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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF brings the rain in on Tuesday... which is faster than the 12Z run.   

That’s why I think outlier runs like 12z should (generally) be viewed with caution. 🙂 Of course it could still end up being correct.

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17 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

The overall year of 2009 wasn't as cold as 2008 in the PNW. There was maybe a stretch of 3 years from 2010-2012 that were considered statistically cold. Don't forget we had a hot summer in Jul/Aug 2009, and later that winter was an El Nino season with pretty much little or snow events aside from the one right before my birthday.

But it was enough to be called 'globally cooler' and for the media to definitely notice to the point of saying global warming was 'paused'.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus  https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth’s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade.

I recall initial reports of earth's temps dropped like 0.5 degrees which may not sound like much but it caused some interesting local effects especially in Europe! I think the colder weather of Europe might have shoe horned in the global warming pause theory.  Then in 2013 we had a big flip that put the kibosh on that. 

Certain Ice Age theorists polluted a lot of results trying to deny global warming all together causing further friction so when a lot of locals had unusual snow that helped fuel the divide. You said we didn't get much snow in 2009 but the mountains did!

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11 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 80F and not a cloud in the sky. Now like 15" below normal for the water year on top of -17" last water year and getting worse every day. Ground is cracked and even the weeds are having trouble growing. Grass turning brown...this is very bad.

Do you think we are well on our way of our own version of this? Hope we don't have a hose pipe ban police which many districts of southern England dealt with.

 

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5 hours ago, Link said:

Do you think we are well on our way of our own version of this? Hope we don't have a hose pipe ban police which many districts of southern England dealt with.

 

Interesting that they experienced an extreme drought the same time as the west coast. 1975-1977 was considered the all time mega drought for California. But now 2019-2021 has beaten it for a large part of California, with 2013-2015 coming in 2nd or 3rd place depending on the region of California. Is there currently a large drought in Europe? 

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13 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 82F. Buckle up for like 30+ 90F days.

IBRChris gave me some interesting stats recently. The increase in 90+ days has been accelerating faster at PDX than EUG. Was not expecting that. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Severe clear and 45. I noticed Klamath Basin snowpack is at 17% of average and the farmers are weeping and gnashing their teeth. No water this year. We must protect the longnose sucker. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Very heavy dew this morning.  We just had 29 new windows installed last week. And some of them fogged up on the outside.  Seems strange but I guess that’s common with newer energy efficient windows.  

That's a lot of windows. Your house must be almost as big as Tim's. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's a lot of windows. Your house must be almost as big as Tim's. 

2400 sq feet.  It’s an insane number of windows for a house this side.  The installation guys thought they had made a mistake when they showed up and saw the stacks of windows. 

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Last nights euro run was nice...pretty wet for western WA. Some rain in Oregon but not as much. Hopefully the wetter solutions win this time. 

C41B16EC-9900-42BF-B577-F8B0F4B4285E.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Mark it on the calendar; first time I actually had my window opened the whole night!

Looks like I let in a couple jumping spiders but those don't bug me. They're bros. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Low of 38, about 60 right now. Nice crisp spring air.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Last nights euro run was nice...pretty wet for western WA. Some rain in Oregon but not as much. Hopefully the wetter solutions win this time. 

C41B16EC-9900-42BF-B577-F8B0F4B4285E.jpeg

That 0.3" is gonna be 0.03" in 24 hours.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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43 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mark it on the calendar; first time I actually had my window opened the whole night!

Looks like I let in a couple jumping spiders but those don't bug me. They're bros. 

The rattlesnake getting in was not part of the plan however.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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34 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Days 8-10 on the Euro shows a pretty small gradient between SW’ly jet rain and roasting. 

Yeah I’m hoping the rain gets pushed further south than getting pushed up into BC. Could very well end up getting pushed north instead. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF goes way south with the trough next week.   It stays dry through Tuesday... but this run actually shows more rain in OR than in WA through day 7.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Will be interesting whether the EPS follows suit. 

It does follow suit... big shift south on 12Z EPS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1468800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It was a foggy/DeweyDog drive to work this morning! Sunny and warm now, going to mow when I get home later. 

A3F73212-468A-4127-911C-EB9A0C7482CD.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF goes way south with the trough next week.   It stays dry through Tuesday... but this run actually shows more rain in OR than in WA through day 7.

Brings plenty of rainfall to wide swaths of the West and even some in the Sierra and far north CA where wildfire risk is looking to be extremely high this summer. Would love to see this run verify.

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Here is the 12Z EPS loop for the next 10 days... really nice run.    Trough digs south and moves across the entire West and then lifts out rather quickly too.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1620907200-1620907200-1621771200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Unfortunately... the 12Z EPS is still drier than normal for Oregon.    But its definitely not totally dry and wetter than previous runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_10day-1771200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hard not to like that euro run...more rain where it’s needed down in Oregon. We will see what it looks like in a couple days though hopefully similar to this run. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It does follow suit... big shift south on 12Z EPS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1468800.png

Keep that south trend going. SW US needs all the rainfall in the world. And then some.

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Have a -1.5SD cold airmass overhead here and it’s 71 degrees.

Feels like we’re approaching the point of no return. 😢 Climo changing too fast to keep up.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Cold is a thing of the past.

You basically live in Wilmington, NC now dude.

F*** that. Yellowstone will save us.

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I think Washington had a great display the otehr day, this was on my way into/and at work.  I had to stop and pull over at the river.  Was only the 2nd time I've seen anything other than a standard halo/sun dogs.  No apologies about the logo haha, and Facebook really crapped on the quality too :0

186496949_245381740557361_1456354079973093526_n.jpg

185560586_245379003890968_2404825360943796683_n.jpg

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