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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... none of you would be complaining about 20 degrees above normal today.    I will remember that during the next warm spell.  😁

 

And it only took a brief hiatus to one of the sunniest, driest springs on record for you to tell us!

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This is 312hrs out, on a 51 member ensemble mean.

Good grief. Shades of 2016 with this wavetrain.

3452C342-D521-4893-97A1-410840A7731A.png

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

And it only took a brief hiatus to one of the sunniest, driest springs on record for you to tell us!

Yep... its been a lovely spring.     But I was reporting on the current weather.    And I am still looking forward to nicer weather returning.     👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And it only took a brief hiatus to one of the sunniest, driest springs on record for you to tell us!

Imagine another summer like 1964. That would be some top notch entertainment.

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I’ve resigned myself to the fact this summer is going to blowtorch massively. Thought we could pull off a 2008 but that ship has sailed.

Entrenched IPWP w/ dual EHEM/WP low pass signal w/ strong Walker and wide/poleward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). This will paint the entire lower-48 a deep shade from of red (especially mid/late summer) unless something miraculous happens. Could beat 2016.

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Flurries 15 minutes ago here. Occasional sunbreaks and pretty windy out.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve resigned myself to the fact this summer is going to blowtorch massively. Thought we could pull off a 2008 but that ship has sailed.

Entrenched IPWP w/ dual EHEM/WP low pass signal w/ strong Walker and wide/poleward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). This will paint the entire lower-48 a deep shade from of red (especially mid/late summer) unless something miraculous happens. Could beat 2016.

I am sensing a warm and dry summer too.    Just a hunch without any scientific back up.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve resigned myself to the fact this summer is going to blowtorch massively. Thought we could pull off a 2008 but that ship has sailed.

Entrenched IPWP w/ dual EHEM/WP low pass signal w/ strong Walker and wide/poleward WHEM Hadley Cell(s). This will paint the entire lower-48 a deep shade from of red (especially mid/late summer) unless something miraculous happens.

Try as I might.....I always get lost when Phil launches into his alphabet soup.  I did realize today that imaging Christopher Walken is reading Phil's posts to me is a total game changer.  Give it a shot, you will not be disappointed!

 

I too have a gut feeling that this summer is gonna be toasty.  In the near term, I'm not liking the hot weather showing on the maps the first week of June both here and the South east....I'm supposed to be going back to Atlanta to help get my mom moved into an assisted living facility (finally getting her out of the hospital/short term rehab facility), so not looking forward to the heat/humidity.  Hopefully it does provide for some thunderstorm activity at some point while I'm there....

 

 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sensing a warm and dry summer too.    Just a hunch without any scientific back up.    

Grass already looks like late July here.

Even have some green leaves shriveling up and falling off the trees. Though some of this might be cicada related.

 

64869EEF-2790-4197-9B6A-8548C643D21D.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Grass already looks like late July here.

Even have some green leaves shriveling up and falling off the trees. Though some of this might be cicada related.

 

64869EEF-2790-4197-9B6A-8548C643D21D.jpeg

Another possibility is that Jim stopped by and stripped the leaves off your trees.   😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Try as I might.....I always get lost when Phil launches into his alphabet soup.  I did realize today that imaging Christopher Walken is reading Phil's posts to me is a total game changer.  Give it a shot, you will not be disappointed!

 

I too have a gut feeling that this summer is gonna be toasty.  In the near term, I'm not liking the hot weather showing on the maps the first week of June both here and the South east....I'm supposed to be going back to Atlanta to help get my mom moved into an assisted living facility (finally getting her out of the hospital/short term rehab facility), so not looking forward to the heat/humidity.  Hopefully it does provide for some thunderstorm activity at some point while I'm there....

 

 

Hope all goes well with your mom. Wishing you the best.

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My unscientific hunch says summer at least won't be as sizzling as 2015. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Watch us pull off a summer 2019 repeat now. 

Yeah... it usually does not follow any plan that we lay out on here.     Although Phil was telling us the summer of 2019 was going to be wet during the spring.   He is not telling us that about this summer.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

My unscientific hunch says summer at least won't be as sizzling as 2015. 

Perhaps not quite that bad in the PNW, but it could be worse than 2015 in the SW. I think?

Some of the subseasonal analogs suggest troughing returns to the Great Lakes/NE US in June, so maybe the nasty stuff can be delayed out this way. But deterministic guidance isn’t buying it yet. Would be tough to pull off.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Currently 49 in North Bend in the middle of the afternoon... normal high for May 20th at the Snoqualmie Falls station is 67.

Juuuuust a bit colder than normal for this area today.    

Arctic outbreak and 20ft of snow in NB if this was January. Deal with it!

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sensing a warm and dry summer too.    Just a hunch without any scientific back up.    

I'll take what you said if only we somehow miraculously pull off a summer without the fire and smoke. Very difficult to do these past few years.

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May 20th has been cold like this before, just remembered a high of 42 and 0.55" rainfall at KLMT on 5/20/2016.

A little drier and warmer today by the looks of it.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Rain Totals:

Day: 0.12”

Week: 1.14” 

Month: 4.14”

Berry-picking season is soon.. 

Month: T"

Mind sharing? 🤣

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It's 57 degrees.  I think back 3 months ago today.  I would have had the house windows open letting in the fresh air after 1.5 feet of snow a week before.

Today, the house is closed and the heat is on.  This feels more like La Nina than the last several weeks.

PDX still sitting at a trace for the day, just 0.07" here so far.

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5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

It's 57 degrees.  I think back 3 months ago today.  I would have had the house windows open letting in the fresh air after 1.5 feet of snow a week before.

