Jump to content

May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather.

Bet u like these model runs.

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like we have 4 days of spring remaining. Then it’s onto summer for the next 4 months.

Wake me up when September ends.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather.

Probably the most interesting thing that happened this spring was we had like one or two rumbles of thunder last Friday. Pretty boring besides that.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already down to 50 here, onshore flow doing its thang!!  Feels like it could be more of a mariner layer type summer here, been a few years since we had most days only have a couple hours of peak heating during the summer, lots to love and loathe with that pattern.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really wouldn't pay too close attention to PWAT values and depicted precip this far out... Those are often small-scale details hard to pin down this early. At least at this point we have cooler onshore flow compared to 75F death ridges.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice evening.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW it’s getting real dry out this way as well. Soil is cracking everywhere even under grass and shrubs.

Last time I recall having to water in mid-May was 2012, iirc.

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does feel like dry is going to be the theme this summer. Weather has just had that kind of vibe to it of late.

This spring has been nothing like any of the recent ones preceding wet summers. Lots of clear, cloudless days with any precipitation coming in brief little spritzes, often with the sun shining. Heavier westerly component to the wind as well.

More of a spidey sense thing than rigorous scientific analysis on my part, admittedly.

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well this house was nice while it lasted. Gonna be real interesting to see all the big cats roaming through town as Jasper and Pisgah have ignition and make their way into the city.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking like quite a chilly period coming up on both the GFS and ECMWF.  Going to be fun to see how the details play out.  Possible lows in the 30s, possible max temps over 10 degrees below normal, maybe some hail / thundershowers.  We shall see!

  • Downvote 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Does feel like dry is going to be the theme this summer. Weather has just had that kind of vibe to it of late.

This spring has been nothing like any of the recent ones preceding wet summers. Lots of clear, cloudless days with any precipitation coming in brief little spritzes, often with the sun shining. Heavier westerly component to the wind as well.

More of a spidey sense thing than rigorous scientific analysis on my part, admittedly.

No doubt.  Dominating high pressure over the GOA / NE Pacific spells dry.  Maybe a lot of NW flow situations which means not overly hot.

  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the 00Z EPS loop... if we can't get significant rain from that deep trough this week then it seems unlikely that the pattern after that would deliver much rain either.

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1621036800-1621036800-1622332800-10.gif

  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice looking drought update as we head into the driest time of the year.

 

 

20210511_west_trd.jpg

 

 

West of the mountains, moderate drought now extends up to Olympia, severe drought drought up through Clark County, and extreme drought up to Springfield (Tiger!).With California looking pretty well f'd in the a.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW... the ICON has been trending much farther north with the trough and the 12Z run is even farther north and faster.    Its so different than other models but the fact that its still trending that way and we are only 2 or 3 days out now makes me think it might be onto something.   It does not show the main trough digging into CA but rather moving right through BC and WA and heading east.

Its an interesting scenario... because it means more rain for WA and a much quicker return to ridging as well.  

 

 

icon-all-namer-z500_anom-1621080000-1621080000-1621684800-10.gif

icon-all-namer-total_precip_inch-1684800.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing.   

Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS.    Pretty big change for being within 5 days.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400 (1).png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tim’s post rate picking up as the models pull back on any rain. Just read this is the driest rain year in 127 years in the Klamath basin. Perhaps next year will have no rain!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim’s post rate picking up as the models pull back on any rain. Just read this is the driest rain year in 127 years in the Klamath basin. Perhaps next year will have no rain!

If I had my way... the entire region would get 2-3 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday and then next weekend would be sunny and warm again.    Probably won't get either.  🙁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing.   

Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS.    Pretty big change for being within 5 days.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400 (1).png

Doing a new thing with the Wednesday low. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, GobBluth said:

Doing a new thing with the Wednesday low. 

Yeah...not good for your trip but this would be pretty nice for Oregon.

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-1479600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GFS still leaves enough energy on the western side of that trough earlier in the week during the split to carve out a deep trough over the west by Thursday.    Totally different than the ICON which I assume is completely wrong.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1555200 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got down to 47 this morning up to 55 now. The edge of the clouds juuust barely made it here this morning but already eroded and the sun is out. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS still leaves enough energy on the western side of that trough earlier in the week during the split to carve out a deep trough over the west by Thursday.    Totally different than the ICON which I assume is completely wrong.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1555200 (1).png

Hail King Icon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Can you use your weather machine to make this scenario happen?

We are going camping at Fish Lake next Friday-Sunday so it'd be really nice to have sunny, warm weather. If we can get a nice bout of rain during the week to push us up closer to normal and have a sunny weekend to boot, sign me up.

Is that near Leavenworth?

Unfortunately the 12Z GFS is not nearly as favorable for next weekend.   

  • Angry 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing.   

Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS.    Pretty big change for being within 5 days.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1382400 (1).png

All models were cutting that trough off too much..again. End result is a drier (and flatter) pattern overall.

Seems cool anomalies will be easier to achieve out there than rainfall. Not sure how common that is out there but my recollection is the opposite is usually true?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS is actually a substantial improvement for Oregon.

Jesse/PDX somehow ends up in a dry bubble.

 

83CDE307-11AE-4344-9B53-B840DA5D083A.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also nice to see the southern plains get some rainfall (as currently projected). They’re in the 4CH danger zone for drought this summer, so this might take the edge off a little.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GEFS shows better separation between troughs next weekend compared to the GFS and compared to previous runs of the GEFS.   The GEFS solution might result in nicer weather for Hawkstwelve's camping trip.

12Z GFS on top and 12Z GEFS on the bottom for next Saturday...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1728000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1728000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GEFS shows better separation between troughs next weekend compared to the GFS and compared to previous runs of the GEFS.   The GEFS solution might result in nicer weather for Hawkstwelve's camping trip.

12Z GFS on top and 12Z GEFS on the bottom for next Saturday...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1728000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1728000 (1).png

None of the morning models have come close to the gfs late week low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An intermittent bias across guidance this year has been to cut off ULLs over the NPAC. I’d be wary of any solution which does that, unless there’s a broad consensus for it.

On that note, a select number of GEFS members do cut off the next trough over the GOA/NPAC. But it’s more of an outlier solution for now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...