MossMan Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Is that near Leavenworth? Unfortunately the 12Z GFS is not nearly as favorable for next weekend. I’m hoping to go over to my relatives summer place at Lake Entiat for the first time this season next weekend...C’MON!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 The sun is back out. Atmosphere is back to flatlining and the docs could do nothing to show a pulse. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Also nice to see the southern plains get some rainfall (as currently projected). They’re in the 4CH danger zone for drought this summer, so this might take the edge off a little. Didn't Texas get crazy rainfall totals just a little while ago? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Didn't Texas get crazy rainfall totals just a little while ago? I think so. But from what I recall it was somewhat localized. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I think so. But from what I recall it was somewhat localized. From NWS Austin recently. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 12z Was okay, but that Tuesday night system is basically gone. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Much of the precip on the 12Z ECMWF is with wrap around moisture next weekend... but that is a very tenous set up and will likely change numerous times. That pattern can be a prolific rainfall producer at this time of year though... particularly from the Cascade crest eastward. Sorry Randy! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 12z Was okay, but that Tuesday night system is basically gone. No moist systems until Halloween at this rate. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: From NWS Austin recently. Yeah, so south-central TX in particular. But a large swath of the southern plains still has lower than average soil moisture content and is running rainfall deficits. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Though I’m not sure how accurate this is. Soil conditions here are easily the driest in a decade for this time of year, yet it displays normal. Though it might be a resolution issue since other nearby areas have seen more rainfall. This resolution is analogous to a GFS map from 15 years ago. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Remember how this upcoming trough was supposed to dig and cut off over the NPAC? How many times has this error been repeated across guidance this spring? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 65 currently...on track for low to mid 70s this afternoon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 47 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: From NWS Austin recently. I’ve been down to texas a few times I’ve seen thunderstorms heavy rain events and snow down there even. They had a bit of snow when I was there on New Years and a few weeks after I left there was a few decent snow events. It’s an interesting place...been there during some strong north wind events too. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 I remember Texas for the intense heat with humidity in the late summer. Was at a Rangers game in DFW in late August with the temp at 105F and it felt like a 120F sauna. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I remember Texas for the intense heat with humidity in the late summer. Was at a Rangers game in DFW in late August with the temp at 105F and it felt like a 120F sauna. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 12Z EPS... not too bad. Does not look we are heading into a long-term troughy pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 After today... both SEA and OLM will be right around +1.0 for the month. The anomalies have been in sync between those stations this month. SEA has only had 3 days below normal and OLM has had 4. Obviously we are no longer in a pattern that favors unusually cold nights at OLM despite there being lots of clear skies this month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... not too bad. Does not look we are heading into a long-term troughy pattern. Might’ve sent this to you earlier. Analog based 40 day projection by Dr. Roundy, based off forcing from low pass, MJO and ERW state. Nailed the recent western ridging and the flip to troughing. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html If this accurate, then the deep troughing will be relatively short lived, with a more average, mundane pattern thereafter. At least until later in June, when deeper troughing re-appears on the mean. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, Phil said: Might’ve sent this to you earlier. Analog based 40 day projection by Dr. Roundy, based off forcing from low pass, MJO and ERW state. Nailed the recent western ridging and the flip to troughing. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html If this accurate, then the deep troughing will be relatively short lived, with a more average, mundane pattern thereafter. At least until later in June, when deeper troughing re-appears on the mean. The 500mb pattern this week was "mundane" and it was absolutely gorgeous. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I remember Texas for the intense heat with humidity in the late summer. Was at a Rangers game in DFW in late August with the temp at 105F and it felt like a 120F sauna. I’ve never been down there in the summer time. Have been down there in April, May, September, December and January I believe. Hottest it’s ever been while I was there was low to mid 80s. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, Phil said: Might’ve sent this to you earlier. Analog based 40 day projection by Dr. Roundy, based off forcing from low pass, MJO and ERW state. Nailed the recent western ridging and the flip to troughing. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html If this accurate, then the deep troughing will be relatively short lived, with a more average, mundane pattern thereafter. At least until later in June, when deeper troughing re-appears on the mean. Seems like troughing is continually being watered down or replaced with ridging this whole spring. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 500mb pattern this week was "mundane" and it was absolutely gorgeous. In that case, you’d probably love this torch weather we’ve got coming up. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: In that case, you’d probably love this torch weather we’ve got coming up. Nah... I think this past week here has been near perfection. Low to mid 70s most days and wall to wall sun. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Already up to 70 today beautiful weather. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 First cicada just emerged. Here we go. 1 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Phil said: First cicada just emerged. Here we go. 1 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 75 here now... another perfect day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 15, 2021 Report Share Posted May 15, 2021 Took a drive to Bellevue and back today for work and I saw many many boats being towed...Boat launches must be quite busy on this fine Saturday! Absolute perfection! 3 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 74/47 today. Bouncing between 72 and 73 now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Phil said: First cicada just emerged. Here we go. Wow..just like that full blown emergence. Can’t walk in the grass without stepping on them but will find a way to grab pics. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 2 hours ago, MossMan said: Took a drive to Bellevue and back today for work and I saw many many boats being towed...Boat launches must be quite busy on this fine Saturday! Absolute perfection! We are going to be one of those people tomorrow! Just checked... water temp at Lake Sammamish buoy is up to 67 today. Pretty sure it will reach 69 or 70 tomorrow. My daughter and her friends are going to have a blast tubing. They won't even mind getting sprayed with a water temp around 70 and an air temp near 80. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 The invasion has begun. Every tree blanketed with them. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 You can really hear them crawling out of the ground and molting by the hundreds. IMG_0426.MOV 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 57 minutes ago, Phil said: The invasion has begun. Every tree blanketed with them. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: You can really hear them crawling out of the ground and molting by the hundreds. IMG_0426.MOV Invasion of the body snatchers! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 75/45 with zero critter sounds....unless my frog at the pond is awake 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 77/54 here. Think our first midges of the year made an appearance. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Not good. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: 77/54 here. Think our first midges of the year made an appearance. Fill your windshield fluid up.....stat!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Fill your windshield fluid up.....stat!!! They're more of an issue a bit outside of town. Not so much at my place when you're not around bodies of water. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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