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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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36 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

38 this morning.  I've seen 30s as late as June 19th, but my latest freeze was May 10th, 2012. 

🥶 Do you think this will be one of those years we see unusually late frosts like a pre 1970s pattern whatever that was?

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32 for a low, crystal blue skies again.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, Link said:

🥶 Do you think this will be one of those years we see unusually late frosts like a pre 1970s pattern whatever that was?

Probably not at my location.  2011 and 2012 were pretty cold La Nina springs.  This La Nina spring has been fairly mild.  Lots of cool nights, but not cold.

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44 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

38 this morning.  I've seen 30s as late as June 19th, but my latest freeze was May 10th, 2012. 

I had a 32 degree low on July 2nd last year but that was a little later than typical. Mid-June I would see a frost and then usually won't see another until late September.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Probably not at my location.  2011 and 2012 were pretty cold La Nina springs.  This La Nina spring has been fairly mild.  Lots of cool nights, but not cold.

I would think at most locations in the PNW those were cool springs, especially 2011. K-Falls had one of the coldest that year.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Seattle Times has a story this morning about a movie being filmed in downtown Seattle this week (directed by Steve Soderbergh) which is also set in Seattle and they wanted dark, rainy weather.    They have been standing around bemoaning all the sunshine and waiting for a cloud to pass over so they can spray everything down to make it look wet and film in short spurts when the sun is not completely out.  😁

https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/movies/how-the-first-afternoon-of-shooting-in-seattle-went-on-the-set-of-steven-soderberghs-movie-kimi/

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle Times has a story this morning about a movie being filmed in downtown Seattle this week (directed by Steve Soderbergh) which is also set in Seattle and they wanted dark, rainy weather.    They have been standing around bemoaning all the sunshine and waiting for a cloud to pass over so they can spray everything down to make it look wet and film in short spurts when the sun is not completely out.  😁

https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/movies/how-the-first-afternoon-of-shooting-in-seattle-went-on-the-set-of-steven-soderberghs-movie-kimi/

Hilarious, they might have to delay the release of the film, and summer is on the way pretty soon 🤪

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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What's with the Seattle Times obsession?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's with the Seattle Times obsession?

Not sure... maybe staying in touch with local news?     We have a subscription and I browse the news every morning.   I realize that is very strange.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

For someone backpacking on the Rogue River Trail next week, I'll definitely be hoping the Euro forecast works out. GFS looks brutal.

Brutal in terms of cold and wet?   Because the 06Z GFS was pretty cold and wet for next week.   The 00Z ECMWF was wet up here at times next week... but showed very little rain down there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Brutal in terms of cold and wet?   Because the 06Z GFS was pretty cold and wet for next week.   The 00Z ECMWF was wet up here at times next week... but showed very little rain down there.

yeah GFS was dragging the cold and wet as far south as Northern California. 

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1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

yeah GFS was dragging the cold and wet as far south as Northern California. 

The 06Z GFS solution would be a blessing for southern Oregon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rather eye popping 6z run for week 2.  Very cool and troughy for a sustained period of time.

Meanwhile another chilly morning today with a low of 40, and a beautiful day in store.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

They can have their blessing after my hike.

Might not get another chance though.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some really impressive temperature swings on the 6z GFS meteograms.  It shows McChord reaching the mid 80s about a week out and then a high of only 49 later in the month with one low in the 30s late month.  This spring has featured some really sharp swings diurnally, day to day, and week to week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might not get another chance though.    

Good point.  We are getting close to the point things normally get pretty dry around here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Some really impressive temperature swings on the 6z GFS meteograms.  It shows McChord reaching the mid 80s about a week out and then a high of only 49 later in the month with one low in the 30s late month.  This spring has featured some really sharp swings diurnally, day to day, and week to week.

Those GFS meteograms are a complete joke (way too extreme in both directions).   But I guess if you are just looking for eye candy on a web site then it satisfies your cravings.    😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really hope there is no light rain on my hike. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

For someone backpacking on the Rogue River Trail next week, I'll definitely be hoping the Euro forecast works out. GFS looks brutal.

Saw a 77 year old man fell off the trail and died recently. Be careful. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some really impressive temperature swings on the 6z GFS meteograms.  It shows McChord reaching the mid 80s about a week out and then a high of only 49 later in the month with one low in the 30s late month.  This spring has featured some really sharp swings diurnally, day to day, and week to week.

Do you have a link to the meteograms?  The site I’ve been using is shutting down. 

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6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Do you have a link to the meteograms?  The site I’ve been using is shutting down. 

Weatherbell has a ton of meteograms, but it’s a subscription service.

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28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really hope there is no light rain on my hike. 

I must be weird but I love rainy, stormy hikes. Especially in the fall when the trees are turning.

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Even though the 12z GFS made a pretty significant move D3-D4 out in the NPAC, it still ends up similar to before, digging that trough offshore.

Interesting.

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even though the 12z GFS made a pretty significant move D3-D4 out in the NPAC, it still ends up similar to before, digging that trough offshore.

Interesting.

 

Cautiously optimistic that we might break the weekend trough and rain cycle this week.      A nice weekend and then rain during the work week... that would be great.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cautiously optimistic that we might break the weekend trough and rain cycle this week.      A nice weekend and then rain during the work week... that would be great.  

Could be. Your guess is as good as mine with this one.

Rely heavily on analogs and there aren’t any good ones for this period that aren’t 50+ years old. So don’t have many arrows in my quiver at the moment.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. Your guess is as good as mine with this one.

Rely heavily on analogs and there aren’t any good ones for this period that aren’t 50+ years old. So don’t have many arrows in my quiver at the moment.

I am just going on the assumption that once we get within 72 hours of the weekend then the models are probably pretty close to reality.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW the GEFS has consolidated on a solution next week. We’ll see if it holds.

It doesn’t dig the trough offshore like the operational but it’s more similar to the OP days 1-5.

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UKMET seasonal just came in. Flips the script somewhat and cancels the western mega drought.

IO/Maritime continent convection?

 

0633316F-48DA-45CC-A973-213150433EE4.png

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12Z ECMWF showing a warm and sunny weekend ahead... as does all the models now.    

And it looks like its on track to crash early next week which would also be nice.   Timing is everything.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Do you have a link to the meteograms?  The site I’ve been using is shutting down. 

WeatherBell is where I view them but as said, it's like $25-$30 a month. I use sports betting winnings to pay for my subscription but only from Nov-Feb. Since I've purchased it, we have proceeded to have a grand total of zero inches of snow and we're still in the midst of like 1500+ days since our last sub-freezing high.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, Euro/EPS held firm. As did GFS.

One of them is bluffing.

I think its going to be troughy and wet in the Monday-Wednesday period.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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