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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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Just now, Phil said:

There are more cutoff lows on the 00z Euro than there are cicadas in the US right now.

Whatever solution keeps us in the long term regional drought conditions we have seen for years now with well above average temps to boot will invariably verify.

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Whatever solution keeps us in the long term regional drought conditions we have seen for years now with well above average temps to boot will invariably verify.

I can empathize. Not a drop of rain here on the 00z Euro, with highs in the mid/upper 90s.

Really early for this. I fear it’s a shot across the bow.

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12 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Seems like troughing is continually being watered down or replaced with ridging this whole spring. 

Ummmmm yeah. For obvious reasons. Are you sure it's not time to replace your 15 year old smoke alarm as it didn't seem to go off last September when the entire west was covered and we had endless ridging. 

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14 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I remember Texas for the intense heat with humidity in the late summer. Was at a Rangers game in DFW in late August with the temp at 105F and it felt like a 120F sauna.

So it's not like Redding's 105F?

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On 5/14/2021 at 5:13 PM, TacomaWaWx said:

I think anyone from Washington who actually really reads and posts here consistently knows about the drought situation down there. It’s been going on the past few years now. 

Then how come it's so cringe worthy anytime they complain at the next weak weather system that skips OR and blasts them with showers?  It feels like this.  😲🔫

Wish there was a way to block out certain users that do that as if you pay attention it can be obvious whom does the complaining each time they get it and go "Ewwwww Yuck!"  like this" 

My favorite quote. 

I enjoy it when we have showers come thru it doesn't ruin my day.

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2 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

4th day in a row with major marine influence here, we get several hours of sun after the layer burns off but no real warming,  I would rather have it rain if this will be an on going theme, only got to 60 today, westerly winds have been dominating. 

Oh God! This ^^^^^.  Can we trade pizza's please since it's obvious how you feel? 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Models are a disaster.

Driest spring on record is nearly a lock. 

00z EPS wasn’t too bad..

..as in, only slightly drier than average, instead of significantly drier than average. 🌵 

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6 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

4th day in a row with major marine influence here, we get several hours of sun after the layer burns off but no real warming,  I would rather have it rain if this will be an on going theme, only got to 60 today, westerly winds have been dominating. 

Marine influence creeping closer to my place.   This morning I could see the fog over by Gig Harbor creeping in.  Pretty sure that’s as far as it will get.  

AA8FB415-F30A-4ECE-9292-52FE200BC7A2.png

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I've never done so many wow/scream reacts on one page here until 05/16/2021. 

Interesting Spring.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Marine influence creeping closer to my place.   This morning I could see the fog over by Gig Harbor creeping in.  Pretty sure that’s as far as it will get.  

AA8FB415-F30A-4ECE-9292-52FE200BC7A2.png

Yeah the last few mornings the fog layer has gotten to right about my house and stopped. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Models are a disaster.

Driest spring on record is nearly a lock. 

I just can’t figure out how we get a big trough like that and basically avoid any rainfall.

But it’s happened with the last few already, so it has recent precedent, unfortunately.

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With the shift north... Tuesday and Wednesday are looking pretty active across western WA.     The ECMWF shows plenty of sun breaks and some vigorous showers both days.    I am guessing there might be a few thunderstorms.

It will be chilly... with highs only reaching the low 60s at best.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I just can’t figure out how we get a big trough like that and basically avoid any rainfall.

But it’s happened with the last few already, so it has recent precedent, unfortunately.

Gfs shows a pretty decent system down there around day 8-10 on the latest run but with how things have been going don’t know how much longer that’ll be showing up. 0.2-0.5” of rain across the western lowlands over the next week is really not enough to do much help. One positive I guess is that we’re not getting more ridging for now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

With the shift north... Tuesday and Wednesday are looking pretty active across western WA.     The ECMWF shows plenty of sun breaks and some vigorous showers both days.    I am guessing there might be a few thunderstorms.

Let’s hope so have only had a couple rumbles of thunder this spring. Had way more thunderstorm activity last May than this one. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Let’s hope so have only had a couple rumbles of thunder this spring. Had way more thunderstorm activity last May than this one. 

I'd be at 10 thunders today in 2016. Where's the beef.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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18 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I just can’t figure out how we get a big trough like that and basically avoid any rainfall.

But it’s happened with the last few already, so it has recent precedent, unfortunately.

Dry seems to be the default. Lowland rain is the new snow!

It's tough because we're squandering opportunity after opportunity with various fronts and cutoff lows just falling completely flat, and we're obviously hurdling fast towards our true dry season anyways when that stuff virtually stops mattering and we're guaranteed to be dry. But the 500mb patterns thus far this spring really don't scream "historically dry" or "historically ridgy".

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Let’s hope so have only had a couple rumbles of thunder this spring. Had way more thunderstorm activity last May than this one. 

Unfortunately the ECMWF shows a sharp cut off with the precip on Tuesday afternoon and evening... with all the action up here and basically nothing from Portland southward.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-1404000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

With the shift north... Tuesday and Wednesday are looking pretty active across western WA.     The ECMWF shows plenty of sun breaks and some vigorous showers both days.    I am guessing there might be a few thunderstorms.