Today, the house is closed and the heat is on.  This feels more like La Nina than the last several weeks.

PDX still sitting at a trace for the day, just 0.07" here so far.

Might be the only time this spring it’s actually felt like a La Niña! 61/42 here today. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Might be the only time this spring it’s actually felt like a La Niña! 61/42 here today. 

Yeah... the last few days have been exactly what I expected all spring.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Man the border guards are being brutal on the showers trying to come down out of Canada.  Heavy rain and lots of lightning both yesterday and today moving south from the Chilliwack to Maple Ridge area, and they just fall apart when they hit the border....I'm guessing they are not too keen on the "invasive drug searches"  😲

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

I'll take what you said if only we somehow miraculously pull off a summer without the fire and smoke. Very difficult to do these past few years.

Technically we did that last year... there was almost no smoke or fires in JJA.    Of course then September happened... but that was in fall.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Currently 49 in North Bend in the middle of the afternoon... normal high for May 20th at the Snoqualmie Falls station is 67.

Juuuuust a bit colder than normal for this area today.    

35 degree afternoon high here today. 27 tonight with snow. Even colder tomorrow with more snow. Normal high in Bozeman is 65 today so you don't have it all that bad.
 

49 sounds downright balmy right now!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

35 degree afternoon high here today. 27 tonight with snow. Even colder tomorrow with more snow.
 

49 sounds downright balmy right now!

The West always gets the good weather these days.

Meanwhile it was 93°F here today. 🥵

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

The West always gets the good weather these days.

Meanwhile it was 93°F here today. 🥵

Yuck.

Saw a bunch of 10-15" snowfall reports in West Central MT today but only a trace here. Expecting 3-6" here tonight.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yuck.

Saw a bunch of 10-15" snowfall reports in West Central MT today but only a trace here. Expecting 3-6" here tonight.

 

I think most people would use that term to describe half a foot of snow in late May.    😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh6-384.thumb.gif.ef273f6ec939fcd73887a4c957368fb0.gif

There is some semblance of hope.... It looks like the next week or so won't be excessively warm or windy. For all the dryness we've been experiencing, a true fire weather pattern has still yet to materialize in short range guidance. After all, cooler cloudier weather, while not necessarily wet, isn't going to entice fire development.

There is a realistic possibility that we can avoid a mega fire event if we limit the amount of dry easterlies this summer (though a few are inevitable.) Admittedly, we are in damage control mode right now; soils south of Portland are pathetically dry and fuel indices are out of this world; but the world hasn't quite ended yet, and there are routes our weather could take (even in a relatively ridgy regime) that could "limit" fire development, so to speak.

Wishing you all to the south the best, this is going to be a scary summer for y'all.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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37 minutes ago, Kayla said:

35 degree afternoon high here today. 27 tonight with snow. Even colder tomorrow with more snow. Normal high in Bozeman is 65 today so you don't have it all that bad.
 

49 sounds downright balmy right now!

It actually started getting nicer during the afternoon as that huge ULL began to nudge eastward towards you and its a pretty nice evening now.    Tomorrow and Saturday look beautiful with highs close 70 tomorrow and into the low 70s on Saturday.    Much closer to normal for late May.

 

nb 5-20.png

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I think most people would use that term to describe half a foot of snow in late May.    😄

While I don't love late May snow I'll take the moisture and will happily take it over 93 degrees with humidity any day!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh6-384.thumb.gif.ef273f6ec939fcd73887a4c957368fb0.gif

There is some semblance of hope.... It looks like the next week or so won't be excessively warm or windy. For all the dryness we've been experiencing, a true fire weather pattern has still yet to materialize in short range guidance. After all, cooler cloudier weather, while not necessarily wet, isn't going to entice fire development.

There is a realistic possibility that we can avoid a mega fire event if we limit the amount of dry easterlies this summer (though a few are inevitable.) Admittedly, we are in damage control mode right now; soils south of Portland are pathetically dry and fuel indices are out of this world; but the world hasn't quite ended yet, and there are routes our weather could take (even in a relatively ridgy regime) that could "limit" fire development, so to speak.

Wishing you all to the south the best, this is going to be a scary summer for y'all.

It’s mid to late May. Fire risk is obviously low in the short term even if favorable fire weather conditions were to develop. We could be in an awful spot in about 2-3 months though, assuming things stay drier than average going forward.

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Just now, Jesse said:

It’s mid to late May. Fire risk is obviously low in the short term even if favorable fire weather conditions were to develop. We could be in an awful spot in about 2-3 months though, assuming things stay drier than average going forward.

Obviously. But with how dry the soils are right now, any day without a crippling fire pattern is a day to enjoy.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Technically we did that last year... there was almost no smoke or fires in JJA.    Of course then September happened... but that was in fall.  

The fact of the matter is that it still happened and it also affected a few members on this forum's properties and also very close to residential areas should not be minimized just because it happened in September. I mean, do we really want to add September to the list now following JJA for the fire season?

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The fact of the matter is that it still and happened and it also affected a few members on this forum's properties and also very close to residential areas should not be minimized just because it happened in September. 

Did not minimize it... just pointing out that there was almost no smoke all of last summer.   People talk like we were choking in smoke from Memorial Day onward but in reality it was a gorgeous summer.   That major trough event on Labor Day came at the worst possible time though.    How many times has Andrew had 60-70 mph east winds there?    That area is normally completely protected from the east wind.    That was an insanely unfortunate situation in terms of timing and strength.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Should be another very photogenic sunset in the Seattle area.   We have a mid level deck from debris clouds with the sun now sinking below the western edge of clouds.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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