ugly summers out there (like 2017 and 2018) didn’t start out that way, but made the move in the midsummer period. While some of the blowtorch springs (like 2016 and 2019) were head-fakes, and backed off during the midsummer period.

There are ways it can super ugly this year. But there are ways to avoid that outcome as well. All lies with the tropics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Or this regime could be blowing its load early.

Many of the really ugly summers out there (like 2017 and 2018) didn’t start out that way, but made the move in the midsummer period. While some of the blowtorch springs (like 2016 and 2019) were head-fakes, and backed off during the midsummer period.

There are ways it can super ugly this year. But there are ways to avoid that outcome as well. All lies with the tropics.

2016 and 2019 started out as Ninos that were trending downward.    That seems to be the best recipe for a cooler and wetter summer around here lately.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2016 and 2019 started out as Ninos that were trending downward.    That seems to be the best recipe for a cooler and wetter summer around here lately.   

2019 stayed full blown +ENSO. The transition to -ENSO was in 2020, which was a drier year out there.

And technically 2017 was +ENSO in Feb/Mar then transitioned (back) to to -ENSO in summer. And we know how that turned out.

In reality it’s not ENSO (by conventional definition) that’s driving it, but rather the varying state of the medium through which the tropics and extratropics communicate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

2019 stayed full blown +ENSO. The transition to -ENSO was in 2020, which was a drier year out there.

And technically 2017 was +ENSO in Feb/Mar then transitioned (back) to to -ENSO in summer. And we know how that turned out.

In reality it’s not ENSO (by conventional definition) that’s driving it, but rather the varying state of the medium through which the tropics and extratropics communicate.

I guess so.

My instinct is telling me it's going to be +TIM index type of summer.   In 2016 and 2019 you were warning us almost daily at this point that summer was going to be wet and cool.

  • lol 1
  • Sun 1
  • Storm 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess so.

My instinct is telling me it's going to be +TIM index type of summer.   In 2016 and 2019 you were warning us almost daily at this point that summer was going to be wet and cool.

Almost certainly will be a dry-leaning summer. But also suspect the heat dome will be displaced somewhat east of its 2014/15/18 location, centered over the Intermountain West this summer (likely on an axis from CA/AZ into CO/WY and the Plains). My major concern is the SW US.

Because we’ll likely have a more prominent NPAC/GOA High this summer vs the +PMM summers of 2014-18, there should be more low level onshore flow (or...less offshore flow?) in the PNW this summer versus those truly horrible ones.

But most likely, that merely serves to ward off the big heat, instead of increasing precipitation substantially.

  • Storm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the dry weather ahead we had to get set up to water the new garden.  My son mounted the sprinkler for us and it works great.  

20210510_165651.jpg

20210510_172055.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Some 70 degree snow forecast for Colorado later this week. I will post any pics that are passed on to me. 

E4647B44-9D9A-4963-A4B3-C3263F6713D8.png

72/43 degree pure snow on Friday! 

  • Like 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see Jesse is still having gastrointestinal issues...Must be from all of those frankfurters he has been consuming lately along with those red downward facing arrows. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Downvote 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I see Jesse is still having gastrointestinal issues...Must be from all of those frankfurters he has been consuming lately along with those red downward facing arrows. 

The weather has been trash this spring and so has most of the discussion here. Negative reacts are the most significant engagement I can really muster anymore and even that's hard some days. :(

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

70/46 day here. Morning clouds afternoon sun.

In a normal May the NW breeze tonight would be signaling a marine push and maybe some rain after a couple mostly sunny days, but instead we have another 7-10 day stretch of wall to wall sunshine and well above average temps ahead with no meaningful rainfall in sight.

I will say it's a good thing there are a lot of worthwhile things in my life to distract me from the weather right now.

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I see Jesse is still having gastrointestinal issues...Must be from all of those frankfurters he has been consuming lately along with those red downward facing arrows. 

Nothing worse than throwing up down votes.

  • lol 1
  • Sick 1
  • Downvote 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro vs GFS D7.

Who will win?!?! 😬😬😬

68CC09E3-19C4-4249-A73D-027E8B96AAF2.gif

Ironically... even the ECMWF was dry at that time and for another 2 days after that.  

But the GFS has been trending more ridgy... I would not be surprised to see the 00Z ECMWF go that way.    It would not really be following the GFS though as they both got 00Z data at the same time.   The GFS just processes it quicker.    

Oh... and they both have that phantom low in the SW US.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Tim is officially in the GFS camp.

Anyone else?

Nah... but if I had to bet it would be on a blend.   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... but if I had to bet it would be on a blend.   

I’m not sure on this one tbh. Could make a case for either.

But, at least for now, the GFS is on its own little island. Would be a major coup worthy of praise if it’s right.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure on this one tbh. Could make a case for either.

But the GFS is on an island right now. Would be a major coup worthy of praise if it’s right.

GEFS is trending that way too... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Sunday morning.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1166400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1166400 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEFS is trending that way too... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Sunday morning.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1166400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1166400 (1).png

Yep GFS/GEFS camp is pushing in.

CMC still in the Euro camp, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep GFS/GEFS camp is pushing in.

CMC still in the Euro camp, though.

It is surprising how often the 00Z GEM can be used to predict the 00Z ECMWF during model battles.   I now lean towards the ECMWF doubling down and not looking like the GFS.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Will it the rest of the month end up sort of warm and dry or really warm and dry? The stakes couldn’t be higher. Stay tuned!!!

You’re really cranky today. What more is there to do? 🙃

  • Excited 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Gotta say that week-2 pattern on the GFS is legit porn. Just wish it was real instead of fantasy.

The 00Z GEFS actually ends up looking that the ECMWF by day 7... so the GFS is on a island.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEFS actually ends up looking that the ECMWF by day 7... so the GFS is on a island.   

It kind of bumped to the GFS solution early on. Something going on over the NPAC D3 that’s throwing one (or both) of the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Just keep touching tips with your new best frenemy and don’t worry about me ;) 

I think we’re all worried about you. ;) 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now this is good news. Tropical WPAC cooling ongoing in conjunction with E-IO warming. Likely MJO driven.

But can it hold/continue?

5710277D-25AD-467E-84C4-E1AD2D50FCF2.png

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My post got deleted when I hit backspace to edit.  Weird. Anyways do you think AC has increased in house holds over the PNW.....hell the west coast since the post 2013 climate shift to the hotter phase we are in?

Even compared to 2009 levels of AC I feel we have had a tick in AC rise where it seemed a lot more spares and you'd be rich to have one or very very dedicated like we were.

Edit: It did it again. I went to edited it and lost it but this time I copied and pasted it.  Win 10 is so f'ked up with how you type something and more often the not you get symbols/stuff other then the character you typed.  Windows 7 and 8 this was no issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, iFred said:

"slight cooling breeze" and not "deadly and devastating marine derecho known to locals as a "marine push"" are giveaways that this isn't TIm's nom de plume.

Huh? 🙃    For some reason your post made me think of this though not in a bad way.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Just got back from 4 days in Vegas. 90's every day. It was pretty uncomfortable most of the day but stayed hydrated enough through several rounds of golf to survive. 

Mid 60's on the trip back to the car tonight felt rather chilly.

I am ready for summer here now

How common is AC in Las Vegas?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...