It will be chilly... with highs only reaching the low 60s at best.

Sucky trend, but I guess anything is better than a giant ridge.

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47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dry seems to be the default. Lowland rain is the new snow!

It's tough because we're squandering opportunity after opportunity with various fronts and cutoff lows just falling completely flat, and we're obviously hurdling fast towards our true dry season anyways when that stuff virtually stops mattering and we're guaranteed to be dry. But the 500mb patterns thus far this spring really don't scream "historically dry" or "historically ridgy".

There’s been some decent Aleutian/GOA ridging this spring, and those episodes (should) recur every now and then, at least through July. That would favor more onshore flow and marine influence, which could still be dry, but might keep the biosphere from drying out as quickly.

Either way, it’s not a low frequency blowtorch signal like we saw in 2014 et al, which had lots of Aleutian troughing/+TNH from the get-go. Very little of that in 2021 so far.

August and September could get ugly if the WPAC takes over, but that’s not a given (yet).

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Dry seems to be the default. Lowland rain is the new snow!

It's tough because we're squandering opportunity after opportunity with various fronts and cutoff lows just falling completely flat, and we're obviously hurdling fast towards our true dry season anyways when that stuff virtually stops mattering and we're guaranteed to be dry. But the 500mb patterns thus far this spring really don't scream "historically dry" or "historically ridgy".

It's been an odd spring (-Jim). There have been deep troughs here and there, but almost all of them have had some sort of continental or inside slider-esque nature to them. And once they move out we have capitalized on any and all slightly above average 500mb heights with tons and tons of overachieving warmth during the abundant and long lasting sunny periods. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s been some decent Aleutian/GOA ridging this spring, and those episodes (should) recur every now and then, at least through July. That would favor more onshore flow and marine influence, which could still be dry, but might keep the biosphere from drying out as quickly.

Either way, it’s not a low frequency blowtorch signal like we saw in 2014 et al, which had lots of Aleutian troughing/+TNH from the get-go. Very little of that in 2021 so far.

August and September could get ugly if the WPAC takes over, but that’s not a given (yet).

2014 also featured a considerably wetter spring. Literal opposite of this year. Very wet March, wettish April and May, and a fairly wet and troughy June.

Even summer 2014 at least featured some decent convective opportunities and moist/humid southerly flow.

I have a feeling at this point that the dry theme is going to continue until the Pacific storm season starts back up.

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Already well into the 60s here and sunny.   Getting the boat ready and loaded up and tube blown up for a fun and warm afternoon on the lake.  Should be around 80.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2014 also featured a considerably wetter spring. Literal opposite of this year. Very wet March, wettish April and May, and a fairly wet and troughy June.

Even summer 2014 at least featured some decent convective opportunities and moist/humid southerly flow.

I have a feeling at this point that the dry theme is going to continue until the Pacific storm season starts back up.

There were atmospheric rivers down here in March 2014. I remember a few days it poured literally all afternoon in K-Falls.

None of that since my severe thunderstorm last summer!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sucky trend, but I guess anything is better than a giant ridge.

Ironically a giant ridge might be better at giving us some precip on the backside. Some of our best precip events this time of year can be brought about by southerly (SWrly or SErly) flow as a ULL digs into west side of a sharp ridge progressing to our east.

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One thing that hasn’t changed with this projected pattern is the cool temps in the SW US and more favorable wind stress regime to maintain -PMM/-PDO signature across the subtropical Pacific.

Could help keep the ITCZ in check and prevent a blowtorch summer in the NW. But that’s probably not enough so save CA/4C region from spontaneously combusting in mid/late summer.

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12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's been an odd spring. There have been deep troughs here and there, but almost all of them have had some sort of continental or inside slider-esque nature to them. And once they move out we have capitalized on any and all slightly above average 500mb heights with tons and tons of overachieving warmth during the abundant and long lasting sunny periods.

 

Feels a bit like June-July 2015 did after the record dry pattern took over. Extremely low soil moisture content relative to average likely exacerbated the surface heating with some of those patterns, as it seems to be doing now.

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Just now, Phil said:

One thing that hasn’t changed with this projected pattern is the cool temps in the SW US and more favorable wind stress regime to maintain -PMM/-PDO signature across the subtropical Pacific.

Could help keep the ITCZ in check and prevent a blowtorch summer in the NW. But that’s probably not enough so save CA/4C region from spontaneously combusting in mid/late summer.

So we've gone from cool summer talk to merely  "preventing a blowtorch" 😂

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feels a bit like June-July 2015 did after the record dry pattern took over. Extremely low soil moisture content relative to average likely exacerbated the surface heating with some of those patterns, as it seems to be doing now.

Well, thankfully we’re not heading into a super niño like 2015.

So I doubt the J/J/A pattern will look anything like that year.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There were atmospheric rivers down here in March 2014. I remember a few days it poured literally all afternoon in K-Falls.

None of that since my severe thunderstorm last summer!

Yes, that was a wet couple of months after a mostly bone dry winter. Sadly also the month of the Oso landslide.

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