Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Jesse said: 78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather. Bet u like these model runs. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Looks like we have 4 days of spring remaining. Then it’s onto summer for the next 4 months. Wake me up when September ends. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Jesse said: 78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather. Probably the most interesting thing that happened this spring was we had like one or two rumbles of thunder last Friday. Pretty boring besides that. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Already down to 50 here, onshore flow doing its thang!! Feels like it could be more of a mariner layer type summer here, been a few years since we had most days only have a couple hours of peak heating during the summer, lots to love and loathe with that pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, Phil said: Bet u like these model runs. Yeah it’s been a blessing. About 6” of model rain today alone! The model trees are gonna love this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 View from my cell, I mean lunch room. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 New GFS is a big step back on the moisture in the mid week storm. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, GobBluth said: New GFS is a big step back on the moisture in the mid week storm. Thank god. #saveourbluthhikes 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Thank god. #saveourbluthhikes Well done sir. Pattern is nearly identical to prior runs. Main change region wide is just cold. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Really wouldn't pay too close attention to PWAT values and depicted precip this far out... Those are often small-scale details hard to pin down this early. At least at this point we have cooler onshore flow compared to 75F death ridges. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Nice evening. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Not a good run 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 FWIW it’s getting real dry out this way as well. Soil is cracking everywhere even under grass and shrubs. Last time I recall having to water in mid-May was 2012, iirc. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Not a good run A very expected run. Every system the last few months has gone this way. Euro should follow suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Does feel like dry is going to be the theme this summer. Weather has just had that kind of vibe to it of late. This spring has been nothing like any of the recent ones preceding wet summers. Lots of clear, cloudless days with any precipitation coming in brief little spritzes, often with the sun shining. Heavier westerly component to the wind as well. More of a spidey sense thing than rigorous scientific analysis on my part, admittedly. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Lovely sunset as I was running into work. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 49 minutes ago, MossMan said: Lovely sunset as I was running into work. Looks like you are driving into work actually. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Well this house was nice while it lasted. Gonna be real interesting to see all the big cats roaming through town as Jasper and Pisgah have ignition and make their way into the city. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Looking like quite a chilly period coming up on both the GFS and ECMWF. Going to be fun to see how the details play out. Possible lows in the 30s, possible max temps over 10 degrees below normal, maybe some hail / thundershowers. We shall see! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: Does feel like dry is going to be the theme this summer. Weather has just had that kind of vibe to it of late. This spring has been nothing like any of the recent ones preceding wet summers. Lots of clear, cloudless days with any precipitation coming in brief little spritzes, often with the sun shining. Heavier westerly component to the wind as well. More of a spidey sense thing than rigorous scientific analysis on my part, admittedly. No doubt. Dominating high pressure over the GOA / NE Pacific spells dry. Maybe a lot of NW flow situations which means not overly hot. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Somehow the 06Z GFS manages to find a way to be drier than normal over the next 10 days... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Here is the 00Z EPS loop... if we can't get significant rain from that deep trough this week then it seems unlikely that the pattern after that would deliver much rain either. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Nice looking drought update as we head into the driest time of the year. West of the mountains, moderate drought now extends up to Olympia, severe drought drought up through Clark County, and extreme drought up to Springfield (Tiger!).With California looking pretty well f'd in the a. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 FWIW... the ICON has been trending much farther north with the trough and the 12Z run is even farther north and faster. Its so different than other models but the fact that its still trending that way and we are only 2 or 3 days out now makes me think it might be onto something. It does not show the main trough digging into CA but rather moving right through BC and WA and heading east. Its an interesting scenario... because it means more rain for WA and a much quicker return to ridging as well. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing. Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS. Pretty big change for being within 5 days. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Tim’s post rate picking up as the models pull back on any rain. Just read this is the driest rain year in 127 years in the Klamath basin. Perhaps next year will have no rain! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim’s post rate picking up as the models pull back on any rain. Just read this is the driest rain year in 127 years in the Klamath basin. Perhaps next year will have no rain! If I had my way... the entire region would get 2-3 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday and then next weekend would be sunny and warm again. Probably won't get either. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing. Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS. Pretty big change for being within 5 days. Doing a new thing with the Wednesday low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Just now, GobBluth said: Doing a new thing with the Wednesday low. Yeah...not good for your trip but this would be pretty nice for Oregon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 The 12Z GFS still leaves enough energy on the western side of that trough earlier in the week during the split to carve out a deep trough over the west by Thursday. Totally different than the ICON which I assume is completely wrong. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Got down to 47 this morning up to 55 now. The edge of the clouds juuust barely made it here this morning but already eroded and the sun is out. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z GFS still leaves enough energy on the western side of that trough earlier in the week during the split to carve out a deep trough over the west by Thursday. Totally different than the ICON which I assume is completely wrong. Hail King Icon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Can you use your weather machine to make this scenario happen? We are going camping at Fish Lake next Friday-Sunday so it'd be really nice to have sunny, warm weather. If we can get a nice bout of rain during the week to push us up closer to normal and have a sunny weekend to boot, sign me up. Is that near Leavenworth? Unfortunately the 12Z GFS is not nearly as favorable for next weekend. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: And interestingly the 12Z GFS is kind of doing the same thing. Top image is 12Z GFS yesterday for Tuesday afternoon... and bottom image is the new 12Z GFS. Pretty big change for being within 5 days. All models were cutting that trough off too much..again. End result is a drier (and flatter) pattern overall. Seems cool anomalies will be easier to achieve out there than rainfall. Not sure how common that is out there but my recollection is the opposite is usually true? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 12z GFS is actually a substantial improvement for Oregon. Jesse/PDX somehow ends up in a dry bubble. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Also nice to see the southern plains get some rainfall (as currently projected). They’re in the 4CH danger zone for drought this summer, so this might take the edge off a little. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 The 12Z GEFS shows better separation between troughs next weekend compared to the GFS and compared to previous runs of the GEFS. The GEFS solution might result in nicer weather for Hawkstwelve's camping trip. 12Z GFS on top and 12Z GEFS on the bottom for next Saturday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 12Z GEFS is quite a bit warmer too... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z GEFS shows better separation between troughs next weekend compared to the GFS and compared to previous runs of the GEFS. The GEFS solution might result in nicer weather for Hawkstwelve's camping trip. 12Z GFS on top and 12Z GEFS on the bottom for next Saturday... None of the morning models have come close to the gfs late week low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 An intermittent bias across guidance this year has been to cut off ULLs over the NPAC. I’d be wary of any solution which does that, unless there’s a broad consensus for it. On that note, a select number of GEFS members do cut off the next trough over the GOA/NPAC. But it’s more of an outlier solution for now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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