SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Severe clear in Salem. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Finally raining here again. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: Lots O clouds this morning locally 54* Columbia River anti-cloud forcefield 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Going to be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. I could definitely see us getting close to normal precip for the month. We are at 1.69" right now, which is close to normal. We have done pretty well with upslope precip with the weak systems that have moved through. Looks like maybe another 1/2-1" of rain is possible next week if current trends hold. Either way May will not be a repeat of 2018 which is good, June now becomes a pivotal month. Praying for ULL's and onshore flow! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Severe clear in Salem. Assault high capacity melanoma again... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Going to be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. I could definitely see us getting close to normal precip for the month. We are at 1.69" right now, which is close to normal. We have done pretty well with upslope precip with the weak systems that have moved through. Looks like maybe another 1/2-1" of rain is possible next week if current trends hold. Either way May will not be a repeat of 2018 which is good, June now becomes a pivotal month. Praying for ULL's and onshore flow! So far it hasn’t been too bad...if the euro verifies we will be up to about 75% of normal rainfall here. Hasn’t been torching either there’s a couple warm days coming up but nothing too crazy. Might not end up as bad as feared in terms of rainfall. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Going to be interesting to see how the rest of this month plays out. I could definitely see us getting close to normal precip for the month. We are at 1.69" right now, which is close to normal. We have done pretty well with upslope precip with the weak systems that have moved through. Looks like maybe another 1/2-1" of rain is possible next week if current trends hold. Either way May will not be a repeat of 2018 which is good, June now becomes a pivotal month. Praying for ULL's and onshore flow! This June still has the feels of a cool/wet month to me, now more than ever. 3 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: This June still has the feels of a cool/wet month to me, now more than ever. No complaints here Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Nice 12z GFS run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 PDX needs 1.72" of rain the rest of the month to avoid its driest spring on record (1939 at 3.72"). Will be close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: PDX needs 1.72" of rain the rest of the month to avoid its driest spring on record (1939 at 2.72"). Will be close. Wow only 1” of rain this whole spring that’s crazy. Things look good for some rain next week...hopefully deweys cool/wet June works out too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Wow only 1” of rain this whole spring that’s crazy. Things look good for some rain next week...hopefully deweys cool/wet June works out too. I typo'd there, they've had 2.01" of rain so far since March 1. Still pretty a**-backwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: PDX needs 1.72" of rain the rest of the month to avoid its driest spring on record (1939 at 3.72"). Will be close. Do you have info for KLMT? Having under 1" since March 1st even for me is pretty dry. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I typo'd there, they've had 2.01" of rain so far since March 1. Still pretty a**-backwards. This’ll be our 2nd driest most likely here. 2019 had 4.25” at 4.41” currently...hopefully we can get over 5” by the end of the month atleast. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Nice 12z GFS run. Still much wetter after Wednesday than other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said: Columbia River anti-cloud forcefield It really is sad moisture has been denied down south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Do you have info for KLMT? Having under 1" since March 1st even for me is pretty dry. Their history is a little scattered, but it looks like 1924 is the driest spring from their reliable records history at 0,68". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Their history is a little scattered, but it looks like 1924 is the driest spring from their reliable records history at 0,68". Sitting at 0.84" right now I think. At this point last Spring I was over 2" inches, and in 2019 the 3/1 - 5/31 total was over 4". Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 It appears the 12z GFS / ensemble moved up the timing of the arrival of cool air by at least a day over previous runs. Decent shot many places will end up below normal this month. I'm currently running a bit below for the month to date IMBY. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Their history is a little scattered, but it looks like 1924 is the driest spring from their reliable records history at 0,68". I have noticed a lot of the driest spring / spring months were in the good old days. It's not a bad sign in the overall scheme of things. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: So far it hasn’t been too bad...if the euro verifies we will be up to about 75% of normal rainfall here. Hasn’t been torching either there’s a couple warm days coming up but nothing too crazy. Might not end up as bad as feared in terms of rainfall. So far I'm at 0.94" for the month and my normal for the entire month is 3.03. A lot of this troughiness coming up looks more cool than wet, but there will probably be a few wet days in there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 The 12z GFS spits out a low of 36 for McChord later in the month. Pretty solid cold for that late. Looks like a few very cool max temps as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: So far I'm at 0.94" for the month and my normal for the entire month is 3.03. A lot of this troughiness coming up looks more cool than wet, but there will probably be a few wet days in there. I am not sure there will be a prolonged cold period... the 00Z EPS lifted the trough out next week pretty quickly and returns us to a mild pattern. Which has been the way most of the troughing this spring has gone. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: The 12z GFS spits out a low of 36 for McChord later in the month. Pretty solid cold for that late. Looks like a few very cool max temps as well. Meteogram eye candy. Almost always too extreme on the warm and cold sides. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 12Z ECMWF appears to be significantly delaying the cool down and rain early next week. 00Z run on top and the new 12Z run on the bottom for next Tuesday morning: 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Well... the 12Z ECMWF takes away most of the troughing and the rain for next week. I think Jim might have jinxed it again. 1 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Well... the 12Z ECMWF takes away most of the troughing and the rain for next week. I think Jim might have jinxed it again. Junuary wants all the glory. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Junuary wants all the glory. I was sure the other shoe was going to drop in May... now I am starting to doubt it will drop at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 12Z EPS delays the troughing next week compared to the 00Z run... but not as extreme as the 12Z ECMWF. It also lifts the trough out later next week... but again not to the same extent as the ECMWF and brings back a little more troughing by the weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Some random sprinkles here from a partly to mostly sunny sky... the remnants of the front that is shearing apart overhead. Up to 65 now and should be another day at or above 70. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: So far I'm at 0.94" for the month and my normal for the entire month is 3.03. A lot of this troughiness coming up looks more cool than wet, but there will probably be a few wet days in there. 0.57” here so far....we average 2.15” in May. New euro doesn’t look cool or wet at all now which is kind of a bummer. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 FWIW... the control run looks just like the ECMWF. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Some random sprinkles here from a partly to mostly sunny sky... the remnants of the front that is shearing apart overhead. Up to 65 now and should be another day at or above 70. I had a little drizzle early this morning. Sun attempting to pop out now however. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 Chance of storms Friday. usually the first ones are wet, so a light at the end of the tunnel? 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: I had a little drizzle early this morning. Sun attempting to pop out now however. Sun out in full force here now... feels pretty warm out there. Definitely a summery day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the control run looks just like the ECMWF. Thankfully the EPS mean looks nothing like that. I suspect it’s a bum run. But it’s an insanely complicated pattern and distribution of forcings. So who knows. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: ECMWF and Control Run diverge wildly from the EPS mean. Probably (and hopefully) an aberration that will correct by 00z. Yeah... remember when the ECMWF was showing generally dry and warm conditions for this week and the EPS was showing troughing? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... remember when the ECMWF was showing generally dry and warm conditions for this week and the EPS was showing troughing? No. Just fundamental statistical probability. You have 52 perturbations and 6 of them align with the ECMWF OP. So the ECMWF OP run is not the deterministically favored outcome. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong. But it doesn’t have much ensemble support. In the winter we’d be tossing such a run for the same reason. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: No. Just fundamental statistical probability. You have 52 perturbations and 6 of them align with the ECMWF OP. So the ECMWF OP run is not the deterministically favored outcome. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong. But it doesn’t have much ensemble support. In the winter we’d be tossing such a run for the same reason. Its nice that Tropical Tidbits lets you look up runs over the last week. Just 5 days ago... the EPS showed the top image for this Sunday. And now it looks like the bottom image. The EPS has been over-promising troughing as well. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 12, 2021 Report Share Posted May 12, 2021 1) The operational ECMWF was not a statistical outlier during that period. It was an error *across guidance*. Not really comparable. 2) Boundary conditions/forcings have evolved since then. Not an analogous situation (it never is). There’s no scientific basis to assume what happened then will recur. Fact is the OP run is an outlier, for now. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong. But it’s not the statistically favored solution. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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